Turning the Table on Assessment: The Grantee Perception Report

This book chapter describes the origins of the GPR, illustrates lessons learned, and provides examples of changes made by foundations that have used this tool. It also reports on some of the broadly applicable insights gained from CEP's large-scale surveys of grantees. (This material is excerpted from the Grantmakers for Effective Organizations (GEO) book, A Funder's Guide to Organizational Assessment.

Financial intermediaries, markets, and growth

This paper contributes to the literature comparing the relative performance of financial intermediaries and markets by studying an environment in which a trade-off between risk sharing and growth arises endogenously. Financial intermediaries provide insurance to households against a liquidity shock. Households can also invest directly on a financial market, if they pay a cost. In equilibrium, the ability of intermediaries to share risk is constrained by the market. Moreover, intermediaries invest less in the productive technology when they provide more risk-sharing. This creates a trade-off between risk-sharing and growth. We show the balance of intermediaries and market that maximizes welfare depend on parameter values.Financial intermediaries; Financial markets; Risk-sharing; Growth

Vertical production and trade interdependence and welfare

The authors study international transmissions and welfare implications of monetary shocks in a two-country world with multiple stages of production and multiple border-crossings of intermediate goods. This empirically relevant feature is important, as it has opposite implications for two external spillover effects of a unilateral monetary expansion. If all production and trade are assumed to occur in a single stage, the conflict-of-interest terms-of-trade effect tends to dominate the common-interest efficiency-improvement effect for reasonable parameter values, so that the international welfare effects would depend in general on the underlying assumptions about the currencies of price setting. The stretch of production and trade across multiple stages of processing magnifies the efficiency-improvement effect and dampens the terms-of-trade effect. Thus, a monetary expansion can be mutually beneficial regardless of its source or the pricing assumptions.Production (Economic theory) ; Trade ; Monopolistic competition ; Welfare

Temptation and Self-Control: Some Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey

Temptation, Self-Control, Gul-Pesendorfer Preferences, Asset Pricing

Consistent High-Frequency Calibration

Economic models are meant to provide a framework to describe real-world economic activities. In principle, how well a model performs this task can be evaluated by how close the model's simulated activities track the observed ones. A necessary first step in simulating a model is to choose values for the model's parameters in accordance with actual economic data. A fundamental problem in economic modelling, however, is that actual economic data are sampled at time intervals that are typically longer than the decision intervals of actual economic agents. One popular resolution of this problem is to constrain the length of the decision intervals of theoretical economic agents to be equal to the length of the actual data-sampling intervals. This widely adopted approach makes it feasible to directly calibrate theoretical models to the observed data, but it can introduce substantial biases in the models' empirical performance, as demonstrated by recent research that has allowed the decision intervals to be shorter than the data-sampling intervals. This alternative, high-frequency modelling approach, however, has brought with itself a fundamental issue that direct calibration of the models' parameters is no longer feasible. In response, researchers have employed a simple, yet ad hoc, rule to transform commonly chosen lower-frequency parameter values (which can be calibrated directly from the available data) to their high-frequency counterparts. We show in this paper that this simple transformation rule has three major drawbacks. First, it produces internal inconsistencies in steady- state equilibrium conditions. Second, it is sometimes at odds with microeconomic evidence. And third, it can result in inaccurate log- linear approximations to the models' true equilibrium solutions by worsening the fit of both the transition dynamic coefficients and the point of approximation itself. We present here an alternative, coherent transformation rule for calibrating high-frequency models that directly addresses these three shortcomings. We then use our consistent transformation rule to calibrate high-frequency versions of two well- known economic models and show how it improves these models' empirical performance.calibration temporal aggregation

Optimal monetary policy under financial sector risk

We consider whether or not a central bank should respond directly to financial market conditions when setting monetary policy. Specifically, should a central bank put weight on interbank lending spreads in its Taylor rule policy function? ; Using a model with risk and balance sheet effects in both the real and financial sectors (Davis, "The Adverse Feedback Loop and the Effects of Risk in the both the Real and Financial Sectors" Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper No. 66, November 2010) we find that when the conventional parameters in the Taylor rule (the coefficients on the lagged interest rate, inflation, and the output gap) are optimally chosen, the central bank should not put any weight on endogenous fluctuations in the interbank lending spread. ; However, the central bank should adjust the risk free rate in response to fluctuations in the spread that occur because of exogenous financial shocks, but we find that the central bank should not be too aggressive in its easing policy. Optimal policy calls for a two-thirds of a percentage point cut in the risk free rate in response to a financial shock that causes a one percentage point increase in interbank lending spreads.Business cycles ; Financial markets ; Monetary policy

International real business cycles with endogenous markup variability

The aggregate impact of decisions made at the level of the individual firm has recently attracted a lot of attention in both the macro and trade literatures. We adapt the benchmark international real business cycle model to a game-theoretic environment to add a channel for the strategic interaction among domestic and foreign firms. We show how the sum of strategic pricing decisions made at the level of the individual firm can have significant effects on the volatility and cross country co-movement of GDP and its components. Specifically we show that the addition of this one channel for strategic interaction leads to a significant increase in the cross-country co-movement of production and investment, as well as a significant decrease in the volatility of investment and the trade balance over the benchmark IRBC model.Industrial organization (Economic theory) ; Business cycles - Econometric models ; International finance ; International trade - Econometric models ; Gross domestic product

Production interdependence and welfare

The international welfare effects of a country's monetary policy shocks have been controversial in the new open economy macro (i.e., NOEM) literature. While a unilateral monetary expansion increases the production efficiency in each country, it affects the terms of trade in favor of one country against another depending on the currencies of price setting. In this paper, we incorporate multiple stages of production and trade into a standard NEOM model to capture world production interdependence, and show that increased world production interdependence tends to magnify the e±ciency-improvement effect while dampening the terms-of-trade effect. As a consequence, a unilateral monetary expansion can be mutually beneficial regardless of in which currency prices are set. In this sense, international monetary policy transmission may not be a source of potential conflict in a world with production interdependence. JEL Classification: E32, F31, F41Local currency pricing, Monopolistic competition, Stages of processing, Welfare

Inflation targeting: what inflation rate to target?

In an economy with nominal rigidities in both an intermediate good sector and a finished good sector, and thus with a natural distinction between CPI and PPI inflation rates, a benevolent central bank faces a tradeoff between stabilizing the two measures of inflation: a final output gap, and unique to our model, a real marginal cost gap in the intermediate sector, so that optimal monetary policy is second-best. We discuss how to implement the optimal policy with minimal information requirement and evaluate the robustness of these simple rules when the central bank may not know the exact sources of shocks or nominal rigidities. A main finding is that a simple hybrid rule under which the short-term interest rate responds to CPI inflation and PPI inflation results in a welfare level close to the optimum, whereas policy rules that ignore PPI inflation or PPI sector shocks can result in significant welfare losses.Inflation (Finance)