Biophysical suitability, economic pressure and land-cover change: a global probabilistic approach and insights for REDD+

There has been a concerted effort by the international scientific community to understand the multiple causes and patterns of land-cover change to support sustainable land management. Here, we examined biophysical suitability, and a novel integrated index of “Economic Pressure on Land” (EPL) to explain land cover in the year 2000, and estimated the likelihood of future land-cover change through 2050, including protected area effectiveness. Biophysical suitability and EPL explained almost half of the global pattern of land cover (R 2 = 0.45), increasing to almost two-thirds in areas where a long-term equilibrium is likely to have been reached (e.g. R 2 = 0.64 in Europe). We identify a high likelihood of future land-cover change in vast areas with relatively lower current and past deforestation (e.g. the Congo Basin). Further, we simulated emissions arising from a “business as usual” and two reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) scenarios by incorporating data on biomass carbon. As our model incorporates all biome types, it highlights a crucial aspect of the ongoing REDD + debate: if restricted to forests, “cross-biome leakage” would severely reduce REDD + effectiveness for climate change mitigation. If forests were protected from deforestation yet without measures to tackle the drivers of land-cover change, REDD + would only reduce 30 % of total emissions from land-cover change. Fifty-five percent of emissions reductions from forests would be compensated by increased emissions in other biomes. These results suggest that, although REDD + remains a very promising mitigation tool, implementation of complementary measures to reduce land demand is necessary to prevent this leakage

The impact of land use/land cover scale on modelling urban ecosystem services

Context Urbanisation places increasing stress on ecosystem services; however existing methods and data for testing relationships between service delivery and urban landscapes remain imprecise and uncertain. Unknown impacts of scale are among several factors that complicate research. This study models ecosystem services in the urban area comprising the towns of Milton Keynes, Bedford and Luton which together represent a wide range of the urban forms present in the UK. Objectives The objectives of this study were to test (1) the sensitivity of ecosystem service model outputs to the spatial resolution of input data, and (2) whether any resultant scale dependency is constant across different ecosystem services and model approaches (e.g. stock- versus flow-based). Methods Carbon storage, sediment erosion, and pollination were modelled with the InVEST framework using input data representative of common coarse (25 m) and fine (5 m) spatial resolutions. Results Fine scale analysis generated higher estimates of total carbon storage (9.32 vs. 7.17 kg m−2) and much lower potential sediment erosion estimates (6.4 vs. 18.1 Mg km−2 year−1) than analyses conducted at coarser resolutions; however coarse-scale analysis estimated more abundant pollination service provision. Conclusions Scale sensitivities depend on the type of service being modelled; stock estimates (e.g. carbon storage) are most sensitive to aggregation across scales, dynamic flow models (e.g. sediment erosion) are most sensitive to spatial resolution, and ecological process models involving both stocks and dynamics (e.g. pollination) are sensitive to both. Care must be taken to select model data appropriate to the scale of inquiry

Local and systemic immunomodulatory mechanisms triggered by Human Papillomavirus transformed cells: a potential role for G-CSF and neutrophils

Cervical cancer is the last stage of a series of molecular and cellular alterations initiated with Human Papillomavirus (HPV) infection. The process involves immune responses and evasion mechanisms, which culminates with tolerance toward tumor antigens. Our objective was to understand local and systemic changes in the interactions between HPV associated cervical lesions and the immune system as lesions progress to cancer. Locally, we observed higher cervical leukocyte infiltrate, reflected by the increase in the frequency of T lymphocytes, neutrophils and M2 macrophages, in cancer patients. We observed a strong negative correlation between the frequency of neutrophils and T cells in precursor and cancer samples, but not cervicitis. In 3D tumor cell cultures, neutrophils inhibited T cell activity, displayed longer viability and longer CD16 expression half-life than neat neutrophil cultures. Systemically, we observed higher plasma G-CSF concentration, higher frequency of immature low density neutrophils, and tolerogenic monocyte derived dendritic cells, MoDCs, also in cancer patients. Interestingly, there was a negative correlation between T cell activation by MoDCs and G-CSF concentration in the plasma. Our results indicate that neutrophils and G-CSF may be part of the immune escape mechanisms triggered by cervical cancer cells, locally and systemically, respectively.Tis study was supported by Sao Paulo Research foundation: grants 2008/57889-1, 2010/20010-4, 2014/19326-6, by the Brazilian National Counsel of Technological and Scientifc Development: grant 573799/2008-3. KLFA and RAMR had PhD fellowships by Sao Paulo Research Foundation, CRSF has a Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel PhD fellowship. We thank the Pathology Department of the School of Medicine, coordinated by Prof. Venâncio Avancini Ferreira Alves, Universidade de São Paulo for the slides containing histological samples from the biopsies used in this study. We thank Sandra Alexandre Alves for her technical support.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

A review of elliptical and disc galaxy structure, and modern scaling laws

A century ago, in 1911 and 1913, Plummer and then Reynolds introduced their models to describe the radial distribution of stars in `nebulae'. This article reviews the progress since then, providing both an historical perspective and a contemporary review of the stellar structure of bulges, discs and elliptical galaxies. The quantification of galaxy nuclei, such as central mass deficits and excess nuclear light, plus the structure of dark matter halos and cD galaxy envelopes, are discussed. Issues pertaining to spiral galaxies including dust, bulge-to-disc ratios, bulgeless galaxies, bars and the identification of pseudobulges are also reviewed. An array of modern scaling relations involving sizes, luminosities, surface brightnesses and stellar concentrations are presented, many of which are shown to be curved. These 'redshift zero' relations not only quantify the behavior and nature of galaxies in the Universe today, but are the modern benchmark for evolutionary studies of galaxies, whether based on observations, N-body-simulations or semi-analytical modelling. For example, it is shown that some of the recently discovered compact elliptical galaxies at 1.5 < z < 2.5 may be the bulges of modern disc galaxies.Comment: Condensed version (due to Contract) of an invited review article to appear in "Planets, Stars and Stellar Systems"(www.springer.com/astronomy/book/978-90-481-8818-5). 500+ references incl. many somewhat forgotten, pioneer papers. Original submission to Springer: 07-June-201

Religious Factors and Hippocampal Atrophy in Late Life

Despite a growing interest in the ways spiritual beliefs and practices are reflected in brain activity, there have been relatively few studies using neuroimaging data to assess potential relationships between religious factors and structural neuroanatomy. This study examined prospective relationships between religious factors and hippocampal volume change using high-resolution MRI data of a sample of 268 older adults. Religious factors assessed included life-changing religious experiences, spiritual practices, and religious group membership. Hippocampal volumes were analyzed using the GRID program, which is based on a manual point-counting method and allows for semi-automated determination of region of interest volumes. Significantly greater hippocampal atrophy was observed for participants reporting a life-changing religious experience. Significantly greater hippocampal atrophy was also observed from baseline to final assessment among born-again Protestants, Catholics, and those with no religious affiliation, compared with Protestants not identifying as born-again. These associations were not explained by psychosocial or demographic factors, or baseline cerebral volume. Hippocampal volume has been linked to clinical outcomes, such as depression, dementia, and Alzheimer's Disease. The findings of this study indicate that hippocampal atrophy in late life may be uniquely influenced by certain types of religious factors

Chromosome 3 Anomalies Investigated by Genome Wide SNP Analysis of Benign, Low Malignant Potential and Low Grade Ovarian Serous Tumours

Ovarian carcinomas exhibit extensive heterogeneity, and their etiology remains unknown. Histological and genetic evidence has led to the proposal that low grade ovarian serous carcinomas (LGOSC) have a different etiology than high grade carcinomas (HGOSC), arising from serous tumours of low malignant potential (LMP). Common regions of chromosome (chr) 3 loss have been observed in all types of serous ovarian tumours, including benign, suggesting that these regions contain genes important in the development of all ovarian serous carcinomas. A high-density genome-wide genotyping bead array technology, which assayed >600,000 markers, was applied to a panel of serous benign and LMP tumours and a small set of LGOSC, to characterize somatic events associated with the most indolent forms of ovarian disease. The genomic patterns inferred were related to TP53, KRAS and BRAF mutations. An increasing frequency of genomic anomalies was observed with pathology of disease: 3/22 (13.6%) benign cases, 40/53 (75.5%) LMP cases and 10/11 (90.9%) LGOSC cases. Low frequencies of chr3 anomalies occurred in all tumour types. Runs of homozygosity were most commonly observed on chr3, with the 3p12-p11 candidate tumour suppressor region the most frequently homozygous region in the genome. An LMP harboured a homozygous deletion on chr6 which created a GOPC-ROS1 fusion gene, previously reported as oncogenic in other cancer types. Somatic TP53, KRAS and BRAF mutations were not observed in benign tumours. KRAS-mutation positive LMP cases displayed significantly more chromosomal aberrations than BRAF-mutation positive or KRAS and BRAF mutation negative cases. Gain of 12p, which harbours the KRAS gene, was particularly evident. A pathology review reclassified all TP53-mutation positive LGOSC cases, some of which acquired a HGOSC status. Taken together, our results support the view that LGOSC could arise from serous benign and LMP tumours, but does not exclude the possibility that HGOSC may derive from LMP tumours

An overview of concepts and approaches used in estimating the burden of congenital disorders globally.

Congenital disorders are an important cause of pregnancy loss, premature death and life-long disability. A range of interventions can greatly reduce their burden, but the absence of local epidemiological data on their prevalence and the impact of interventions impede policy and service development in many countries. In an attempt to overcome these deficiencies, we have developed a tool-The Modell Global Database of Congenital Disorders (MGDb) that combines general biological principles and available observational data with demographic data, to generate estimates of the birth prevalence and effects of interventions on mortality and disability due to congenital disorders. MGDb aims to support policy development by generating country, regional and global epidemiological estimates. Here we provide an overview of the concepts and methodological approach used to develop MGDb