Modeling of transpiration reduction in van Genuchten-Mualem type soils

We derive an analytic expression for the matric flux potential (M) for van Genuchten-Mualem (VGM) type soils which can also be written in terms of a converging infinite series. Considering the first four terms of this series, the accuracy of the approximation was verified by comparing it to values of M estimated by numerical finite difference integration. Using values of the parameters for three soils from different texture classes, the proposed four-term approximation showed an almost perfect match with the numerical solution, except for effective saturations higher than 0.9. Including more terms reduced the discrepancy but also increased the complexity of the equation. The four-term equation can be used for most applications. Cases with special interest in nearly saturated soils should include more terms from the infinite series. A transpiration reduction function for use with the VGM equations is derived by combining the derived expression for M with a root water extraction model. The shape of the resulting reduction function and its dependency on the derivative of the soil hydraulic diffusivity D with respect to the soil water content theta is discussed. Positive and negative values of dD/d theta yield concave and convex or S-shaped reduction functions, respectively. On the basis of three data sets, the hydraulic properties of virtually all soils yield concave reduction curves. Such curves based solely on soil hydraulic properties do not account for the complex interactions between shoot growth, root growth, and water availabilit

General procedure to initialize the cyclic soil water balance by the Thornthwaite and Mather method

The original Thornthwaite and Mather method, proposed in 1955 to calculate a climatic monthly cyclic soil water balance, is frequently used as an iterative procedure due to its low input requirements and coherent estimates of water balance components. Using long term data sets to establish a characteristic water balance of a location, the initial soil water storage is generally assumed to be at field capacity at the end of the last month of the wet season, unless the climate is (semi-) arid when the soil water storage is lower than the soil water holding capacity. To close the water balance, several iterations might be necessary, which can be troublesome in many situations. For (semi-) arid climates with one dry season, Mendon a derived in 1958 an equation to quantify the soil water storage monthly at the end of the last month of the wet season, which avoids iteration procedures and closes the balance in one calculation. The cyclic daily water balance application is needed to obtain more accurate water balance output estimates. In this note, an equation to express the water storage for the case of the occurrence of more than one dry season per year is presented as a generalization of Mendon a's equation, also avoiding iteration procedures

Антибіотикопрофілактика в хірургії

Наук. кер.: М.Г. КононенкоГнійно-запальні післяопераційні ускладнення за останні десятиріччя набувають все більшої актуальності. Це вже стає проблемою. Такі ускладнення необхідно попереджувати. Для забезпечення тканин операційного поля антибіотиком у ефективній (бактерицидній) концентрації на весь період хірургічного втручання проводять антибіотикопрофілактику (АБП). Вона є складовою частиною комплексної профілактики гнійно-запальних ускладнень. При цитуванні документа, використовуйте посилання http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/2734

Auditing predictive models : a case study in crop growth

Methods were developed to assess and quantify the predictive quality of simulation models, with the intent to contribute to evaluation of model studies by non-scientists. In a case study, two models of different complexity, LINTUL and SUCROS87, were used to predict yield of forage maize under Dutch meteorological conditions. The models predict yield under potential conditions, i.e. temperature- and radiation limited yield, assuming other production factors to be optimal.After a review of concerns voiced in model-based applied research, the simulation models were described in a systematic manner to simplify access to the software code. A model analysis showed that the models contain switches, describing abrupt changes occurring in the crop (e.g. change of temperature driven leaf area growth to photosynthesis driven leaf growth; onset of leaf senescence). Some switches introduced discontinuities in the relation between state variables and parameters. Such properties make non-standard approaches for parameter estimation necessary.Subsequently, the empirical basis of the simulation model was reviewed in terms of parameter values and their uncertainty, as derived from literature. The results were used to evaluate the predictive quality given the parameter uncertainty. Predictive quality given the parameter uncertainty was low; parameter estimation to adapt the model to local conditions was necessary.Different procedures to calibrate the models were discussed and presented. For the combination of models and the data available in this case study, parameters had to be selected. Selection was based on the ranking of the parameters on the basis of their contribution to output uncertainty. Non-selected parameters were fixed at their default value. Calibration using a controlled random search algorithm for a point estimation procedure was executed for both models. In the estimation procedure a compromise was sought between different types of problems: estimation bias, parameter identifiability and local minima.The parameter estimates were used to generate predictions. A comparison between predictions and measured data was used to evaluate the predictive quality of the models in terms that are relevant for the application. To do so, the concept of a link hypothesis was introduced. It defines the anticipated relation between prediction and measurement. Deviations from the anticipated relation were used to quantify predictive quality. Predictive quality was shown to depend strongly on the procedure used to generate predictions, i.e. procedures combining results based on multiple calibration sets yielded better predictions than predictions based on a single data set.To translate predictive quality in terms of usefulness of the simulation model prediction errors were compared to those of benchmark predictors (simple statistical predictors). LINTUL and SUCROS87 differed in their performance in relation to the benchmark predictors.Procedures developed in this thesis suggested that facilitating model evaluation requires actions that are not easily executed within the context of project-based, often time-limited, applied research. Investment in the methodological basis and in the empirical basis of the models prior to their application will be required.</p

Evaporation Through a Dry Soil Layer: Column Experiments

Modeling of water vapor transport through a dry soil layer (DSL), typically formed in the top soil during dry seasons in arid and semi-arid areas, is still problematic. Previous laboratory experiments in controlled environments showed that the only vapor transport process through the DSL is by Fick's law of diffusion. However, field experiments exhibited consistently higher evaporation rates than predicted by diffusion flow only. Some proposed reasons for the mismatch were: (a) daily cycles of condensation and evaporation in the DSL due to changes in solar radiation; (b) wind effects on air movement in the DSL; (c) atmospheric pressure fluctuations; (d) nonlinear influence of the DSL thickness on the evaporation process. To link the laboratory experiments with field observations, we performed soil column experiments in the laboratory with thick (&gt;50&nbsp;cm) DSL, and with different wind speeds, two radiative lamp schedules (continuous and 12&nbsp;h daily cycles) and different thicknesses of DSL. Atmospheric pressure, air temperature and humidity were measured continuously. The results show that the evaporation rates observed are larger than those predicted by diffusion flow only. We found that it was possible to model the evaporation rates as a function of atmospheric pressure fluctuations. In conclusion, atmospheric pressure fluctuations can induce evaporation rates in DSL larger than estimated by diffusion flow only, possibly explaining the discrepancy between laboratory and field evaporation rates

Seasonal evaluation of the land surface scheme HTESSEL against remote sensing derived energy fluxes of the Transdanubian region in Hungary

The skill of the land surface model HTESSEL is assessed to reproduce evaporation in response to land surface characteristics and atmospheric forcing, both being spatially variable. Evaporation estimates for the 2005 growing season are inferred from satellite observations of the Western part of Hungary and compared to model outcomes. Atmospheric forcings are obtained from a hindcast run with the Regional Climate Model RACMO2. Although HTESSEL slightly underpredicts the seasonal evaporative fraction as compared to satellite estimates, the mean, 10th and 90th percentile of this variable are of the same magnitude as the satellite observations. The initial water as stored in the soil and snow layer does not have a significant effect on the statistical properties of the evaporative fraction. However, the spatial distribution of the initial soil and snow water significantly affects the spatial distribution of the calculated evaporative fraction and the models ability to reproduce evaporation correctly in low precipitation areas in the considered region. HTESSEL performs weaker in dryer areas. In Western Hungary these areas are situated in the Danube valley, which is partly covered by irrigated cropland and which also may be affected by shallow groundwater. Incorporating (lateral) groundwater flow and irrigation, processes that are not included now, may improve HTESSELs ability to predict evaporation correctly. Evaluation of the model skills using other test areas and larger evaluation periods is needed to confirm the results. &lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt; Based on earlier sensitivity analysis, the effect of a number of modifications to HTESSEL has been assessed. A more physically based reduction function for dry soils has been introduced, the soil depth is made variable and the effect of swallow groundwater included. However, the combined modification does not lead to a significantly improved performance of HTESSEL

Safe use of proton pump inhibitors in patients with cirrhosis

Aims: Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) belong to the most frequently used drugs, also in patients with cirrhosis. PPIs are extensively metabolized by the liver, but practice guidance on prescribing in cirrhosis is lacking. We aim to develop practical guidance on the safe use of PPIs in patients with cirrhosis. Methods: A systematic literature search identified studies on the safety (i.e. adverse events) and pharmacokinetics of PPIs in cirrhotic patients. This evidence and data from the product information was reviewed by an expert panel who classified drugs as safe; no additional risks known; additional risks known; unsafe; or unknown. Guidance was aimed at the oral use of PPIs and categorized by the severity of cirrhosis, using the Child–Turcotte–Pugh (CTP) classification. Results: A total of 69 studies were included. Esomeprazole, omeprazole and rabeprazole were classified as having ‘no additional risks known’. A reduction in maximum dose of omeprazole and rabeprazole is recommended for CTP A and B patients. For patients with CTP C cirrhosis, the only PPI advised is esomeprazole at a maximum dosage of 20 mg per day. Pantoprazole and lansoprazole were classified as unsafe because of 4- to 8-fold increased exposure. The use of PPIs in cirrhotic patients has been associated with the development of infections and hepatic encephalopathy and should be carefully considered. Conclusions: We suggest using esomeprazole, omeprazole or rabeprazole in patients with CTP A or B cirrhosis and only esomeprazole in patients with CTP C. Pharmacokinetic changes are also important to consider when prescribing PPIs to vulnerable, cirrhotic patients

Explaining the willingness of public professionals to implement new policies: A policy alienation framework

Nowadays, many public policies focus on economic values, such as efficiency and client choice. Public professionals often show resistance to implementing such policies. We analyse this problem using an interdisciplinary approach. From public administration, we draw on the policy alienation concept, which consists of five dimensions: strategic powerlessness, tactical powerlessness, operational powerlessness, societal meaninglessness and client meaninglessness. These are considered as factors that influence the willingness of professionals to implement policies (change willingness - a concept drawn from the change management literature). We test this model in a survey among 478 Dutch healthcare professionals implementing a new reimbursement policy. The first finding was that perceived autonomy (operational powerlessness) significantly influenced change willingness, whereas strategic and tactical powerlessness were not found to be significant. Second, both the meaninglessness dimensions proved highly significant. We conclude that clarifying the value of a policy is important in getting professionals to willingly implement a policy, whereas their participation on the strategic or tactical levels seems less of a motivational factor. These insights help in understanding why public professionals embrace or resist the implementation of particular policies. Points for practitioners Policymakers develop public policies which, nowadays, tend to focus strongly on economic values, such as increasing efficiency or offering citizens the opportunity to choose among suppliers of public services. Public professionals, who have to implement these policies, are often reluctant to do so. This study shows that the causes of this resistance are unlikely to be found in the lack of influence these professionals have in the shaping of the policy at the national or organizational level. Rather, professionals might resist implementing policies because they do not see them as meaningful for society, or for their own clients. Therefore, policymakers should focus on this perceived meaninglessness and adopt ways to counter this, for example by intensively communicating the value associated with a policy