Recent trends in power system reliability and implications for evaluating future investments in resiliency

This study examines the relationship between annual changes in electricity reliability reported by a large cross-section of U.S. electricity distribution utilities over a period of 13 years and a broad set of potential explanatory variables, including weather and utility characteristics. We find statistically significant correlations between the average number of power interruptions experienced annually and above average wind speeds, precipitation, lightning strikes, and a measure of population density: customers per line mile. We also find significant relationships between the average number of minutes of power interruptions experienced and above average wind speeds, precipitation, cooling degree-days, and one strategy used to mitigate the impacts of severe weather: the amount of underground transmission and distribution line miles. Perhaps most importantly, we find a significant time trend of increasing annual average number of minutes of power interruptions over time—especially when interruptions associated with extreme weather are included. The research method described in this analysis can provide a basis for future efforts to project long-term trends in reliability and the associated benefits of strategies to improve grid resiliency to severe weather—both in the U.S. and abroad

Evaluating the Performance of the IEEE Standard 1366 Method for Identifying Major Event Days

IEEE Standard 1366 offers a method for segmenting reliability performance data to isolate the effects of major events from the underlying year-to-year trends in reliability. Recent analysis by the IEEE Distribution Reliability Working Group (DRWG) has found that reliability performance of some utilities differs from the expectations that helped guide the development of the Standard 1366 method. This paper proposes quantitative metrics to evaluate the performance of the Standard 1366 method in identifying major events and in reducing year-to-year variability in utility reliability. The metrics are applied to a large sample of utility-reported reliability data to assess performance of the method with alternative specifications that have been considered by the DRWG. We find that none of the alternatives perform uniformly 'better' than the current Standard 1366 method. That is, none of the modifications uniformly lowers the year-to-year variability in System Average Interruption Duration Index without major events. Instead, for any given alternative, while it may lower the value of this metric for some utilities, it also increases it for other utilities (sometimes dramatically). Thus, we illustrate some of the trade-offs that must be considered in using the Standard 1366 method and highlight the usefulness of the metrics we have proposed in conducting these evaluations

Improving the estimated cost of sustained power interruptions to electricity customers

Electricity reliability and resiliency have become a topic of heightened interest in recent years in the United States. As utilities, regulators, and policymakers determine how to achieve optimal levels of electricity reliability while considering how best to prepare for future disruptions in power, the related issue of how much it costs when customers lose power remains a largely unanswered question. In 2006, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory developed an end-use based framework that estimates the cost of power interruptions in the U.S that has served as a foundational paper using the best available, yet far from perfect, information at that time. Since then, an abundance of work has been done to improve the quality and availability of information that now allow us to make a much more robust assessment of the cost of power interruptions to U.S. customers. In this work, we find that the total U.S. cost of sustained power interruptions is $44 billion per year (2015-$) −25% more than the $26 billion per year in 2002-$ (or $35 billion per year in 2015-$) estimated in our 2006 study

Severe weather, utility spending, and the long-term reliability of the U.S. power system

There has been a limited amount of peer-reviewed literature on long-term trends in electricity reliability including the underlying factors that impact reliability across the United States. In this analysis, we considered up to 16 years of data from 203 U S. utilities—representing about 70% of electricity sales. Annual frequency of interruptions for an average customer—at the regional and U.S. national-level—has generally decreased over this timeframe. But we do not find that there is a statistically significant trend in the annual duration of interruptions for an average customer. We find that more explicit measures of severe weather are correlated with reliability. We are able to explain 7% and 16% of past variation in the reliability metrics system average interruption duration and frequency indices, respectively, is due to severe weather—a significant improvement over earlier studies. We find that current year spending by utilities is correlated with worse reliability and that cumulative spending over the preceding three years is correlated with better reliability. Finally, we demonstrate that using a statistical instrument to represent the annual frequency of interruptions for an average customer can greatly improve analysis of trends in the annual duration of interruptions for an average customer

Distribution system versus bulk power system: Identifying the source of electric service interruptions in the US

This study reports on the results from efforts by the Institute of Electric and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) Distribution Reliability Working Group (DRWG) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to improve the usefulness of reliability metrics by developing and then applying consistent, yet distinct measures of the continuity of supply based on the portion of the electric power system from which power interruptions originate: the lower voltage distribution system versus the high-voltage bulk power system. The modified metrics better support reliability planning in the US because they separately measure the effectiveness of actions to improve reliability made by the two distinct groups of firms (and their regulators or oversight bodies) that are responsible for planning and operating each portion of the US electric power system. The authors then present for the first time quantitative information on the reliability of each portion of the US electric power system. When reliability is measured using the system average interruption duration index and the system average interruption frequency index, they find that the distribution system accounts for at least 94 and 92%, respectively, of all interruptions. They also find that these relationships have been stable over the recent past

Distribution system versus bulk power system: Identifying the source of electric service interruptions in the US

This study reports on the results from efforts by the Institute of Electric and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) Distribution Reliability Working Group (DRWG) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to improve the usefulness of reliability metrics by developing and then applying consistent, yet distinct measures of the continuity of supply based on the portion of the electric power system from which power interruptions originate: the lower voltage distribution system versus the high-voltage bulk power system. The modified metrics better support reliability planning in the US because they separately measure the effectiveness of actions to improve reliability made by the two distinct groups of firms (and their regulators or oversight bodies) that are responsible for planning and operating each portion of the US electric power system. The authors then present for the first time quantitative information on the reliability of each portion of the US electric power system. When reliability is measured using the system average interruption duration index and the system average interruption frequency index, they find that the distribution system accounts for at least 94 and 92%, respectively, of all interruptions. They also find that these relationships have been stable over the recent past