NIAC Swarm Flyby Gravimetry Phase II Report

This NASA Innovative Advanced Concept (NIAC) grant has enabled the research and development of a method for conducting small body gravimetry from a spacecraft, using relative measurements to a set of deployed test-masses. The test-masses are tracked from a host spacecraft, which dispenses them near to the small body's surface. Thanks to this close proximity, the probes' orbits can be highly perturbed, which yields useful gravimetric measurements. The most readily achievable approach for tracking the probes is to use an optical instrument on- board the spacecraft. The probes then need only be reflective to sunlight. This implementation, called optical gravimetry (OpGrav), has the fewest requirements for the host spacecraft and probes.The results of this study indicate that OpGrav is feasible and offers meaningful improvement over existing methods. Parametric studies suggest roughly an order of magnitude improvement in accuracy or asteroid accessibility (how small an asteroid one can measure) over Earth-based Doppler-only mass estimation. This exponentially expands the number of potential near-Earth objects that one could study, which has implications for planetary defense.As a sample mission, we evaluated OpGrav as an added instrument on a main- belt asteroid tour mission. In this case, simulations show that OpGrav would increase the number of asteroid mass estimates from 3 of 9 to 7 of 9. That is, OpGrav has sufficient sensitivity to offer utility in missions for which it is not explicitly designed for.We designed and fabricated a prototype hardware implementation for this concept called the Small-body In-situ Multi-probe Mass Estimation Experiment (SIMMEE). This hardware provides a basis for many inputs into the simulations and grounds the models with physical values. The primary design driver for the hardware is a long life, on the order of five years prior to operation, and a need for high pointing accuracy to enable flybys of the smallest objects.The next steps include further hardware testing and extension of the concept to rendezvous cases. We believe that this concept offers planetary scientists a new and relevant means of better understanding small-bodies

Swarm Flyby Gravimetry

This study describes a new technology for discerning the gravity fields and mass distribution of a solar system small body, without requiring dedicated orbiters or landers. Instead of a lander, a spacecraft releases a collection of small, simple probes during a flyby past an asteroid or comet. By tracking those probes from the host spacecraft, one can estimate the asteroid's gravity field and infer its underlying composition and structure. This approach offers a diverse measurement set,equivalent to planning and executing many independent and unique flyby encounters of a single spacecraft. This report assesses a feasible hardware implementation, derives the underlying models,and analyzes the performance of this concept via simulation.In terms of hardware, a small, low mass, low cost implementation is presented, which consists of a dispenser and probes. The dispenser contains roughly 12 probes in a tube and has a total size commensurate with a 6U P-Pod. The probes are housed in disc shaped sabots. When commanded,the dispenser ejects the top-most probe using a linear motor. The ejected probe separates from its sabots and unfolds using internal springs. There are two types of probes, each designed for a particular tracking modality. The reflective probe type, tracked by a telescope, unfolds to forma diffusely reflective sphere. The retroreflector probe type, tracked by a lidar, unfolds to form a corner-cube retroreflector assembly. Both types are designed to spherical so that their attitude doesn't affect the spacecraft's tracking performance.This analysis indicates that the point-mass term of small bodies larger than roughly 500 m in diameter can be observed from a host spacecraft that tracks locally deployed probes throughout a flyby to an uncertainty of better than 5%. The conditions by which this measurement is possible depends on the characteristics of the asteroid (size, type), the flyby velocity, and the type of tracking available (angles-only or angles+ranging). For most encounters, a few (1-3) well placed probes can be very effective, with marginal improvement for additional probes. Given realistic deployment errors, an encounter may require roughly 10-12 probes to ensure that 1-3 achieve their target. Long duration tracking of probes flying by large asteroids (>5 km diameter) can sometimes provide observability of the gravity field's first spherical harmonic, J( sub 2). In summary, this method offers a feasible, affordable approach to enabling or augmenting flyby science

Length Scaling In Spacecraft Dynamics

This research evaluates the length-dependence of a number of space environmental accelerations, both orbital and angular. Many non-gravitational effects accelerate a smaller body more than a larger body, thanks to ratios such as area-to-mass that vary inversely with characteristic length. This research studies these accelerations, and the corresponding dynamics, with an interest in applying the results to methods of propellant-free spacecraft propulsion. After surveying space environmental accelerations, the analysis focuses on three particular cases: solar radiation pressure, aerodynamic drag, and the Lorentz force. Each of these accelerations has an explicit dependence on length-scaling, such that millimeter-scale bodies experience characteristically larger magnitudes of acceleration than typical spacecraft. For the case of solar-radiation pressure, a flat integrated circuit is considered as a low-cost, feasible solar sail with passive, locally and/or globally stable attitude control. The modified orbital and attitude dynamics are considered for heliocentric, geocentric, and three-body orbits. For aerodynamic drag, a similar thin-plate integrated circuit bus is considered for atmospheric re-entry. Here, the spacecraft's cross-sectional area-to-mass ratio drives the magnitude of drag. So, small bodies can remove orbital kinetic energy very efficiently. Further, length-scaling laws for thermodynamics and fluid mechanics show that a very small spacecraft can even survive the intense re-entry thermal environment without burning-up or requiring active control. Research on the Lorentz force has found that an orbiting body with an electrostatic charge can interact with a planetary magnetic field and experience a force. In this case, the driving parameter is the electrostatic charge-to-mass ratio, a quantity that depends on the inverse square of characteristic length. This analysis presents a proposal for a small spacecraft that can demonstrate the Lorentz force in Earth orbit. A sample low charge-to-mass mission is proposed, wherein the Lorentz force is considered for Jovian capture and orbit circularization. The Lorentz force is also evaluated in relation to the so-called Earth Flyby Anomaly, in which an unknown acceleration affected the orbit of six spacecraft as they were executing Earth gravity assists. This research finds that the Lorentz force cannot be associated with the unknown acceleration, in spite of having similar characteristics

The use of representative community samples to assess SARS-CoV-2 lineage competition: Alpha outcompetes Beta and wild-type in England from January to March 2021.

Genomic surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 lineages informs our understanding of possible future changes in transmissibility and vaccine efficacy and will be a high priority for public health for the foreseeable future. However, small changes in the frequency of one lineage over another are often difficult to interpret because surveillance samples are obtained using a variety of methods all of which are known to contain biases. As a case study, using an approach which is largely free of biases, we here describe lineage dynamics and phylogenetic relationships of the Alpha and Beta variant in England during the first 3 months of 2021 using sequences obtained from a random community sample who provided a throat and nose swab for rt-PCR as part of the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study. Overall, diversity decreased during the first quarter of 2021, with the Alpha variant (first identified in Kent) becoming predominant, driven by a reproduction number 0.3 higher than for the prior wild-type. During January, positive samples were more likely to be Alpha in those aged 18 to 54 years old. Although individuals infected with the Alpha variant were no more likely to report one or more classic COVID-19 symptoms compared to those infected with wild-type, they were more likely to be antibody-positive 6 weeks after infection. Further, viral load was higher in those infected with the Alpha variant as measured by cycle threshold (Ct) values. The presence of infections with non-imported Beta variant (first identified in South Africa) during January, but not during February or March, suggests initial establishment in the community followed by fade-out. However, this occurred during a period of stringent social distancing. These results highlight how sequence data from representative community surveys such as REACT-1 can augment routine genomic surveillance during periods of lineage diversity

Successful kinetic impact into an asteroid for planetary defence

Although no known asteroid poses a threat to Earth for at least the next century, the catalogue of near-Earth asteroids is incomplete for objects whose impacts would produce regional devastation1,2. Several approaches have been proposed to potentially prevent an asteroid impact with Earth by deflecting or disrupting an asteroid1–3. A test of kinetic impact technology was identified as the highest-priority space mission related to asteroid mitigation1. NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission is a full-scale test of kinetic impact technology. The mission’s target asteroid was Dimorphos, the secondary member of the S-type binary near-Earth asteroid (65803) Didymos. This binary asteroid system was chosen to enable ground-based telescopes to quantify the asteroid deflection caused by the impact of the DART spacecraft4. Although past missions have utilized impactors to investigate the properties of small bodies5,6, those earlier missions were not intended to deflect their targets and did not achieve measurable deflections. Here we report the DART spacecraft’s autonomous kinetic impact into Dimorphos and reconstruct the impact event, including the timeline leading to impact, the location and nature of the DART impact site, and the size and shape of Dimorphos. The successful impact of the DART spacecraft with Dimorphos and the resulting change in the orbit of Dimorphos7 demonstrates that kinetic impactor technology is a viable technique to potentially defend Earth if necessary

Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, and vaccine effectiveness associated with the Delta variant

SARS-CoV-2 infections were rising during early summer 2021 in many countries associated with the Delta variant. We assessed RT-PCR swab-positivity in the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study in England. We observed sustained exponential growth with average doubling time (June-July 2021) of 25 days driven by complete replacement of Alpha variant by Delta, and by high prevalence at younger less-vaccinated ages. Unvaccinated people were three times more likely than double-vaccinated people to test positive. However, after adjusting for age and other variables, vaccine effectiveness for double-vaccinated people was estimated at between ~50% and ~60% during this period in England. Increased social mixing in the presence of Delta had the potential to generate sustained growth in infections, even at high levels of vaccination

SARS-CoV-2 lineage dynamics in England from September to November 2021: high diversity of Delta sub-lineages and increased transmissibility of AY.4.2

Background Since the emergence of SARS-CoV-2, evolutionary pressure has driven large increases in the transmissibility of the virus. However, with increasing levels of immunity through vaccination and natural infection the evolutionary pressure will switch towards immune escape. Genomic surveillance in regions of high immunity is crucial in detecting emerging variants that can more successfully navigate the immune landscape. Methods We present phylogenetic relationships and lineage dynamics within England (a country with high levels of immunity), as inferred from a random community sample of individuals who provided a self-administered throat and nose swab for rt-PCR testing as part of the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study. During round 14 (9 September–27 September 2021) and 15 (19 October–5 November 2021) lineages were determined for 1322 positive individuals, with 27.1% of those which reported their symptom status reporting no symptoms in the previous month. Results We identified 44 unique lineages, all of which were Delta or Delta sub-lineages, and found a reduction in their mutation rate over the study period. The proportion of the Delta sub-lineage AY.4.2 was increasing, with a reproduction number 15% (95% CI 8–23%) greater than the most prevalent lineage, AY.4. Further, AY.4.2 was less associated with the most predictive COVID-19 symptoms (p = 0.029) and had a reduced mutation rate (p = 0.050). Both AY.4.2 and AY.4 were found to be geographically clustered in September but this was no longer the case by late October/early November, with only the lineage AY.6 exhibiting clustering towards the South of England. Conclusions As SARS-CoV-2 moves towards endemicity and new variants emerge, genomic data obtained from random community samples can augment routine surveillance data without the potential biases introduced due to higher sampling rates of symptomatic individuals

Green plants in the red : a baseline global assessment for the IUCN Sampled Red List Index for Plants

Plants provide fundamental support systems for life on Earth and are the basis for all terrestrial ecosystems; a decline in plant diversity will be detrimental to all other groups of organisms including humans. Decline in plant diversity has been hard to quantify, due to the huge numbers of known and yet to be discovered species and the lack of an adequate baseline assessment of extinction risk against which to track changes. The biodiversity of many remote parts of the world remains poorly known, and the rate of new assessments of extinction risk for individual plant species approximates the rate at which new plant species are described. Thus the question 'How threatened are plants?' is still very difficult to answer accurately. While completing assessments for each species of plant remains a distant prospect, by assessing a randomly selected sample of species the Sampled Red List Index for Plants gives, for the first time, an accurate view of how threatened plants are across the world. It represents the first key phase of ongoing efforts to monitor the status of the world's plants. More than 20% of plant species assessed are threatened with extinction, and the habitat with the most threatened species is overwhelmingly tropical rain forest, where the greatest threat to plants is anthropogenic habitat conversion, for arable and livestock agriculture, and harvesting of natural resources. Gymnosperms (e.g. conifers and cycads) are the most threatened group, while a third of plant species included in this study have yet to receive an assessment or are so poorly known that we cannot yet ascertain whether they are threatened or not. This study provides a baseline assessment from which trends in the status of plant biodiversity can be measured and periodically reassessed.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe