Estimating Cost of Conflict and Increasing Food Security In Southern Sudan

In order to meet humanitarian assistance programs, donor organizations like WFP need to procure food either locally or import it. Internal conflict may pose significant barriers to local and regional procurement programs like P4P. We develop a methodology to estimate the cost of conflict using a microeconomic setting. We examine the use of forward contracts to procure locally and derive a) what price should be paid to the suppliers, b) how should contracts be designed so that agents relinquish conflict and sign P4P contracts.Food Security and Poverty,

Conflict, Aid and Poverty: Cause, Effect and Prediction

Recent studies and reports suggest that foreign aid/intervention has been somewhat futile in eradicating conflict. In this study, we develop a simultaneous donor/recipient model of foreign aid and terrorism. Thereafter, we extend our theoretical propositions through a machine learning algorithm of inductive causation. We find that terrorism increases foreign aid, however foreign assistance is futile in mitigating terrorism. Additionally, socio-economic factors influence foreign aid given by the donors. But foreign assistance is unsuccessful in enhancing the livelihoods of the underprivileged. We conclude that foreign aid policies need to be more efficient.Food Security and Poverty, International Relations/Trade,

Reproducibility, stability, and accuracy of microbial profiles by fecal sample collection method in three distinct populations.

The gut microbiome likely plays a role in the etiology of multiple health conditions, especially those affecting the gastrointestinal tract. Little consensus exists as to the best, standard methods to collect fecal samples for future microbiome analysis. We evaluated three distinct populations (N = 132 participants) using 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing data to investigate the reproducibility, stability, and accuracy of microbial profiles in fecal samples collected and stored via fecal occult blood test (FOBT) or Flinders Technology Associates (FTA) cards, fecal immunochemical tests (FIT) tubes, 70% and 95% ethanol, RNAlater, or with no solution. For each collection method, based on relative abundance of select phyla and genera, two alpha diversity metrics, and four beta diversity metrics, we calculated intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) to estimate reproducibility and stability, and Spearman correlation coefficients (SCCs) to estimate accuracy of the fecal microbial profile. Comparing duplicate samples, reproducibility ICCs for all collection methods were excellent (ICCs ≥75%). After 4-7 days at ambient temperature, ICCs for microbial profile stability were excellent (≥75%) for most collection methods, except those collected via no-solution and 70% ethanol. SCCs comparing each collection method to immediately-frozen no-solution samples ranged from fair to excellent for most methods; however, accuracy of genus-level relative abundances differed by collection method. Our findings, taken together with previous studies and feasibility considerations, indicated that FOBT/FTA cards, FIT tubes, 95% ethanol, and RNAlater are excellent choices for fecal sample collection methods in future microbiome studies. Furthermore, establishing standard collection methods across studies is highly desirable

NILAI SOSIAL DAN MORAL DALAM TEKS DRAMA PETANG DITAMAN KARYA IWAN SIMATUPANG MELALUI PENDEKATAN STRUKTURAL

Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk  mendiskripsikan kritik sosial yang terdapat di dalam naskah drama petang ditaman karya iwan simatupang,  memaparkan implementasi hasil penelitian dari naskah drama . Objek kajian dalam penelitian ini adalah sosial dan moral. Data yang dibutuhkan berupa dialog-dialog yang terdapat dalam naskah drama pang ditaman. Sumber data diperoleh dari naskah drama dan referensi lain yang mendukung dalam penelitian ini. Teknik pengumpulan data yang digunakan adalah teknik pustaka dan simak catat. Teknik keabsahan data berupa teknik trianggulasi teori. Teknik analisis data menggunakan metode struktural., dalam penelitian meliputi, kritik sosial dalam naskah drama meliputi kritik sosial dan moral 

Aid and Peace A Critique of Foreign Assistance, Conflict and Development

In 2000, the World Bank estimated that 2.8 billion people lived on incomes of less than $2.00 a day. Meanwhile about forty percent of the world's population endured conflict, most of them from the same subset. The implementation of foreign assistance to mitigate poverty and conflict is a key focus of politicians, bureaucrats and social scientists. The goal of this research is to discover relationships among foreign aid, conflict, and socio-economic development, and assess the implications. Other evaluations either approach this issue from a hedonistic, theoretical standpoint, or follow a stylized project evaluation method. This research is intended to create a bridge between the two approaches by: 1) proposing theoretical models of assistance and conflict accounting for current status quo, and 2) introducing novel empirical methods to analyze the causes and effects of development, intervention and conflict. The research begins with a comparative analysis of different schools of thought concerning foreign intervention, conflict and development. Contemporary philosophies and policies provide the basis for assumptions and inquiries addressed in the latter part of this dissertation. The review is followed by a critique of relevant data and their sources. A theoretical model of foreign assistance allocation and its possible impacts on conflict is proposed. The theoretical model is verified through an empirical examination using inductive casual inference methods. It is concluded that under current mandates and policies, aggregate foreign assistance has no effect on conflict and development in poor countries. Research is then directed toward analyzing the effect of foreign assistance on conflict, disaggregated by sector. Agricultural and food security assistance were identified as the most effective method of mitigating conflict. The next segments of research concentrate on agricultural development. A model of agricultural development is proposed that will promote food security and mitigate conflict. In the last analysis, a direct causal relationship is found between commodity prices and conflict. Findings are summarized in the conclusion, and recommendations are provided for policy re-evaluations

The Role of Conflict in Farmers’ Crop Choices in North Kivu, Democratic Republic of the Congo

Cropping choices under uncertainty caused by weather, input prices, and ecological conditions have been addressed in contemporary literature. However, uncertainty arising from violent conflict on farming choices lacks substantial academic attention. In this research we address the ramifications of conflict on household cropping choices, building on the notion of “conflict resistant” cropping systems introduced in Kibriya et al. 2014 and King et al. 2013. We argue that farming households’ preferences change under conflict as they revert to a cropping system that minimizes losses. This novel concept is solidified by formulating a definition through rational choice theory. The theoretical expectations are verified through data obtained from 2300 smallholder farming households in North Kivu, DRC. A case study and propensity score matching methods are employed to demonstrate that conflict-affected households focus more on low-value crops that are less frequently stolen in order to maximize the probability of survival

Multi-surface plasticity model for analysis of complex interlocking assemblies

The drive for new masonry alternatives to energy-intensive, tensile-resistant ma-terials has led to complex interlocking geometries, but current design tools lack the structural insight to analyze these assemblies effectively. This paper presents Joint Layout Design (JLD), which extends multi-surface plasticity to model discrete, breakable, interlocking assemblies. Two discontinuities are considered for failure: dry faces between blocks (with zero tensile strength and finite friction) and inner faces within blocks (with finite tensile and shear strength). The proposed approach models any interlocking assembly by configuring dry and inner inter-faces shared across finite elements. Using a convex limit analysis formulation, an iterative equilibrium solution is developed. The paper first generates tens of thousands of segmented models with valid inner and dry face configurations, each evaluated for load-bearing capacity. Finally, the correlation of the bearing capacity and mechanism obtained by JLD and 3DEC software using Discrete Element analysis, for four models is explored

Nonlinear dynamics of self-centring rocking steel frames using finite element models

Rocking post-tensioned steel frames capitalise on the use of rocking joints, and unbonded post-tensioning strands to provide self-centring action. Investigations on the complex and unconventional nonlinear dy- namics of tied rocking steel frames, exclusive of supplemental damping methods, are presently limited. Increasing levels of energy-dissipation reduce the probability of observing nonlinear dynamic phenomena such as co-existing (high/low) amplitude responses at and around the system’s nonlinear resonance. To this end, a finite element (FE) modelling framework is presented, validated and extended to multi-storey steel buildings. It is shown that the simulation strategies proposed enable an accurate representation of the complex nonlinear dynamics of self-centring structures, over a wide range of excitation frequencies and amplitudes. The methodology, applied to multi-storey steel frames, captures the presence of sub-harmonic resonances and higher-modes. It is also demonstrated that the additional demands observed in the rocking columns are the consequence of the asymmetry of the member boundary conditions