Sustainability assessment of housing developments : a new methodology

Afin de combattre la dégradation rapide des écosystèmes mondiaux ainsi que l'épuisement des ressources naturelles, les gouvernements et les autorités de planification recherchent des formes de développement plus durables. La nécessité d'évaluer la «soutenabilité» des propositions de développement est ainsi de grande importance pour la politique et les décideurs. Cependant, des méthodes efficaces pour évaluer la durabilité globale des développements de logement (proposés ou existants) ne sont pas encore établies. Les objectifs de ces recherches adressent ce problème en présentant une nouvelle méthodologie conçue pour évaluer la durabilité des systèmes complexes de développement de logement. Une méthode pour évaluer des indicateurs de durabilité sur une «échelle de soutenabilité», basée sur des centiles d'une population avec l'utilisation de ressource audessus d'un seuil soutenable, a été développée. Cette méthode a été couplée à une technique pour modéliser les systèmes de développement complexes de logement en utilisant la simulation multi-agent. La méthodologie a été mise en pratique dans un cas d'étude du groupe de logements, Christie Walk, situé au centre-ville d'Adélaïde en Australie. Les résultats de cette évaluation ont demontré que Christie Walk est plus soutenable que la plupart de la zone métropolitaine d'Adélaïde. Les resultats des analyses de scénario montrent aussi l'importance d'une bonne infrastructure et conception des développements pour réduire les impacts du comportement humain sur la durabilité des logements. On envisage que cette nouvelle méthodologie, qui couple l'évaluation de la durabilité avec une technique de modélisation integrée, fournira une base fondementale pour résoudre plusieurs des défis auxquels font actuellement face les chercheurs en développement durable, les décideurs et les autorités de planification des environnements urbains en Australie et dans le reste du monde. / In order to combat the rapid degradation of the world's ecosystems and depletion of natural resources, governments and planning authorities are searching for more sustainable forms of development. The need to assess the sustainability of development proposals is thus of great importance to policy and decision makers. However, effective methods of assessing the overall sustainability of housing developments (proposed or existing) have yet to be established. This research aims to address this problem by presenting a new methodology to assess the sustainability of housing development systems. The methodology uses indicators with a common Sustainability Scale which is derived from percentiles of a population with resource use above a predetermined sustainable level, and has been coupled with a technique for modelling complex housing development systems using multiagent based simulation. The methodology was shown to be operational in the case study application of the Christie Walk housing development in inner-city Adelaide, Australia. The results of the assessment showed that the development compared favourably to the rest of the Adelaide metropolitan area. The case study also highlighted, through behavioural scenario analyses, the importance of good infrastructure and design in reducing the impacts of human behaviour on housing development sustainability. It is envisaged that this new methodology of combining sustainability assessment with an integrated modelling technique will provide the basis for a solution to many of the challenges currently facing sustainability researchers, policy makers and planning authorities of urban environments both in Australia and world wide

Aiding multi-level decision-making processes for climate change mitigation and adaptation

Progress towards climate change aware regional sustainable development is affected by actions at multiple spatial scales and governance levels and equally impacts actions at these scales. Many authors and policy practitioners consider therefore that decisions over policy, mitigation strategies and capacity for adaptation to climate change require construction and coordination over multiple levels of governance to arrive at acceptable local, regional and global management strategies. However, how such processes of coordination and decision-aiding can occur and be maintained and improved over time is a major challenge in need of investigation. We take on this challenge by proposing research-supported methods of aiding multi-level decision-making processes in this context. Four example regionally focussed multi-level case studies from diverse socio-political contexts are outlined-estuarine management in Australia's Lower Hawkesbury, flood and drought management in Bulgaria's Upper Iskar Basin, climate policy integration in Spain's Comunidad Valenciana and food security in Bangladesh's Faridpur District-from which insights are drawn. Our discussion focuses on exploring these insights including: (1) the possible advantages of informal research-supported processes and specifically those that provide individual arenas of participation for different levels of stakeholders; (2) the complexity of organisation processes required for aiding multi-level decision-making processes; and (3) to what extent progress towards integrated regional policies for climate change aware sustainable development can be achieved through research-supported processes. We finish with a speculative section that provides ideas and directions for future research

Urban climate change adaptation pathways for short to long term decision-making

Climate resilience is increasingly an attribute of competitive global cities. Cities that are most responsive to change will continue to prosper. To achieve this, governance structures and decision-making approaches that promote flexible and/or robust adaptation action are required. This thesis introduces a framework for urban adaptation planning that links medium-term risk management with the development and appraisal of long-term adaptation pathways. A long-term plan informed by the appraisal of a range of plausible pathways provides the opportunity to retain the flexibility to respond to future uncertainties, whilst also demonstrating how a city could manage future climate risk. This provides stakeholders with confidence that long-term risk is adequately considered, even if there is not a need to act immediately. To demonstrate how adaptation pathways can support adaptation decision-making in an urban system, the approach and methods developed as part of this thesis are applied in London. Adaptation pathways in response to water scarcity, surface water flood and heat risk were developed, and their appraisal presented as pathways diagrams. These diagrams provide a visual representation of the sequencing of decision points and plausible adaptation actions that may be implemented in the future. Pathways diagrams present climate risk and adaptation information for decision-makers in a salient and actionable manner. The pathways responding to individual risks in London are then brought together to demonstrate how an integrated assessment framework may be used to appraise city-scale adaptation pathways that respond to multiple climate risks. The growing emphasis within adaptation planning on approaches that can react flexibly to change increases the need to better understand the dynamics of climate risk and embed learning about the effectiveness of adaptation actions. To complement the pathways and adaptation decision-making research presented in this thesis, a framework that links adaptation monitoring and evaluation (M&E;), risk assessment and decision-making is presented and explored to highlight the potential benefits of, and mechanisms for, adaptation M&E; to inform and strengthen iterative risk-based adaptation planning. Demonstrated for the Thames Estuary, where concepts of adaptation planning have been pioneered but the opportunities of linking to monitoring and evaluation have not been extensively explored, we show how the framework can highlight actions and factors that are contributing to improving adaptation outcomes and those that require strengthening. This thesis contributes to the literature on urban climate change adaptation planning under conditions of uncertainty. This thesis also contributes to the evidence base needed to justify long-term planning and realise the benefits of climate risk reduction through the implementation of flexible, long-term integrated urban adaptation plans