The utility of convection-permitting ensembles for the prediction of stationary convective bands

This study examines convection-permitting numerical simulations of four cases of terrain-locked quasi-stationary convective bands over the UK. For each case, a 2.2-km grid-length 12-member ensemble and 1.5-km grid-length deterministic forecast are analyzed, each with two different initialization times. Object-based verification is applied to determine whether the simulations capture the structure, location, timing, intensity and duration of the observed precipitation. These verification diagnostics reveal that the forecast skill varies greatly between the four cases. Although the deterministic and ensemble simulations captured some aspects of the precipitation correctly in each case, they never simultaneously captured all of them satisfactorily. In general, the models predicted banded precipitation accumulations at approximately the correct time and location, but the precipitating structures were more cellular and less persistent than the coherent quasi-stationary bands that were observed. Ensemble simulations from the two different initialization times were not significantly different, which suggests a potential benefit of time-lagging subsequent ensembles to increase ensemble size. The predictive skill of the upstream larger-scale flow conditions and the simulated precipitation on the convection-permitting grids were strongly correlated, which suggests that more accurate forecasts from the parent ensemble should improve the performance of the convection-permitting ensemble nested within it

Translation to practice: a randomised controlled study of an evidenced based booklet targeted at breast care nurses in the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND: In the United Kingdom (UK), it was documented that a problem of knowledge transfer existed within the speciality of breast-cancer care, thus depriving patients of receiving optimal care. Despite increasingly robust research evidence indicating recommendation of whole body exercise for people affected by breast cancer, commensurate changes to practice were not noted amongst breast-care nurses (BCNs). AIM: To evaluate the effect of a targeted booklet, Exercise and Breast Cancer: A Booklet for Breast-Care Nurses, on changes in knowledge, reported practice, and attitudes of BCNs in the UK. METHOD: A prospective, experimental approach was used for designing a pre- and post-test randomised controlled study. Comparisons of knowledge, reported practice, and attitudes based on responses to a questionnaire were made at two time-points in two groups of BCNs (control and experimental). The unit of randomisation and analysis was hospital clusters of BCNs. The sample comprised 92 nurses from 62 hospitals. Analysis consisted of descriptive statistics and clustered regression techniques: clustered logistic regression for knowledge items, clustered linear regression for knowledge scores, ologit for attitude and reported practice items, and clustered multiple regression for paired and multiple variable analysis. RESULTS: A statistically significant increase in knowledge and changes in reported practice and attitudes were found. Robust variables affecting knowledge acquisition were: promotion of health, promotion of exercise, and understanding how exercise can reduce cancer-related fatigue. DISCUSSION: The study has shown that evidence-based printed material, such as an information booklet, can be used as an effective research dissemination method when developed for needs, values, and context of a target audience. CONCLUSIONS: This practical approach to research dissemination could be replicated and applied to other groups of nurses.</p

Promoting physical exercise in breast cancer care

This article is intended to promote awareness of physical exercise as a safe, advantageous and feasible intervention for the individual who has or has had breast cancer. It will specify the numerous and varied benefits of exercise and focus on the implications for nursing practice in light of current research evidence.</p

Climatology of size, shape and intensity of precipitation features over Great Britain and Ireland

A climatology of precipitation features (or objects) from the Great Britain and Ireland radar-derived precipitation mosaic from 2006–2015 is constructed, with features defined as contiguous areas of nonzero precipitation rates. Over the ten years, there are 54,811,747 non-unique precipitating features over 100 km2 in area, with a median precipitation-feature area of 249 km2, median major axis length of 29.2 km, median aspect ratio of 2.0, median feature mean precipitation rate of 0.49 mm h-1, and median feature maximum precipitation rate of 2.4 mm h-1. Small-scale precipitating systems are most common, but larger systems exceeding 10,000 km2 contribute close to 70% of the annual precipitation across the study region. Precipitation feature characteristics are sensitive to changes in annual and diurnal environment, with feature intensities peaking during the afternoon in summer and the largest precipitation features occurring during winter. Precipitation intensities less than 5 mm h-1 comprise 97.3% of all precipitation occurrence and contribute 83.6% of the total precipitation over land. Banded-precipitation features (defined as precipitation features with aspect ratio at least 3:1 and major axis length at least 100 km) comprise 3% of all precipitation features by occurrence, but contribute 23.7% of the total precipitation. Mesoscale banded features (defined as banded-precipitation features with major axis length at least 100 km and total area not exceeding 10,000 km2) and mesoscale convective banded features (defined as banded-precipitation features with at least 100 km2 of precipitation rates exceeding 10 mm h-1) are most prevalent in southwestern England with mesoscale convective banded features contributing up to 2% of precipitation

The Spanish Plume Elevated Mixed Layer: A Review of Its Use and Misuse within the Scientific Literature

The Spanish plume is a synoptic pattern associated with deep moist convective storms in western and central Europe. A large-amplitude trough or cutoff low in the jet stream extending to low latitudes produces a long fetch of southerly or southwesterly flow in the lower troposphere across the Iberian Peninsula and into Europe. The preconvective environment is traditionally characterized by an elevated mixed layer of hot dry air with steep lapse rates (i.e., the Spanish plume airstream) overtop a warm surface layer and capping inversion, resembling the loaded-gun convective sounding. A literature review of 102 peer-reviewed journal articles mentioning the Spanish plume is performed (of which 84 have onlypassing mentions). Some articles correctly employ the original definition of the Spanish plume airstream as the dry elevated mixed layer, whereas others incorrectly apply the term to the surface (sometimes humid) airstream. The origin of the airstream is variously described as the Iberian Peninsula, northern Africa, or both, often unevidenced. Some air in so-called Spanish plumes does not even cross Spain. Descriptions of convective storms in Spanish plume synoptic patterns also are largely unevidenced, with release of instability attributed to various synoptic-scale and mesoscale processes. This review reveals these and other issues with the literature on the Spanish plume, painting a sometimes unevidenced, inconsistent, unclear, and inaccurate picture. The goals are to recommend proper usage of the term Spanish plume and articulate futureresearch questions, specifically related to quantifying interactions with terrain through diurnal sensible heat fluxes and orographic flow modification to produce favorable environments for convective storms.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: The Spanish plume is a weather pattern favoring intense thunderstorms in the United Kingdom and northwest Europe. It is traditionally associated with a long fetch of southerly or southwesterly winds that transport air heated by the high Spanish Plateau aloft overtop near-surface air. However, some articles use this term incorrectly. Other articles make unevidenced claims or claims that are inconsistent internally or with other literature. This review aims to 1) standardize terminology so that the Spanish plume term is used correctly and 2) improve understanding through recommending research related to how the Spanish Plateau influences thunderstorm development. Consistent understanding and usage of scientific terms is important for clear and concise communication with other scientists, as well as the general public

Climatology of banded precipitation over the contiguous United States

A climatology of banded-precipitation features over the contiguous United States from 2003–2014 is constructed. A band is defined as a precipitation feature with a major axis of 100 km or greater and a ratio of major axis length to minor axis length (hereafter, aspect ratio) of 3:1 or greater. By applying an automated feature-based detection algorithm to composite radar imagery, a database of 48,916,844 precipitation features is created, of which 7,213,505 (14.8%) are bands. This algorithm produces the first climatology of precipitation bands over the contiguous United States. Banded precipitation occurrence is broadly similar to total precipitation occurrence, with a maximum of 175 hours of banded precipitation annually over the Ohio River Valley. In the warm season, there is a strong diurnal signature associated with convective storm development for both precipitation feature area and total area covered by precipitation, but little diurnal signature in aspect ratio. A strong west-east gradient in both precipitation occurrence and banded precipitation occurrence exist, as areas west of the Rockies receive less frequent precipitation, which is much less likely to be banded. East of the Rockies, precipitation features are banded 30% of the time, versus 10–15% west of the Rockies. Areas downwind of the Great Lakes show prominent late autumn and winter maxima in banded precipitation associated with lake-effect snowbands. Local maxima of banded precipitation percentage occur in the Dakotas and east of the Colorado Rockies during winter. Although banded-precipitation features comprise only 14.8% of all precipitation features, they contribute 21.9% of the annual precipitation occurrence over the contiguous United States