Indonesian foreign policy under President Jokowi

In this Lowy Institute Analysis, Aaron L. Connelly previews the likely direction of Indonesian foreign policy under President-elect Joko \u27Jokowi\u27 Widodo, highlighting major issues and profiling key advisers. Key findings: Jokowi will leave foreign policy-making to key advisers, creating greater opportunities for competition over policy between the institutions those advisers lead. This competition could make it more difficult for Indonesian foreign policy-makers to define a clear position on key issues. Amidst this greater turbidity, Indonesian leadership in regional affairs could take a hit. Jokowi’s closest advisers are sophisticated and internationalist, but other voices could push Indonesian foreign policy toward more nationalist positions at the margins, impacting on Indonesian relations with Australia

Supersymmetric quantum mechanics and the Korteweg-de Vries hierarchy

The connection between supersymmetric quantum mechanics and the Korteweg- de Vries (KdV) equation is discussed, with particular emphasis on the KdV conservation laws. It is shown that supersymmetric quantum mechanics aids in the derivation of the conservation laws, and gives some insight into the Miura transformation that converts the KdV equation into the modified KdV equation. The construction of the $\tau$-function by means of supersymmetric quantum mechanics is discussed.Comment: 16 pages, latex, EFI 93/2

Statistical Inference for Partially Observed Markov Processes via the R Package pomp

Partially observed Markov process (POMP) models, also known as hidden Markov models or state space models, are ubiquitous tools for time series analysis. The R package pomp provides a very flexible framework for Monte Carlo statistical investigations using nonlinear, non-Gaussian POMP models. A range of modern statistical methods for POMP models have been implemented in this framework including sequential Monte Carlo, iterated filtering, particle Markov chain Monte Carlo, approximate Bayesian computation, maximum synthetic likelihood estimation, nonlinear forecasting, and trajectory matching. In this paper, we demonstrate the application of these methodologies using some simple toy problems. We also illustrate the specification of more complex POMP models, using a nonlinear epidemiological model with a discrete population, seasonality, and extra-demographic stochasticity. We discuss the specification of user-defined models and the development of additional methods within the programming environment provided by pomp.Comment: In press at the Journal of Statistical Software. A version of this paper is provided at the pomp package website: http://kingaa.github.io/pom

A Note on Intersecting and Fluctuating Solitons in 4D Noncommutative Field Theory

We examine the intersections, fluctuations and deformations of codimension two solitons in field theory on noncommutative $R^4$, in the limit of large noncommutativity. We find that holomorphic deformations are zero modes of flat branes, and we show that there is a zero mode localized at the intersection of two solitons.Comment: 19pp LaTeX, refs adde

Economic Impacts of Planned Transportation Investments in New Jersey

This report demonstrates that New Jersey's plans to invest in transportation infrastructure over the next decade will result in nearly 27,000 full-time jobs per year. It also shows that the state's transportation investments will generate economic impacts in the form of employment, income, gross domestic product, and state and local tax revenues. The report is the result of a joint study conducted by the Heldrich Center and the Center for Urban Policy Research at Rutgers University's Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy