The essential value of long-term experimental data for hydrology and water management

We would like to thank the European Research Council ERC for funding the VeWa project and most of Tetzlaff's time (project GA 335910 VeWa). No data were used in producing this manuscript.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Net survival of perinatally and postnatally HIV-infected children: a pooled analysis of individual data from sub-Saharan Africa

Background Previously, HIV epidemic models have used a double Weibull curve to represent high initial and late mortality of HIV-infected children, without distinguishing timing of infection (peri- or post-natally). With more data on timing of infection, which may be associated with disease progression, a separate representation of children infected early and late was proposed. Methods Paediatric survival post-HIV infection without anti-retroviral treatment was calculated using pooled data from 12 studies with known timing of HIV infection. Children were grouped into perinatally or post-natally infected. Net mortality was calculated using cause-deleted life tables to give survival as if HIV was the only competing cause of death. To extend the curve beyond the available data, children surviving beyond 2.5 years post infection were assumed to have the same survival as young adults. Double Weibull curves were fitted to both extended survival curves to represent survival of children infected perinatally or through breastfeeding. Results Those children infected perinatally had a much higher risk of dying than those infected through breastfeeding, even allowing for background mortality. The final-fitted double Weibull curves gave 75% survival at 5 months after infection for perinatally infected, and 1.1 years for post-natally infected children. An estimated 25% of the early infected children would still be alive at 10.6 years compared with 16.9 years for those infected through breastfeeding. Conclusions The increase in available data has enabled separation of child mortality patterns by timing of infection allowing improvement and more flexibility in modelling of paediatric HIV infection and surviva

Seagrass and submerged aquatic vegetation (VAS) habitats off the Coast of Brazil: state of knowledge, conservation and main threats

Seagrass meadows are among the most threatened ecosystems on earth, raising concerns about the equilibrium of coastal ecosystems and the sustainability of local fisheries. The present review evaluated the current status of the research on seagrasses and submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) habitats off the coast of Brazil in terms of plant responses to environmental conditions, changes in distribution and abundance, and the possible role of climate change and variability. Despite an increase in the number of studies, the communication of the results is still relatively limited and is mainly addressed to a national or regional public; thus, South American seagrasses are rarely included or cited in global reviews and models. The scarcity of large-scale and long-term studies allowing the detection of changes in the structure, abundance and composition of seagrass habitats and associated species still hinders the investigation of such communities with respect to the potential effects of climate change. Seagrass meadows and SAV occur all along the Brazilian coast, with species distribution and abundance being strongly influenced by regional oceanography, coastal water masses, river runoff and coastal geomorphology. Based on these geomorphological, hydrological and ecological features, we characterised the distribution of seagrass habitats and abundances within the major coastal compartments. The current conservation status of Brazilian seagrasses and SAV is critical. The unsustainable exploitation and occupation of coastal areas and the multifold anthropogenic footprints left during the last 100 years led to the loss and degradation of shoreline habitats potentially suitable for seagrass occupation. Knowledge of the prevailing patterns and processes governing seagrass structure and functioning along the Brazilian coast is necessary for the global discussion on climate change. Our review is a first and much-needed step toward a more integrated and inclusive approach to understanding the diversity of coastal plant formations along the Southwestern Atlantic coast as well as a regional alert the projected or predicted effects of global changes on the goods and services provided by regional seagrasses and SAV

Observational constraints on the chemistry of isoprene nitrates over the eastern United States

The formation of organic nitrates during the oxidation of the biogenic hydrocarbon isoprene can strongly affect boundary layer concentrations of ozone and nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2). We constrain uncertainties in the chemistry of these isoprene nitrates using chemical transport model simulations in conjunction with observations over the eastern United States from the International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation (ICARTT) field campaign during summer 2004. The model best captures the observed boundary layer concentrations of organic nitrates and their correlation with ozone using a 4% yield of isoprene nitrate production from the reaction of isoprene hydroxyperoxy radicals with NO, a recycling of 40% NOx when isoprene nitrates react with OH and ozone, and a fast dry deposition rate of isoprene nitrates. Simulated boundary layer concentrations are only weakly sensitive to the rate of photochemical loss of the isoprene nitrates. An 8% yield of isoprene nitrates degrades agreement with the observations somewhat, but concentrations are still within 50% of observations and thus cannot be ruled out by this study. Our results indicate that complete recycling of NOx from the reactions of isoprene nitrates and slow rates of isoprene nitrate deposition are incompatible with the observations. We find that ∼50% of the isoprene nitrate production in the model occurs via reactions of isoprene (or its oxidation products) with the NO3 radical, but note that the isoprene nitrate yield from this pathway is highly uncertain. Using recent estimates of rapid reaction rates with ozone, 20–24% of isoprene nitrates are lost via this pathway, implying that ozonolysis is an important loss process for isoprene nitrates. Isoprene nitrates are shown to have a major impact on the nitrogen oxide (NOx = NO + NO2) budget in the summertime U.S. continental boundary layer, consuming 15–19% of the emitted NOx, of which 4–6% is recycled back to NOx and the remainder is exported as isoprene nitrates (2–3%) or deposited (8–10%). Our constraints on reaction rates, branching ratios, and deposition rates need to be confirmed through further laboratory and field measurements. The model systematically underestimates free tropospheric concentrations of organic nitrates, indicating a need for future investigation of the processes controlling the observed distribution

Interactive ozone and methane chemistry in GISS-E2 historical and future climate simulations

The new generation GISS climate model includes fully interactive chemistry related to ozone in historical and future simulations, and interactive methane in future simulations. Evaluation of ozone, its tropospheric precursors, and methane shows that the model captures much of the largescale spatial structure seen in recent observations. While the model is much improved compared with the previous chemistry-climate model, especially for ozone seasonality in the stratosphere, there is still slightly too rapid stratospheric circulation, too little stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone flux in the Southern Hemisphere and an Antarctic ozone hole that is too large and persists too long. Quantitative metrics of spatial and temporal correlations with satellite datasets as well as spatial autocorrelation to examine transport and mixing are presented to document improvements in model skill and provide a benchmark for future evaluations. The difference in radiative forcing (RF) calculated using modeled tropospheric ozone versus tropospheric ozone observed by TES is only 0.016Wm⁻². Historical 20th Century simulations show a steady increase in whole atmosphere ozone RF through 1970 after which there is a decrease through 2000 due to stratospheric ozone depletion. Ozone forcing increases throughout the 21st century under RCP8.5 owing to a projected recovery of stratospheric ozone depletion and increases in methane, but decreases under RCP4.5 and 2.6 due to reductions in emissions of other ozone precursors. RF from methane is 0.05 to 0.18Wm⁻² higher in our model calculations than in the RCP RF estimates. The surface temperature response to ozone through 1970 follows the increase in forcing due to tropospheric ozone. After that time, surface temperatures decrease as ozone RF declines due to stratospheric depletion. The stratospheric ozone depletion also induces substantial changes in surface winds and the Southern Ocean circulation, which may play a role in a slightly stronger response per unit forcing during later decades. Tropical precipitation shifts south during boreal summer from 1850 to 1970, but then shifts northward from 1970 to 2000, following upper tropospheric temperature gradients more strongly than those at the surfac

Investigación de mercado para la apertura de nuevas sucursales de clínica de fisioterapia y sus estrategias de lanzamiento

La empresa Biokinesic es una cadena de clínicas de rehabilitación y fisioterapia en proceso de expansión, por lo que contactó al Centro de Desarrollo para la Comercialización de ITESO, para realizar una investigación de mercado con el objetivo de identificar las localidades con potencial para abrir nuevas sucursales y expandirse por todo el territorio mexicano. El presente proyecto PAP es el análisis de dichas plazas, así como la propuesta de estrategias de apertura para estos nuevos locales.ITESO, A.C

Scale issues in soil moisture modelling: problems and prospects

Soil moisture storage is an important component of the hydrological cycle and plays a key role in land-surface-atmosphere interaction. The soil-moisture storage equation in this study considers precipitation as an input and soil moisture as a residual term for runoff and evapotranspiration. A number of models have been developed to estimate soil moisture storage and the components of the soil-moisture storage equation. A detailed discussion of the impli cation of the scale of application of these models reports that it is not possible to extrapolate processes and their estimates from the small to the large scale. It is also noted that physically based models for small-scale applications are sufficiently detailed to reproduce land-surface- atmosphere interactions. On the other hand, models for large-scale applications oversimplify the processes. Recently developed physically based models for large-scale applications can only be applied to limited uses because of data restrictions and the problems associated with land surface characterization. It is reported that remote sensing can play an important role in over coming the problems related to the unavailability of data and the land surface characterization of large-scale applications of these physically based models when estimating soil moisture storage.Yeshttps://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/manuscript-submission-guideline

SPEAR: The Next Generation GFDL Modeling System for Seasonal to Multidecadal Prediction and Projection

We document the development and simulation characteristics of the next generation modeling system for seasonal to decadal prediction and projection at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). SPEAR (Seamless System for Prediction and EArth System Research) is built from component models recently developed at GFDL—the AM4 atmosphere model, MOM6 ocean code, LM4 land model, and SIS2 sea ice model. The SPEAR models are specifically designed with attributes needed for a prediction model for seasonal to decadal time scales, including the ability to run large ensembles of simulations with available computational resources. For computational speed SPEAR uses a coarse ocean resolution of approximately 1.0° (with tropical refinement). SPEAR can use differing atmospheric horizontal resolutions ranging from 1° to 0.25°. The higher atmospheric resolution facilitates improved simulation of regional climate and extremes. SPEAR is built from the same components as the GFDL CM4 and ESM4 models but with design choices geared toward seasonal to multidecadal physical climate prediction and projection. We document simulation characteristics for the time mean climate, aspects of internal variability, and the response to both idealized and realistic radiative forcing change. We describe in greater detail one focus of the model development process that was motivated by the importance of the Southern Ocean to the global climate system. We present sensitivity tests that document the influence of the Antarctic surface heat budget on Southern Ocean ventilation and deep global ocean circulation. These findings were also useful in the development processes for the GFDL CM4 and ESM4 models

Influence of soil and climate on root zone storage capacity

Root zone storage capacity (Sr) is an important variable for hydrology and climate studies, as it strongly influences the hydrological functioning of a catchment and, via evaporation, the local climate. Despite its importance, it remains difficult to obtain a wellâ founded catchment representative estimate. This study tests the hypothesis that vegetation adapts its Sr to create a buffer large enough to sustain the plant during drought conditions of a certain critical strength (with a certain probability of exceedance). Following this method, Sr can be estimated from precipitation and evaporative demand data. The results of this â climateâ based methodâ are compared with traditional estimates from soil data for 32 catchments in New Zealand. The results show that the differences between catchments in climateâ derived catchment representative Sr values are larger than for soilâ derived Sr values. Using a model experiment, we show that the climateâ derived Sr can better reproduce hydrological regime signatures for humid catchments; for more arid catchments, the soil and climate methods perform similarly. This makes the climateâ based Sr a valuable addition for increasing hydrological understanding and reducing hydrological model uncertainty.Key Points:Plants develop their root systems to survive droughtsModel root zone storage capacity (Sr) can be inferred from climate recordsModel experiment shows that Sr is stronger influenced by climate than by soilPeer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/137190/1/wrcr21890.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/137190/2/wrcr21890_am.pd