Doubly robust Bayesian inference for non-stationary streaming data with β-divergences

We present the very first robust Bayesian Online Changepoint Detection algorithm through General Bayesian Inference (GBI) with β-divergences. The resulting inference procedure is doubly robust for both the predictive and the changepoint (CP) posterior, with linear time and constant space complexity. We provide a construction for exponential models and demonstrate it on the Bayesian Linear Regression model. In so doing, we make two additional contributions: Firstly, we make GBI scalable using Structural Variational approximations that are exact as β→0 . Secondly, we give a principled way of choosing the divergence parameter β by minimizing expected predictive loss on-line. We offer the state of the art and improve the False Discovery Rate of CP S by more than 80% on real world data

Greenhouse gas production in degrading ice-rich permafrost deposits in northeastern Siberia

Permafrost deposits have been a sink for atmospheric carbon for millennia. Thaw-erosional processes, however, can lead to rapid degradation of ice-rich permafrost and the release of substantial amounts of organic carbon (OC). The amount of the OC stored in these deposits and their potential to be microbially decomposed to the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) depends on climatic and environmental conditions during deposition and the decomposition history before incorporation into the permafrost. Here, we examine potential greenhouse gas production in degrading ice-rich permafrost deposits from three locations in the northeast Siberian Laptev Sea region. The deposits span a period of about 55 kyr from the last glacial period and Holocene interglacial. Samples from all three locations were incubated under aerobic and anaerobic conditions for 134 days at 4 °C. Greenhouse gas production was generally higher in deposits from glacial periods, where 0.2–6.1% of the initially available OC was decomposed to CO2. In contrast, only 0.1–4.0% of initial OC were decomposed in permafrost deposits from the Holocene and the late glacial transition. Within the deposits from the Kargin interstadial period (Marine Isotope Stage 3), local depositional environments, especially soil moisture, also affected the preservation of OC. Sediments deposited under wet conditions contained more labile OC and thus produced more greenhouse gases than sediments deposited under drier conditions. To assess the greenhouse gas production potentials over longer periods, deposits from two locations were incubated for a total of 785 days. However, more than 50% of total CO2 production over 785 days occurred within the first 134 days under aerobic conditions while even 80% were produced over the same period under anaerobic conditions, which emphasizes the non-linearity of the OC decomposition processes. Methanogenesis was generally observed in active layer samples but only sporadically in permafrost samples and was several orders of magnitude smaller than CO2 production

Passive phloem loading and long-distance transport in a synthetic tree-on-a-chip

Vascular plants rely on differences of osmotic pressure to export sugars from regions of synthesis (mature leaves) to sugar sinks (roots, fruits). In this process, known as M\"unch pressure flow, the loading of sugars from photosynthetic cells to the export conduit (the phloem) is crucial, as it sets the pressure head necessary to power long-distance transport. Whereas most herbaceous plants use active mechanisms to increase phloem concentration above that of the photosynthetic cells, in most tree species, for which transport distances are largest, loading seems to occur via passive symplastic diffusion from the mesophyll to the phloem. Here, we use a synthetic microfluidic model of a passive loader to explore the nonlinear dynamics that arise during export and determine the ability of passive loading to drive long-distance transport. We first demonstrate that in our device, phloem concentration is set by the balance between the resistances to diffusive loading from the source and convective export through the phloem. Convection-limited export corresponds to classical models of M\"unch transport, where phloem concentration is close to that of the source; in contrast, diffusion-limited export leads to small phloem concentrations and weak scaling of flow rates with the hydraulic resistance. We then show that the effective regime of convection-limited export is predominant in plants with large transport resistances and low xylem pressures. Moreover, hydrostatic pressures developed in our synthetic passive loader can reach botanically relevant values as high as 10 bars. We conclude that passive loading is sufficient to drive long-distance transport in large plants, and that trees are well suited to take full advantage of passive phloem loading strategies

Deep Yedoma permafrost: A synthesis of depositional characteristics and carbon vulnerability

Permafrost is a distinct feature of the terrestrial Arctic and is vulnerable to climate warming. Permafrost degrades in different ways, including deepening of a seasonally unfrozen surface and localized but rapid development of deep thaw features. Pleistocene ice-rich permafrost with syngenetic ice-wedges, termed Yedoma deposits, are widespread in Siberia, Alaska, and Yukon, Canada and may be especially prone to rapid-thaw processes. Freeze-locked organic matter in such deposits can be re-mobilized on short time-scales and contribute to a carbon cycle climate feedback. Here we synthesize the characteristics and vulnerability of Yedoma deposits by synthesizing studies on the Yedoma origin and the associated organic carbon pool. We suggest that Yedoma deposits accumulated under periglacial weathering, transport, and deposition dynamics in non-glaciated regions during the late Pleistocene until the beginning of late glacial warming. The deposits formed due to a combination of aeolian, colluvial, nival, and alluvial deposition and simultaneous ground ice accumulation. We found up to 130 gigatons organic carbon in Yedoma, parts of which are well-preserved and available for fast decomposition after thaw. Based on incubation experiments, up to 10% of the Yedoma carbon is considered especially decomposable and may be released upon thaw. The substantial amount of ground ice in Yedoma makes it highly vulnerable to disturbances such as thermokarst and thermo-erosion processes. Mobilization of permafrost carbon is expected to increase under future climate warming. Our synthesis results underline the need of accounting for Yedoma carbon stocks in next generation Earth-System-Models for a more complete representation of the permafrost-carbon feedback

Measurement of the Associated γ+μ±\gamma + \mu^\pm Production Cross Section in ppˉp \bar p Collisions at s=1.8\sqrt{s} = 1.8 TeV

We present the first measurement of associated direct photon + muon production in hadronic collisions, from a sample of 1.8 TeV $p \bar p$ collisions recorded with the Collider Detector at Fermilab. Quantum chromodynamics (QCD) predicts that these events are primarily from the Compton scattering process $cg \to c\gamma$, with the final state charm quark producing a muon. Hence this measurement is sensitive to the charm quark content of the proton. The measured cross section of $29\pm 9 pb^{-1}$ is compared to a leading-order QCD parton shower model as well as a next-to-leading-order QCD calculation.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figures Added more detailed description of muon background estimat

Measurement of the B0 anti-B0 oscillation frequency using l- D*+ pairs and lepton flavor tags

The oscillation frequency Delta-md of B0 anti-B0 mixing is measured using the partially reconstructed semileptonic decay anti-B0 -> l- nubar D*+ X. The data sample was collected with the CDF detector at the Fermilab Tevatron collider during 1992 - 1995 by triggering on the existence of two lepton candidates in an event, and corresponds to about 110 pb-1 of pbar p collisions at sqrt(s) = 1.8 TeV. We estimate the proper decay time of the anti-B0 meson from the measured decay length and reconstructed momentum of the l- D*+ system. The charge of the lepton in the final state identifies the flavor of the anti-B0 meson at its decay. The second lepton in the event is used to infer the flavor of the anti-B0 meson at production. We measure the oscillation frequency to be Delta-md = 0.516 +/- 0.099 +0.029 -0.035 ps-1, where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second is systematic.Comment: 30 pages, 7 figures. Submitted to Physical Review

Improved quantification of microbial CH<sub>4</sub> oxidation efficiency in arctic wetland soils using carbon isotope fractionation

Permafrost-affected tundra soils are significant sources of the climate-relevant trace gas methane (CH4). The observed accelerated warming of the arctic will cause deeper permafrost thawing, followed by increased carbon mineralization and CH4 formation in water-saturated tundra soils, thus creating a positive feedback to climate change. Aerobic CH4 oxidation is regarded as the key process reducing CH4 emissions from wetlands, but quantification of turnover rates has remained difficult so far. The application of carbon stable isotope fractionation enables the in situ quantification of CH4 oxidation efficiency in arctic wetland soils. The aim of the current study is to quantify CH4 oxidation efficiency in permafrost-affected tundra soils in Russia's Lena River delta based on stable isotope signatures of CH4. Therefore, depth profiles of CH4 concentrations and δ13CH4 signatures were measured and the fractionation factors for the processes of oxidation (αox) and diffusion (αdiff) were determined. Most previous studies employing stable isotope fractionation for the quantification of CH4 oxidation in soils of other habitats (such as landfill cover soils) have assumed a gas transport dominated by advection (αtrans = 1). In tundra soils, however, diffusion is the main gas transport mechanism and diffusive stable isotope fractionation should be considered alongside oxidative fractionation. For the first time, the stable isotope fractionation of CH4 diffusion through water-saturated soils was determined with an αdiff = 1.001 ± 0.000 (n = 3). CH4 stable isotope fractionation during diffusion through air-filled pores of the investigated polygonal tundra soils was αdiff = 1.013 ± 0.003 (n = 18). Furthermore, it was found that αox differs widely between sites and horizons (mean αox = 1.017 ± 0.009) and needs to be determined on a case by case basis. The impact of both fractionation factors on the quantification of CH4 oxidation was analyzed by considering both the potential diffusion rate under saturated and unsaturated conditions and potential oxidation rates. For a submerged, organic-rich soil, the data indicate a CH4 oxidation efficiency of 50% at the anaerobic–aerobic interface in the upper horizon. The improved in situ quantification of CH4 oxidation in wetlands enables a better assessment of current and potential CH4 sources and sinks in permafrost-affected ecosystems and their potential strengths in response to global warming

An introduction to video methods in organizational research

Video has become a methodological tool of choice for many researchers in social science, but video methods are relatively new to the field of organization studies. This article is an introduction to video methods. First, we situate video methods relative to other kinds of research, suggesting that video recordings and analyses can be used to replace or supplement other approaches, not only observational studies but also retrospective methods such as interviews and surveys. Second, we describe and discuss various features of video data in relation to ontological assumptions that researchers may bring to their research design. Video involves both opportunities and pitfalls for researchers, who ought to use video methods in ways that are consistent with their assumptions about the world and human activity. Third, we take a critical look at video methods by reporting progress that has been made while acknowledging gaps and work that remains to be done. Our critical considerations point repeatedly at articles in this special issue, which represent recent and important advances in video method

Towards neuro-inspired symbolic models of cognition: linking neural dynamics to behaviors through asynchronous communications

A computational architecture modeling the relation between perception and action is proposed. Basic brain processes representing synaptic plasticity are first abstracted through asynchronous communication protocols and implemented as virtual microcircuits. These are used in turn to build mesoscale circuits embodying parallel cognitive processes. Encoding these circuits into symbolic expressions gives finally rise to neuro-inspired programs that are compiled into pseudo-code to be interpreted by a virtual machine. Quantitative evaluation measures are given by the modification of synapse weights over time. This approach is illustrated by models of simple forms of behaviors exhibiting cognition up to the third level of animal awareness. As a potential benefit, symbolic models of emergent psychological mechanisms could lead to the discovery of the learning processes involved in the development of cognition. The executable specifications of an experimental platform allowing for the reproduction of simulated experiments are given in “Appendix”

Two stages of parafoveal processing during reading: Evidence from a display change detection task

We used a display change detection paradigm (Slattery, Angele, & Rayner Human Perception and Performance, 37, 1924–1938 2011) to investigate whether display change detection uses orthographic regularity and whether detection is affected by the processing difficulty of the word preceding the boundary that triggers the display change. Subjects were significantly more sensitive to display changes when the change was from a nonwordlike preview than when the change was from a wordlike preview, but the preview benefit effect on the target word was not affected by whether the preview was wordlike or nonwordlike. Additionally, we did not find any influence of preboundary word frequency on display change detection performance. Our results suggest that display change detection and lexical processing do not use the same cognitive mechanisms. We propose that parafoveal processing takes place in two stages: an early, orthography-based, preattentional stage, and a late, attention-dependent lexical access stage