The relative impact of baryons and cluster shape on weak lensing mass estimates of galaxy clusters

Weak gravitational lensing depends on the integrated mass along the line of sight. Baryons contribute to the mass distribution of galaxy clusters and the resulting mass estimates from lensing analysis. We use the cosmo-OWLS suite of hydrodynamic simulations to investigate the impact of baryonic processes on the bias and scatter of weak lensing mass estimates of clusters. These estimates are obtained by fitting NFW profiles to mock data using MCMC techniques. In particular, we examine the difference in estimates between dark matter-only runs and those including various prescriptions for baryonic physics. We find no significant difference in the mass bias when baryonic physics is included, though the overall mass estimates are suppressed when feedback from AGN is included. For lowest-mass systems for which a reliable mass can be obtained ($M_{200} \approx 2 \times 10^{14}$ $M_{\odot}$), we find a bias of $\approx -10$ per cent. The magnitude of the bias tends to decrease for higher mass clusters, consistent with no bias for the most massive clusters which have masses comparable to those found in the CLASH and HFF samples. For the lowest mass clusters, the mass bias is particularly sensitive to the fit radii and the limits placed on the concentration prior, rendering reliable mass estimates difficult. The scatter in mass estimates between the dark matter-only and the various baryonic runs is less than between different projections of individual clusters, highlighting the importance of triaxiality

Disease prevention versus data privacy : using landcover maps to inform spatial epidemic models

The availability of epidemiological data in the early stages of an outbreak of an infectious disease is vital for modelers to make accurate predictions regarding the likely spread of disease and preferred intervention strategies. However, in some countries, the necessary demographic data are only available at an aggregate scale. We investigated the ability of models of livestock infectious diseases to predict epidemic spread and obtain optimal control policies in the event of imperfect, aggregated data. Taking a geographic information approach, we used land cover data to predict UK farm locations and investigated the influence of using these synthetic location data sets upon epidemiological predictions in the event of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. When broadly classified land cover data were used to create synthetic farm locations, model predictions deviated significantly from those simulated on true data. However, when more resolved subclass land use data were used, moderate to highly accurate predictions of epidemic size, duration and optimal vaccination and ring culling strategies were obtained. This suggests that a geographic information approach may be useful where individual farm-level data are not available, to allow predictive analyses to be carried out regarding the likely spread of disease. This method can also be used for contingency planning in collaboration with policy makers to determine preferred control strategies in the event of a future outbreak of infectious disease in livestock

A mathematical model for breath gas analysis of volatile organic compounds with special emphasis on acetone

Recommended standardized procedures for determining exhaled lower respiratory nitric oxide and nasal nitric oxide have been developed by task forces of the European Respiratory Society and the American Thoracic Society. These recommendations have paved the way for the measurement of nitric oxide to become a diagnostic tool for specific clinical applications. It would be desirable to develop similar guidelines for the sampling of other trace gases in exhaled breath, especially volatile organic compounds (VOCs) which reflect ongoing metabolism. The concentrations of water-soluble, blood-borne substances in exhaled breath are influenced by: (i) breathing patterns affecting gas exchange in the conducting airways; (ii) the concentrations in the tracheo-bronchial lining fluid; (iii) the alveolar and systemic concentrations of the compound. The classical Farhi equation takes only the alveolar concentrations into account. Real-time measurements of acetone in end-tidal breath under an ergometer challenge show characteristics which cannot be explained within the Farhi setting. Here we develop a compartment model that reliably captures these profiles and is capable of relating breath to the systemic concentrations of acetone. By comparison with experimental data it is inferred that the major part of variability in breath acetone concentrations (e.g., in response to moderate exercise or altered breathing patterns) can be attributed to airway gas exchange, with minimal changes of the underlying blood and tissue concentrations. Moreover, it is deduced that measured end-tidal breath concentrations of acetone determined during resting conditions and free breathing will be rather poor indicators for endogenous levels. Particularly, the current formulation includes the classical Farhi and the Scheid series inhomogeneity model as special limiting cases.Comment: 38 page

Hitting sbottom in natural SUSY

We compare the experimental prospects of direct stop and sbottom pair production searches at the LHC. Such searches for stops are of great interest as they directly probe for states that are motivated by the SUSY solution to the hierarchy problem of the Higgs mass parameter - leading to a "Natural" SUSY spectrum. Noting that sbottom searches are less experimentally challenging and scale up in reach directly with the improvement on b-tagging algorithms, we discuss the interplay of small TeV scale custodial symmetry violation with sbottom direct pair production searches as a path to obtaining strong sub-TeV constraints on stops in a natural SUSY scenario. We argue that if a weak scale natural SUSY spectrum does not exist within the reach of LHC, then hopes for such a spectrum for large regions of parameter space should sbottom out. Conversely, the same arguments make clear that a discovery of such a spectrum is likely to proceed in a sbottom up manner.Comment: 18 pages, 8 figures,v2 refs added, JHEP versio

Four Generations: SUSY and SUSY Breaking

We revisit four generations within the context of supersymmetry. We compute the perturbativity limits for the fourth generation Yukawa couplings and show that if the masses of the fourth generation lie within reasonable limits of their present experimental lower bounds, it is possible to have perturbativity only up to scales around 1000 TeV. Such low scales are ideally suited to incorporate gauge mediated supersymmetry breaking, where the mediation scale can be as low as 10-20 TeV. The minimal messenger model, however, is highly constrained. While lack of electroweak symmetry breaking rules out a large part of the parameter space, a small region exists, where the fourth generation stau is tachyonic. General gauge mediation with its broader set of boundary conditions is better suited to accommodate the fourth generation.Comment: 27 pages, 5 figure

COMPRENDO: Focus and approach

Tens of thousands of man-made chemicals are in regular use and discharged into the environment. Many of them are known to interfere with the hormonal systems in humans and wildlife. Given the complexity of endocrine systems, there are many ways in which endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) can affect the body’s signaling system, and this makes unraveling the mechanisms of action of these chemicals difficult. A major concern is that some of these EDCs appear to be biologically active at extremely low concentrations. There is growing evidence to indicate that the guiding principle of traditional toxicology that “the dose makes the poison” may not always be the case because some EDCs do not induce the classical dose–response relationships. The European Union project COMPRENDO (Comparative Research on Endocrine Disrupters—Phylogenetic Approach and Common Principles focussing on Androgenic/Antiandrogenic Compounds) therefore aims to develop an understanding of potential health problems posed by androgenic and antiandrogenic compounds (AACs) to wildlife and humans by focusing on the commonalities and differences in responses to AACs across the animal kingdom (from invertebrates to vertebrates)

Localisation of RNAs into the germ plasm of vitellogenic xenopus oocytes

We have studied the localisation of mRNAs in full-grown Xenopus laevis oocytes by injecting fluorescent RNAs, followed by confocal microscopy of the oocyte cortex. Concentrating on RNA encoding the Xenopus Nanos homologue, nanos1 (formerly Xcat2), we find that it consistently localised into aggregated germ plasm ribonucleoprotein (RNP) particles, independently of cytoskeletal integrity. This implies that a diffusion/entrapment-mediated mechanism is active, as previously reported for previtellogenic oocytes. Sometimes this was accompanied by localisation into scattered particles of the “late”, Vg1/VegT pathway; occasionally only late pathway localisation was seen. The Xpat RNA behaved in an identical fashion and for neither RNA was the localisation changed by any culture conditions tested. The identity of the labelled RNP aggregates as definitive germ plasm was confirmed by their inclusion of abundant mitochondria and co-localisation with the germ plasm protein Hermes. Further, the nanos1/Hermes RNP particles are interspersed with those containing the germ plasm protein Xpat. These aggregates may be followed into the germ plasm of unfertilized eggs, but with a notable reduction in its quantity, both in terms of injected molecules and endogenous structures. Our results conflict with previous reports that there is no RNA localisation in large oocytes, and that during mid-oogenesis even germ plasm RNAs localise exclusively by the late pathway. We find that in mid oogenesis nanos1 RNA also localises to germ plasm but also by the late pathway. Late pathway RNAs, Vg1 and VegT, also may localise into germ plasm. Our results support the view that mechanistically the two modes of localisation are extremely similar, and that in an injection experiment RNAs might utilise either pathway, the distinction in fates being very subtle and subject to variation. We discuss these results in relation to their biological significance and the results of others

Defecting or not defecting: how to "read" human behavior during cooperative games by EEG measurements

Understanding the neural mechanisms responsible for human social interactions is difficult, since the brain activities of two or more individuals have to be examined simultaneously and correlated with the observed social patterns. We introduce the concept of hyper-brain network, a connectivity pattern representing at once the information flow among the cortical regions of a single brain as well as the relations among the areas of two distinct brains. Graph analysis of hyper-brain networks constructed from the EEG scanning of 26 couples of individuals playing the Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma reveals the possibility to predict non-cooperative interactions during the decision-making phase. The hyper-brain networks of two-defector couples have significantly less inter-brain links and overall higher modularity - i.e. the tendency to form two separate subgraphs - than couples playing cooperative or tit-for-tat strategies. The decision to defect can be "read" in advance by evaluating the changes of connectivity pattern in the hyper-brain network

HIV Prevention in Care and Treatment Settings: Baseline Risk Behaviors among HIV Patients in Kenya, Namibia, and Tanzania.

HIV care and treatment settings provide an opportunity to reach people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV) with prevention messages and services. Population-based surveys in sub-Saharan Africa have identified HIV risk behaviors among PLHIV, yet data are limited regarding HIV risk behaviors of PLHIV in clinical care. This paper describes the baseline sociodemographic, HIV transmission risk behaviors, and clinical data of a study evaluating an HIV prevention intervention package for HIV care and treatment clinics in Africa. The study was a longitudinal group-randomized trial in 9 intervention clinics and 9 comparison clinics in Kenya, Namibia, and Tanzania (N = 3538). Baseline participants were mostly female, married, had less than a primary education, and were relatively recently diagnosed with HIV. Fifty-two percent of participants had a partner of negative or unknown status, 24% were not using condoms consistently, and 11% reported STI symptoms in the last 6 months. There were differences in demographic and HIV transmission risk variables by country, indicating the need to consider local context in designing studies and using caution when generalizing findings across African countries. Baseline data from this study indicate that participants were often engaging in HIV transmission risk behaviors, which supports the need for prevention with PLHIV (PwP). TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01256463

New approaches to measuring anthelminthic drug efficacy: parasitological responses of childhood schistosome infections to treatment with praziquantel

By 2020, the global health community aims to control and eliminate human helminthiases, including schistosomiasis in selected African countries, principally by preventive chemotherapy (PCT) through mass drug administration (MDA) of anthelminthics. Quantitative monitoring of anthelminthic responses is crucial for promptly detecting changes in efficacy, potentially indicative of emerging drug resistance. Statistical models offer a powerful means to delineate and compare efficacy among individuals, among groups of individuals and among populations.; We illustrate a variety of statistical frameworks that offer different levels of inference by analysing data from nine previous studies on egg counts collected from African children before and after administration of praziquantel.; We quantify responses to praziquantel as egg reduction rates (ERRs), using different frameworks to estimate ERRs among population strata, as average responses, and within strata, as individual responses. We compare our model-based average ERRs to corresponding model-free estimates, using as reference the World Health Organization (WHO) 90 % threshold of optimal efficacy. We estimate distributions of individual responses and summarize the variation among these responses as the fraction of ERRs falling below the WHO threshold.; Generic models for evaluating responses to anthelminthics deepen our understanding of variation among populations, sub-populations and individuals. We discuss the future application of statistical modelling approaches for monitoring and evaluation of PCT programmes targeting human helminthiases in the context of the WHO 2020 control and elimination goals