HEAT IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION MEASURES FOR THE SUMMER OLYMPIC GAMES UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE AT THE END OF THE 21ST CENTURY

本研究は，環境省・（独）環境再生保全機構の環境研究総合推進費（JPMEERF20222G01），および，国立研究開発法人国立環境研究所「気候変動適応研究プログラム」により実施した．articl

Limiting global warming to 1.5ºC will lower increases in inequalities of four hazard indicators of climate change

Clarifying characteristics of hazards and risks of climate change at 2 °C and 1.5 °C global warming is important for understanding the implications of the Paris Agreement. We perform and analyze large ensembles of 2 °C and 1.5 °C warming simulations. In the 2 °C runs, we find substantial increases in extreme hot days, heavy rainfalls, high streamflow and labor capacity reduction related to heat stress. For example, about half of the world's population is projected to experience a present day 1-in-10 year hot day event every other year at 2 °C warming. The regions with relatively large increases of these four hazard indicators coincide with countries characterized by small CO2 emissions, low-income and high vulnerability. Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, compared to 2 °C, is projected to lower increases in the four hazard indicators especially in those regions.ISSN:1748-9326ISSN:1748-931

Effects of heatwave features on machine-learning-based heat-related ambulance calls prediction models in Japan

Researchers agree that there is substantial evidence of an increasing trend in both the frequency and duration of extreme temperature events. Increasing extreme temperature events will place more pressure on public health and emergency medical resources, and societies will need to find effective and reliable solutions to adapt to hotter summers. This study developed an effective method to predict the number of daily heat-related ambulance calls. Both national- and regional-level models were developed to evaluate the performance of machine-learning–based methods on heat-related ambulance call prediction. The national model showed a high prediction accuracy and can be applied over most regions, while the regional model showed extremely high prediction accuracy in each corresponding region and reliable accuracy in special cases. We found that the introduction of heatwave features, including accumulated heat stress, heat acclimatization, and optimal temperature, significantly improved prediction accuracy. The adjusted coefficient of determination (adjusted R2) of the national model improved from 0.9061 to 0.9659 by including these features, and the adjusted R2 of the regional model also improved from 0.9102 to 0.9860. Furthermore, we used five bias-corrected global climate models (GCMs) to forecast the total number of summer heat-related ambulance calls under three different future climate scenarios nationally and regionally. Our analysis demonstrated that, at the end of the 21st century, the total number of heat-related ambulance calls in Japan will reach approximately 250,000 per year (nearly four times the current amount) under SSP-5.85. Our results suggest that disaster management agencies can use this highly accurate model to forecast potential high emergency medical resource burden caused by extreme heat events, allowing them to raise and improve public awareness and prepare countermeasures in advance. The method proposed in Japan in this paper can be applied to other countries that have relevant data and weather information systems

Feasibility of The Olympic Marathon Under Climatic And Socioeconomic Change

Abstract There are concerns about the impact of climate change on Olympic Games, especially endurance events, such as marathons. In recent competitions, many marathon runners dropped out of their races due to extreme heat, and it is expected that more areas will be unable to host the Olympic Games due to climate change. Here, we show the feasibility of the Olympic marathon considering the variations in climate factors, socioeconomic conditions, and adaptation measures. The number of current possible host cities will decline by up to 24% worldwide by the late 21st century. Dozens of emerging cities, especially in Asia, will not be capable of hosting the marathon under the highest emission scenario. Moving the marathon from August to October and holding the games in multiple cities in the country are effective measures, and they should be considered if we are to maintain the regional diversity of the games.</jats:p

Validation of upper thermal thresholds for outdoor sports using thermal physiology modelling

Abstract Objectives: To validate the upper thresholds of the thermal safety guidelines for multiple outdoor sports in terms of heat illness risk. Methods: The reproducibility of the joint system thermoregulation model (JOS-3) of core temperature has been validated for 18 sports experiments (n=213) and 11 general exercise experiments (n=121) using the Bland–Altman analysis. Core temperatures were predicted using the JOS-3 in conditions corresponding to the upper thresholds, and if the 90th–99.7th percentile core temperature value (corresponding to 0.3%–10% of the participants) exceeded 40℃, the thresholds were judged as potentially hazardous. Revisions are proposed for sports with potentially hazardous thresholds. Results: The JOS-3 could simulate core temperature increases in most experiments (27/29) for six sports and general exercises with an accuracy of 0.5℃, provided that systematic errors were corrected. The current upper thresholds for marathons, triathlons, and football are potentially hazardous. Based on our model settings, the upper thresholds should be revised as follows for participants' safety, depending on the specified percentiles: Football: revise from wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 32℃ to 29–31℃ or not revise. Marathon: revise from WBGT 28℃ to 24–27℃. Triathlon: revise from WBGT 32.2℃ to 23–26℃. Conclusion: The upper thresholds for marathons, triathlons, and football are potentially hazardous and revising the thresholds should be considered. The thermo-physiological model approach can be applied to heat illness risk assessment in sports while avoiding logistical and ethical difficulties, and can potentially contribute to such assessments in various sports and conditions.</jats:p

日本国内842都市を対象とした時別の湿球黒球温度（WBGT）将来予測データ

本データセットには、2030年から2100年までの、日本の842都市を対象とした湿球黒球温度(WBGT)の予測値（時別、4～10月まで）が格納されている。予測は、機械学習手法の1つであるeXtreme Gradient Boostingを用いて、過去の時別WBGTと日別気象変数の関係を学習して構築したモデルを、日本域の将来気候シナリオデータ（NIES2020）の日別値に適用して行った。過去（1980～2014年）期間のデータも参考として提供する。This dataset contains predicted values (hourly, from April to October) of wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) for 842 cities in Japan from 2030 to 2100. The predictions were made by applying a model constructed using eXtreme Gradient Boosting, a machine learning method, to learn the relationship between hourly WBGT and daily meteorological variables in the past, to the daily values of the future climate scenario data for Japan (NIES2020). Data for the past period (1980-2014) is also provided as a reference.[貢献者] 　データ収集者：石崎 紀子 　監督者：肱岡 靖明 [助成情報] 　国立環境研究所 気候変動適応研究プログラム 　環境省・環境再生保全機構 環境研究総合推進費　（JPMEERF20231007,JPMEERF23S21120)[Contributors] 　Data Collector : ISHIZAKI,Noriko 　Supervisor : HIJIOKA, Yasuaki [Fund] Climate Change Adaptation Research Program of National Institute for Environmental Studies Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF20231007, JPMEERF23S21120) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency provided by Ministry of the Environment of Japa

Unlocking the potential of forage fish to reduce the global burden of disease

Methods We based our study on datasets of red meat projections in 2050 for 137 countries and forage fish catches. We replaced the red meat consumption in each country with forage fish (from marine habitats), without exceeding the potential supply of forage fish. We used a comparative risk assessment framework to investigate how such substitutions could reduce the global burden of diet-related NCDs in adults.Results The results of our study show that forage fish may replace only a fraction (approximately 8%) of the world’s red meat due to its limited supply, but it may increase global daily per capita fish consumption close to the recommended level. Such a substitution could avoid 0.5–0.75 million deaths and 8–15 million disability-adjusted life years, concentrated in low- and middle-income countries. Forage fish as an alternative to red meat could double (or more) the number of deaths that could be avoided by simply reducing red meat consumption.Conclusions Our analysis suggests that forage fish is a promising alternative to red meat. Policies targeting the allocation of forage fish to regions where they are needed, such as the Global South, could be more effective in maximising the potential of forage fish to reduce the global burden of disease