Constructing the "Best" Reliability Data for the Job

Modern business and technical decisions are based on the results of analyses. When considering assessments using "reliability data", the concern is how long a system will continue to operate as designed. Generally, the results are only as good as the data used. Ideally, a large set of pass/fail tests or observations to estimate the probability of failure of the item under test would produce the best data. However, this is a costly endeavor if used for every analysis and design. Developing specific data is costly and time consuming. Instead, analysts rely on available data to assess reliability. Finding data relevant to the specific use and environment for any project is difficult, if not impossible. Instead, we attempt to develop the "best" or composite analog data to support our assessments. One method used incorporates processes for reviewing existing data sources and identifying the available information based on similar equipment, then using that generic data to derive an analog composite. Dissimilarities in equipment descriptions, environment of intended use, quality and even failure modes impact the "best" data incorporated in an analog composite. Once developed, this composite analog data provides a "better" representation of the reliability of the equipment or component can be used to support early risk or reliability trade studies, or analytical models to establish the predicted reliability data points. Data that is more representative of reality and more project specific would provide more accurate analysis, and hopefully a better final decision

Flight-based chemical characterization of biomass burning aerosols within two prescribed burn smoke plumes

Biomass burning represents a major global source of aerosols impacting direct radiative forcing and cloud properties. Thus, the goal of a number of current studies involves developing a better understanding of how the chemical composition and mixing state of biomass burning aerosols evolve during atmospheric aging processes. During the Ice in Clouds Experiment-Layer Clouds (ICE-L) in the fall of 2007, smoke plumes from two small Wyoming Bureau of Land Management prescribed burns were measured by on-line aerosol instrumentation aboard a C-130 aircraft, providing a detailed chemical characterization of the particles. After ~2–4 min of aging, submicron smoke particles, produced primarily from sagebrush combustion, consisted predominantly of organics by mass, but were comprised primarily of internal mixtures of organic carbon, elemental carbon, potassium chloride, and potassium sulfate. Significantly, the fresh biomass burning particles contained minor mass fractions of nitrate and sulfate, suggesting that hygroscopic material is incorporated very near or at the point of emission. The mass fractions of ammonium, sulfate, and nitrate increased with aging up to ~81–88 min and resulted in acidic particles. Decreasing black carbon mass concentrations occurred due to dilution of the plume. Increases in the fraction of oxygenated organic carbon and the presence of dicarboxylic acids, in particular, were observed with aging. Cloud condensation nuclei measurements suggested all particles >100 nm were active at 0.5% water supersaturation in the smoke plumes, confirming the relatively high hygroscopicity of the freshly emitted particles. For immersion/condensation freezing, ice nuclei measurements at −32 °C suggested activation of ~0.03–0.07% of the particles with diameters greater than 500 nm

Water activity and activation diameters from hygroscopicity data - Part II: Application to organic species

International audienceA method has been developed for using particle hygroscopicity measurements made with a humidified tandem differential mobility analyzer (HTDMA) to determine water activity as a function of solute weight percent. In Part I, the method was tested for particles composed of sodium chloride and ammonium sulfate. Here, we report results for several atmospherically-relevant organic species: glutaric acid, malonic acid, oxalic acid and levoglucosan. Predicted water activities for aqueous dicarboxylic acid solutions are quite similar in some cases to published estimates and the simplified predictions of Köhler theory, while in other cases substantial differences are found, which we attribute primarily to the semivolatile nature of these compounds that makes them difficult to study with the HTDMA. In contrast, estimates of water activity for levoglucosan solutions compare very well with recently-reported measurements and with published data for aqueous glucose and fructose solutions. For all studied species, the critical dry diameters active at supersaturations between 0.2 and 1% that are computed with the HTDMA-derived water activities are generally within the experimental error (~20%) estimated in previously-published direct measurements using cloud condensation nuclei counters. For individual compounds, the variations in reported solution water activity lead to uncertainties in critical dry diameters of 5-25%, not significantly larger than the uncertainty in the direct measurements. To explore the impact of these uncertainties on modeled aerosol-cloud interactions, we incorporate the variations in estimates of solution water activities into the description of hygroscopic growth of aerosol particles in an adiabatic parcel model and examine the impact on the predicted drop number concentrations. For the limited set of initial conditions examined here, we find that the uncertainties in critical dry diameters for individual species lead to 0-21% changes in drop number concentration, with the largest effects at high aerosol number concentrations and slow updraft velocities. Ammonium sulfate, malonic acid and glutaric acid have similar activation behavior, while glutaric acid and levoglucosan are somewhat less hygroscopic and lead to lower drop number concentrations; sodium chloride is the most easily activated compound. We explain these behaviors in terms of a parameter that represents compound hygroscopicity, and conclude that this parameter must vary by more than a factor of 2 to induce more than a 15% change in activated drop number concentrations. In agreement with earlier studies, our results suggest that the number concentration of activated drops is more sensitive to changes in the input aerosol size and number concentrations and the applied updraft velocity than to modest changes in the aerosol composition and hygroscopic properties

Water activity and activation diameters from hygroscopicity data - Part I: Theory and application to inorganic salts

International audienceA method is described that uses particle hygroscopicity measurements, made with a humidified tandem differential mobility analyzer (HTDMA), to determine solution water activity as a function of composition. The use of derived water activity data in computations determining the ability of aerosols to serve as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) is explored. Results for sodium chloride and ammonium sulfate are shown in Part I. The methodology yields solution water activities and critical dry diameters for ammonium sulfate and sodium chloride in good agreement with previously published data. The approach avoids the assumptions required for application of simplified and modified Köhler equations to predict CCN activity, most importantly, knowledge of the molecular weight and the degree of dissociation of the soluble species. Predictions of the dependence of water activity on the mass fraction of aerosol species are sensitive to the assumed dry density, but predicted critical dry diameters are not

Ice Initiation by Aerosol Particles: Measured and Predicted Ice Nuclei Concentrations versus Measured Ice Crystal Concentrations in an Orographic Wave Cloud

The initiation of ice in an isolated orographic wave cloud was compared with expectations based on ice nucleating aerosol concentrations and with predictions from new ice nucleation parameterizations applied in a cloud parcel model. Measurements of ice crystal number concentrations were found to be in good agreement both with measured number concentrations of ice nuclei feeding the clouds and with ice nuclei number concentrations determined from the residual nuclei of cloud particles collected by a counterflow virtual impactor. Using lognormal distributions fitted to measured aerosol size distributions and measured aerosol chemical compositions, ice nuclei and ice crystal concentrations in the wave cloud were reasonably well predicted in a 1D parcel model framework. Two different empirical parameterizations were used in the parcel model: a parameterization based on aerosol chemical type and surface area and a parameterization that links ice nuclei number concentrations to the number concentrations of particles with diameters larger than 0.5 μm. This study shows that aerosol size distribution and composition measurements can be used to constrain ice initiation by primary nucleation in models. The data and model results also suggest the likelihood that the dust particle mode of the aerosol size distribution controls the number concentrations of the heterogeneous ice nuclei, at least for the lower temperatures examined in this case

Observation of playa salts as nuclei in orographic wave clouds

During the Ice in Clouds Experiment-Layer Clouds (ICE-L), dry lakebed, or playa, salts from the Great Basin region of the United States were observed as cloud nuclei in orographic wave clouds over Wyoming. Using a counterflow virtual impactor in series with a single-particle mass spectrometer, sodium-potassium-magnesium-calcium-chloride salts were identified as residues of cloud droplets. Importantly, these salts produced similar mass spectral signatures to playa salts with elevated cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) efficiencies close to sea salt. Using a suite of chemical characterization instrumentation, the playa salts were observed to be internally mixed with oxidized organics, presumably produced by cloud processing, as well as carbonate. These salt particles were enriched as residues of large droplets (>19 μm) compared to smaller droplets (>7 μm). In addition, a small fraction of silicate-containing playa salts were hypothesized to be important in the observed heterogeneous ice nucleation processes. While the high CCN activity of sea salt has been demonstrated to play an important role in cloud formation in marine environments, this study provides direct evidence of the importance of playa salts in cloud formation in continental North America has not been shown previously. Studies are needed to model and quantify the impact of playas on climate globally, particularly because of the abundance of playas and expected increases in the frequency and intensity of dust storms in the future due to climate and land use changes

Combined and single effects of pesticide carbaryl and toxic Microcystis aeruginosa on the life history of Daphnia pulicaria

The combined influence of a pesticide (carbaryl) and a cyanotoxin (microcystin LR) on the life history of Daphnia pulicaria was investigated. At the beginning of the experiments animals were pulse exposed to carbaryl for 24 h and microcystins were delivered bound in Microcystis’ cells at different, sub-lethal concentrations (chronic exposure). In order to determine the actual carbaryl concentrations in the water LC–MS/MS was used. For analyses of the cyanotoxin concentration in Daphnia’s body enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was used. Individual daphnids were cultured in a flow-through system under constant light (16 h of light: 8 h of dark), temperature (20°C), and food conditions (Scenedesmus obliquus, 1 mg of C l−1). The results showed that in the treatments with carbaryl egg numbers per female did not differ significantly from controls, but the mortality of newborns increased significantly. Increasing microcystin concentrations significantly delayed maturation, reduced size at first reproduction, number of eggs, and newborns. The interaction between carbaryl and Microcystis was highly significant. Animals matured later and at a smaller size than in controls. The number of eggs per female was reduced as well. Moreover, combined stressors caused frequent premature delivery of offspring with body deformations such as dented carapax or an undeveloped heart. This effect is concluded to be synergistic and could not be predicted from the effects of the single stressors.

The influence of fictional narrative experience on work outcomes:a conceptual analysis and research model

Fictional narrative experience is assumed to have a profound impact on human behavior, but the possible outcomes and the processes through which fictional narrative experience influence behaviors have rarely been studied. This paper introduces a model of the consequences of fictional narrative experience through transportation and transformation processes. We discuss a framework for understanding the effects of fictional narrative experience, distinguishing affective and behavioral effects, and temporality of effects (short-term or persistent). Exemplary outcomes of fictional narrative experience are presented, including recovery, creativity and interpersonal behavior. Finally, we propose that the effects of fictional narrative experience are dependent upon a person’s frame of reference, as well the extent to which a reader can identify with the main characters, the perceived usefulness of a narrative, and degree of verisimilitude in the narrative

An integrated mid-range theory of postpartum family development: a guide for research and practice.

AIM: This paper is a report of a study to identify parents' perceptions of postpartum family experiences. BACKGROUND: There is a growing worldwide emphasis on family support. Government policy in the United Kingdom advocates a family-centred approach in which a core universal postbirth service is offered to all families with additional support for parents of children with complex needs. Health visitors provide family postpartum care without an agreed theory directing or standardizing practice. There is a need to identify parental experiences to define family-centred care. METHOD: A qualitative, exploratory approach was undertaken using a purposive sample of 17 postpartum families. Data were collected in one region of Northern Ireland in 2001-2002. Participants' experiences and views were accessed during two focus groups with a total of seven participants, and six in-depth interviews. Thematic analysis was conducted. FINDINGS: One core theme, 'thriving and surviving', and three main themes, 'baby nurture', 'life changes', 'coping and adapting resources', were identified to describe how parents developed during the first 8-week postpartum. These were influenced by the physical, the psychosocial and the environmental factors. The identified themes were mapped together to form an Integrated Mid-Range Theory of Postpartum Parent Development. CONCLUSION: As parents need to negotiate successfully both present coping and future development during the postpartum period, there is a need for professionals to offer services that are orientated to holistic short- and long-term well-being. The findings, further to additional research, may be used by health visitors and other professionals to direct universal postpartum care

The relevance of nanoscale biological fragments for ice nucleation in clouds

Most studies of the role of biological entities as atmospheric ice-nucleating particles have focused on relatively rare supermicron particles such as bacterial cells, fungal spores and pollen grains. However, it is not clear that there are sufficient numbers of these particles in the atmosphere to strongly influence clouds. Here we show that the ice-nucleating activity of a fungus from the ubiquitous genus Fusarium is related to the presence of nanometre-scale particles which are far more numerous, and therefore potentially far more important for cloud glaciation than whole intact spores or hyphae. In addition, we quantify the ice-nucleating activity of nano-ice nucleating particles (nano-INPs) washed off pollen and also show that nano-INPs are present in a soil sample. Based on these results, we suggest that there is a reservoir of biological nano-INPs present in the environment which may, for example, become aerosolised in association with fertile soil dust particles