Application of a Multi-Criteria Integrated Portfolio Model for Quantifying South Africa’s Crude Oil Import Risk

e availability of secure energy resources at sustainable quantities and affordable prices is fundamental to South Africa’s current objective of enhancing and sustaining its current growth trajectory. Economic reforms, since the early 1990s, have led to the economy growing at an average rate of almost 5% per annum. A major consequence of this strong growth is the rapid increase in domestic demand for oil energy. With small amounts of proven oil reserves, the rise in oil demand as an essential energy source has prompted an increasing reliance on external sources for domestic crude oil supplies. High oil prices, the extent of proven oil reserves, instability in major oil producing regions and the rise in ‘oil-nationalism’ have raised serious concerns about the security of South Africa’s oil supplies. In this context, a comprehensive understanding of oil import security risks is critical as it will guide in the formulation of energy policy framework aimed at alleviating the impact of oil import risks. This study utilises portfolio theory to provide quantitative measures of systematic and specific risks of South Africa’s crude oil imports over the period 1994 to 2007. It explains the relationship between supply sources diversification and oil energy security risks, and highlights the impact of different crude oil import policy adjustment strategies on the total crude oil import risk for South Africa. The results for the adjustment strategies show that: (a) a policy of having the same quantity of oil imported every month or a constant quantity of oil imported from the supply regions reduces both systematic and specific risks of oil import portfolio, and (b) a reduction in specific risks of South Africa’s oil imports can be achieved if some of the Middle Eastern supplies can be diversified to less risk regions of Europe, North America and Russia.Oil Import Risks, Portfolio Theory, Analytical Hierarchy Process

Identifying social indicators for the BRICS using public data: an investigation of the school dropout phenomenon in Brazil, India and South Africa

Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2017.ENGLISH SUMMARY : The Brazilian, Russian, Indian, Chinese and South African (BRICS) Heads of State in 2014, in Fortaleza Brazil called for the closer cooperation of their statistical agencies and experts to promote the identification of common data methodologies that can be employed to analyse social indicators which measure a common set of challenges in their countries. The study examines the possibility of using data produced locally within Brazil, India and South Africa specifically to assess the singular but complex phenomenon of learners dropping out of school. Although the countries share a common challenge, the reasons behind the challenge differ based on the countries’ varied backgrounds. In addition, each of the countries measure school dropout rates differently but in essence only considers the number of learners who dropout, whilst not describing the determinants of this dropout. This study employs Amartya Sen’s Capability Approach to identify these determinants by identifying the central freedom affecting the learner, viz., the learner’s real freedom to complete school and attain employment and an improved quality of life. This freedom is tested in terms of a Capability Set of functionings that learners aspire to attain or conduct, viz., being physically well, being financially secure, being mentally well, being taught in infrastructure of a suitable standard, being in a conducive home learning environment, travelling to school in a safe manner, feeling free to express themselves in school and lastly, effectively participating in school activities in a meaningful way. These broad functioning are further defined in terms of themes and sub-themes and thereafter datasets from the above mentioned 3 countries are identified in terms of questions that are appropriate to assess the performance of the country. However, the key additional step of this study is to qualify the selection of data variables per sub-theme in terms of the associated level of data quality. By applying data quality theory, a set of dimensions are identified, which are applicable to a data user working with a publicly released dataset. The selected datasets are checked in terms of relevance internationally and amongst Brazil, India and South Africa in terms of their data collection policy priorities. South Africa’s Statistical Assessment Framework was found highly useful, as the framework shared many of the identified data quality dimensions and assisted in developing the framework practically. In applying the newly constructed Public Data Quality Assessment Framework, the identified datasets were assessed in terms of the data quality dimensions and their level of data quality was rated. South Africa’s surveys produced by Statistics South Africa were rated strongest. Ultimately, relevant data can be sourced from the BRICS, however the variables identified are nuanced and pertain to the priorities of the countries. Greater effort is need to promote collaboration amongst the BRICS to produce comparable data, informed by common methodologies and data quality standards.AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING : In 2014 het die Staatshoofde van Brasilie, Rusland, Indie en Suid-Afrika(BRICS), in Fortaleza, Brasilie, versoek dat hul statistiek-agentskappe en –kundiges nouer moet saamwerk ter bevordering van die identifisering van gemene data metodologie wat prakties aangewend kan word om sosiale aanwysers, wat 'n stel gemeenskaplike uitdagings meet, te analiseer. Die studie ondersoek die moontlikheid om data wat plaaslik in Brasilie, Indie en Suid-Afrika verwerf is, te gebruik om die spesifieke verskynsel van leerders wat skool te vroeg verlaat (vroeg uitval), te analiseer. Alhoewel bogenoemde 'n gemeenskaplike uitdaging is verskil die redes vir die verskynsel op grond van lande se uiteenlopende agtergronde. Daarbenewens meet elke land die skooluitvalsyfer anders en in wese word slegs die aantal leerders wat uitval in ag geneem, sonder om die redes daarvoor te beskryf. Hierdie studie gebruik Amartya Sen se “Capability Approach”, (Vermoensbenadering) om die redes te identifiseer. Sen se benadering fokus op die identifisering van die sentrale vryheid van die leerder, nl. die ware vryheid van die leerder om sy/haar skoolloopbaan te voltooi en om n indiensnemingsvlak te bereik om sodoende 'n verbeterde lewenskwaliteit te bekom. Hierdie vryheid word gemeet in terme van n’ vermoe-stel van funksionaliteit wat leerders wil bereik, nl. om fisiek gesond te wees, om finansieel veilig te wees, om geestelik gesond te wees, om onderrig te word in 'n infrastruktuur van 'n geskikte standaard, om 'n bevorderlike leeromgewing tuis te hê, om veilig by die skool te kom, om vry te voel om hom/haarself by die skool uit te druk en laastens om effektief en sinvol deel te neem aan skoolaktiwiteite. Hierdie funksionaliteit word verder tematies en subtematies omskryf. Daarna word stelle data van bogenoemde lande geidentifiseer deur middel van vrae wat geskik is om die lande se prestasie te evalueer. Die addisionele sleutelstap van hierdie studie is egter om die seleksie van dataveranderlikes per subtema te kwalifiseer met betrekking tot die verbandsvlak van kwaliteit data. Deur n datakwaliteitsteorie toe te pas, word 'n stel dimensies geidentifiseer, wat bruikbaar is vir 'n data gebruiker wat te doen het met publieke publikasies van data. Die geselekteerde stelle data word geverifieer in terme van die relevansie daarvan internasionaal en is ook geweeg teen Brasilie, Indie en Suid-Afrika se dataversamelings-beleidprioriteite Suid-Afrika se Statistieke Assesseringsraamwerk is baie nuttig, aangesien die raamwerk baie van die geidentifiseerde data se kwaliteitsdimensies kon deel en hulp verleen met betrekking tot die praktiese ontwikkeling van die gebruikte raamwerk. Die nuut-saamgestelde Openbare Datakwaliteitsraamwerk is gebruik om die geidentifiseerde stelle data te evalueer in terme van die datakwaliteitsdimensies en die gradering van die kwaliteitsvlak van die data. Suid-Afrika se opnames, gedoen deur Statistieke Suid-Afrika, is die hoogste gegradeer. Uiteindelik kan relevante inligting van BRICS verkry word. Die veranderlikes is egter genuanseerd en het betrekking op die land se prioriteite. Meer pogings is nodig om samewerking onder die BRICS lande aan te moedig, ter bevordering van die inwin van data deur gemene metodologie en datakwaliteitsstandaarde

Navigating the Transition to Inclusive Online Learning in BRICS and Africa

In response to COVID-19 lockdowns, universities in Africa and BRICS nations swiftly transitioned from contact to online learning to maintain academic progress. This article explores critical questions these institutions must address to develop effective long-term online learning policies, rooted in Swartz’s (2022) Navigational Capacities framework. It highlights the risk of deepening digital inequalities if the limitations of emergency remote learning are overlooked. Focusing on the experiences of the BRICS, Ghana, Uganda, and Ethiopia, the article analyses their online learning approaches during 2020 and 2021 amidst the pandemic. This analysis, through the Navigational Capacities lens, emphasises addressing key challenges such as technology access, affordability, and digital skills. Many universities initially transferred traditional teaching methods to online platforms without a pedagogical redesign to optimise digital tools, underscoring a need for a strategic shift. Going forward, universities must understand the requirements of an effective long-term online learning programme, weighing the economic costs of such an approach. Crucially, universities across BRICS and the Global South must continue to share knowledge about these experiences as they develop policies which define an effective long-term online learning programme

Navigating the Transition to Inclusive Online Learning in BRICS and Africa

In response to COVID-19 lockdowns, universities in Africa and BRICS nations swiftly transitioned from contact to online learning to maintain academic progress. This article explores critical questions these institutions must address to develop effective long-term online learning policies, rooted in Swartz’s (2022) Navigational Capacities framework. It highlights the risk of deepening digital inequalities if the limitations of emergency remote learning are overlooked. Focusing on the experiences of the BRICS, Ghana, Uganda, and Ethiopia, the article analyses their online learning approaches during 2020 and 2021 amidst the pandemic. This analysis, through the Navigational Capacities lens, emphasises addressing key challenges such as technology access, affordability, and digital skills. Many universities initially transferred traditional teaching methods to online platforms without a pedagogical redesign to optimise digital tools, underscoring a need for a strategic shift. Going forward, universities must understand the requirements of an effective long-term online learning programme, weighing the economic costs of such an approach. Crucially, universities across BRICS and the Global South must continue to share knowledge about these experiences as they develop policies which define an effective long-term online learning programme

African universities – working towards an inclusive digital future in a post-COVID-19 world

In response to COVID-19 restrictions, many African universities rapidly implemented online learning. This article identifies a set of critical success factors which should inform a university’s decision to adopt online learning. Online learning potentially amplifies existing inequalities among the student population where matters of digital inclusion are not addressed. By analysing documents from a selection of African universities, we review how they responded to lockdown restrictions. Our analysis applies our framework of critical success factors from the university, the educator and the student’s perspectives. These success factors include an institution’s socio-economic circumstances, cultural readiness and e-readiness, participation in decision-making, and educators and students’ personal and household-level circumstances. Our study highlights important learnings and makes recommendations towards an inclusive digital future of African universities in a post-COVID-19 world

How to Promote Worker Wellbeing in the Platform Economy in the Global SouthHow to Promote Worker Wellbeing in the Platform Economy in the Global South

Fil: Aneja, Urvashi. Tandem Research; IndiaFil: Chetty, Krish. Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC); SudáfricaFil: Albrieu, Ramiro. CEDES. Centro de Estudio de Estado y Sociedad, Área de Economía. Centro de Implementación de Políticas Públicas para la Equidad y el Crecimiento (CIPPEC); ArgentinaFil: Rapetti, Martín. CEDES. Centro de Estudio de Estado y Sociedad, Área de Economía. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET). Centro de Implementación de Políticas Públicas para la Equidad y el Crecimiento (CIPPEC); ArgentinaThe growth of the platform economy is creating new opportunities and efficiencies in G20 economies. However, gig-work can often be precarious, with reduced access to formal social protection mechanisms. This poses unique opportunities and challenges for many G20 countries, where a large section of the workforce is engaged in informal work across both the unorganised and organised sectors of the economy. For the sustained and inclusive growth of the platform economy, the wellbeing of workers must be prioritized. Drawing on research undertaken in India, South Africa and Argentina, this policy brief outlines strategies for governments, industries and civil society to safeguard and enhance worker well being in the platform economy

Bridging the digital divide in the G20: skills for the new age

The digital divide in general, and between women and men in particular, is a manifestation of exclusion, poverty and inequality, and is likely to continue because of the effects of unemployment, poorly functioning digital skilling programmes and socio-cultural norms in some economies, and further depriving women equal access to digital services. Digital skills provide the poor a catalyst to break out of the cycle of poverty and empower themselves. This paper considers a three-pronged digital skills strategy that will be required for developing countries to break out of the digital divide trap: (1) Monitor the evolving set of digital skills required for employment (2) incorporate a holistic digital skills development strategy into national education programmes, and (3) contextualize skilling programs within prevailing socio-cultural norms that will shape the uptake and impact of digital skilling programs