Competing for the Platform: How Organized Interests affect Party Positioning in the United States

What explains which groups are included in a party coalition in any given election cycle? Recent advances in political party theory suggest that policy demanders comprise parties, and that the composition of a party coalition varies from election to election. We theorize three conditions under which parties articulate an interest group?s preferred positions in its quadrennial platform: when groups are ideologically proximate to the party median, when groups display party loyalty, and when groups are flush with resources. Using computer-assisted content analysis on a unique and rich data source, we examine three cycles of testimony that 80 organized groups provided to the Democratic Party. The analysis compares group requests with the content of Democratic and Republican National Committee platforms in 1996, 2000, and 2004. Results show that parties reward loyal groups and those that are ideologically proximate to the party, but offer no confirmation of a resource effect

Electoral Volatility, Political Sophistication, Trust and Efficacy

In this article we investigate voter volatility and analyze the causes and motives of switching vote intentions. We test two main sets of variables linked to volatility in literature; political sophistication and ‘political (dis)satisfaction’. Results show that voters with low levels of political efficacy tend to switch more often, both within a campaign and between elections. In the analysis we differentiate between campaign volatility and inter-election volatility and by doing so show that the dynamics of a campaign have a profound impact on volatility. The campaign period is when the lowly sophisticated switch their vote intention. Those with higher levels of interest in politics have switched their intention before the campaign has started. The data for this analysis are from the three wave PartiRep Belgian Election Study (2009)

First narrow-band search for continuous gravitational waves from known pulsars in advanced detector data

Spinning neutron stars asymmetric with respect to their rotation axis are potential sources of continuous gravitational waves for ground-based interferometric detectors. In the case of known pulsars a fully coherent search, based on matched filtering, which uses the position and rotational parameters obtained from electromagnetic observations, can be carried out. Matched filtering maximizes the signalto- noise (SNR) ratio, but a large sensitivity loss is expected in case of even a very small mismatch between the assumed and the true signal parameters. For this reason, narrow-band analysis methods have been developed, allowing a fully coherent search for gravitational waves from known pulsars over a fraction of a hertz and several spin-down values. In this paper we describe a narrow-band search of 11 pulsars using data from Advanced LIGO’s first observing run. Although we have found several initial outliers, further studies show no significant evidence for the presence of a gravitational wave signal. Finally, we have placed upper limits on the signal strain amplitude lower than the spin-down limit for 5 of the 11 targets over the bands searched; in the case of J1813-1749 the spin-down limit has been beaten for the first time. For an additional 3 targets, the median upper limit across the search bands is below the spin-down limit. This is the most sensitive narrow-band search for continuous gravitational waves carried out so far

The puzzle of non-party actors in party democracy: Independents in Ireland

It is an accepted truth that parties are the central political actors in all liberal democracies. This dominance of parties is often considered the logical outcome of rational politicians’ attempts to maximize their utility in terms of votes and policy influence. However, the last twenty years have seen a number of significant Independent (i.e. non-party) actors emerge in more than a few political systems. From an actor-centred point of view, party affiliation can, depending on the particular environment, be rather a liability than an advantage, which has significant implications for the role of non-party actors in face of weakening party democracies. To demonstrate this point, we deliver an account of the rise of Independents in the Irish political system, opposed to the dominant scholarly perspective that tends to consider Independents as an idiosyncrasy. We show that the choice of organizational independence over party affiliation represents a reaction to incentives inherent in the electoral, parliamentary and governmental stages that can disfavour party as the most efficient vehicle for individual goal attainment. This becomes evident when avoiding the misleading comparison between parties as collective bodies with that of Independents as individuals, instead focussing on the respective strategic positions of the individual MPs

The South, the suburbs, and the Vatican too: explaining partisan change among Catholics

This paper explains changes in partisanship among Catholics in the last quarter of the 20th Century using a theory of partisan change centered on the contexts in which Catholics lived. Catholics were part of the post-New Deal Democratic coalition, but they have become a swing demographic group. We argue that these changes in partisanship are best explained by changes in elite messages that are filtered through an individual’s social network. Those Catholics who lived or moved into the increasingly Republican suburbs and South were the Catholics who were most likely to adopt a non-Democratic partisan identity. Changes in context better explain Catholic partisanship than party abortion policy post Roe v. Wade or ideological sorting. We demonstrate evidence in support of our argument using the ANES cumulative file from 1972 through 2000

Distribution and release of PFAS from AFFF-impacted asphalt: How does it compare to concrete?

Aqueous film forming foam (AFFF)-impacted asphalt and concrete may serve as potential secondary sources of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) to the environment through surficial leaching. We aimed to understand the vertical distribution and surficial release of PFAS from AFFF-impacted asphalt and concrete cores collected from various locations (∼10-70 m distance between samples). Among the PFAS analyzed, 6:2 FTS was observed as having the highest concentration in the surface layer (0 - 0.5 cm) of concrete (225 µg kg-1) and in the runoff from the concrete (2600 ng L-1). PFOS was detected at the highest concentration in the surface layer (0 - 0.5 cm) of asphalt (47 µg kg-1) and associated runoff (780 ng L-1). The total mass of PFAS released during three rainfall simulations accounts for a fraction of the total mass in the surface layer (0 - 0.5 cm), ranging from 0.10 - 9.8% and 0.078 - 2.4% for asphalt and concrete cores, respectively. Asphalt exhibited a higher release rate than concrete, demonstrated by the higher total release coefficient of PFAS (4 - 16 m-2) compared to that of concrete cores (1 - 5 m-2). These results suggested that, similar to concrete, AFFF-impacted asphalt may be a secondary source of PFAS to the environment

Evaluation of sealants to mitigate the release of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) from AFFF-impacted concrete: Characterization and forecasting.

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) within concrete pads impacted by historical firefighting training using aqueous film-forming foam (AFFF) may be potential secondary sources of PFAS due to surficial leaching. This study aimed to (i) characterize the effectiveness of two commercially available sealants (Product A and Product B) in mitigating leaching of five PFAS (e.g., PFOS, PFOA, PFHxS, PFHxA, 6:2 FTS) from concrete surfaces at the laboratory-scale, and (ii) develop a model to forecast cumulative leaching of the same five PFAS over 20 years from sealed and unsealed concrete surfaces. Laboratory trials demonstrated that both sealants reduced the surficial leaching of the five PFAS studied, and Product B demonstrated a comparatively greater reduction in surface leaching than Product A as measured against unsealed controls. The cumulative PFOS leaching from an unsealed concrete surface is estimated by the model to be about 400 mg/m2 over 20 years and reached asymptotic conditions after 15 years. In contrast, the model output suggests asymptotic conditions were not achieved within the modeled time of 20 years after sealing with Product A and 85% of PFOS was predicted to have leached (∼340 mg/m2). Negligible leaching of PFOS after sealing with Product B was observed ( < 5 × 10-9 mg/m2). Results from modeled rainfall scenarios suggest PFAS leachability is reduced from sealed versus unsealed AFFF-impacted concrete surfaces

Sensitivity of the Advanced LIGO detectors at the beginning of gravitational wave astronomy

The Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory (LIGO) consists of two widely separated 4 km laser interferometers designed to detect gravitational waves from distant astrophysical sources in the frequency range from 10 Hz to 10 kHz. The first observation run of the Advanced LIGO detectors started in September 2015 and ended in January 2016. A strain sensitivity of better than 10−23/Hz−−−√ was achieved around 100 Hz. Understanding both the fundamental and the technical noise sources was critical for increasing the astrophysical strain sensitivity. The average distance at which coalescing binary black hole systems with individual masses of 30  M⊙ could be detected above a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of 8 was 1.3 Gpc, and the range for binary neutron star inspirals was about 75 Mpc. With respect to the initial detectors, the observable volume of the Universe increased by a factor 69 and 43, respectively. These improvements helped Advanced LIGO to detect the gravitational wave signal from the binary black hole coalescence, known as GW150914

Search for post-merger gravitational waves from the remnant of the binary neutron star merger GW170817

In Advanced LIGO, detection and astrophysical source parameter estimation of the binary black hole merger GW150914 requires a calibrated estimate of the gravitational-wave strain sensed by the detectors. Producing an estimate from each detector's differential arm length control loop readout signals requires applying time domain filters, which are designed from a frequency domain model of the detector's gravitational-wave response. The gravitational-wave response model is determined by the detector's opto-mechanical response and the properties of its feedback control system. The measurements used to validate the model and characterize its uncertainty are derived primarily from a dedicated photon radiation pressure actuator, with cross-checks provided by optical and radio frequency references. We describe how the gravitational-wave readout signal is calibrated into equivalent gravitational-wave-induced strain and how the statistical uncertainties and systematic errors are assessed. Detector data collected over 38 calendar days, from September 12 to October 20, 2015, contain the event GW150914 and approximately 16 of coincident data used to estimate the event false alarm probability. The calibration uncertainty is less than 10% in magnitude and 10 degrees in phase across the relevant frequency band 20 Hz to 1 kHz

First measurement of the Hubble Constant from a Dark Standard Siren using the Dark Energy Survey Galaxies and the LIGO/Virgo Binary–Black-hole Merger GW170814

International audienceWe present a multi-messenger measurement of the Hubble constant H 0 using the binary–black-hole merger GW170814 as a standard siren, combined with a photometric redshift catalog from the Dark Energy Survey (DES). The luminosity distance is obtained from the gravitational wave signal detected by the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO)/Virgo Collaboration (LVC) on 2017 August 14, and the redshift information is provided by the DES Year 3 data. Black hole mergers such as GW170814 are expected to lack bright electromagnetic emission to uniquely identify their host galaxies and build an object-by-object Hubble diagram. However, they are suitable for a statistical measurement, provided that a galaxy catalog of adequate depth and redshift completion is available. Here we present the first Hubble parameter measurement using a black hole merger. Our analysis results in , which is consistent with both SN Ia and cosmic microwave background measurements of the Hubble constant. The quoted 68% credible region comprises 60% of the uniform prior range [20, 140] km s−1 Mpc−1, and it depends on the assumed prior range. If we take a broader prior of [10, 220] km s−1 Mpc−1, we find (57% of the prior range). Although a weak constraint on the Hubble constant from a single event is expected using the dark siren method, a multifold increase in the LVC event rate is anticipated in the coming years and combinations of many sirens will lead to improved constraints on H 0