Population assessment of future trajectories in coronary heart disease mortality.

Background: Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates have been decreasing in Iceland since the 1980s, largely reflecting improvements in cardiovascular risk factors. The purpose of this study was to predict future CHD mortality in Iceland based on potential risk factor trends. Methods and findings: The previously validated IMPACT model was used to predict changes in CHD mortality between 2010 and 2040 among the projected population of Iceland aged 25–74. Calculations were based on combining: i) data on population numbers and projections (Statistics Iceland), ii) population risk factor levels and projections (Refine Reykjavik study), and iii) effectiveness of specific risk factor reductions (published meta-analyses). Projections for three contrasting scenarios were compared: 1) If the historical risk factor trends of past 30 years were to continue, the declining death rates of past decades would level off, reflecting population ageing. 2) If recent trends in risk factors (past 5 years) continue, this would result in a death rate increasing from 49 to 70 per 100,000. This would reflect a recent plateau in previously falling cholesterol levels and recent rapid increases in obesity and diabetes prevalence. 3) Assuming that in 2040 the entire population enjoys optimal risk factor levels observed in low risk cohorts, this would prevent almost all premature CHD deaths before 2040. Conclusions: The potential increase in CHD deaths with recent trends in risk factor levels is alarming both for Iceland and probably for comparable Western populations. However, our results show considerable room for reducing CHD mortality. Achieving the best case scenario could eradicate premature CHD deaths by 2040. Public health policy interventions based on these predictions may provide a cost effective means of reducing CHD mortality in the future

Realisation of magnetically and atomically abrupt half-metal/semiconductor interface: Co2FeSi0.5Al0.5/Ge(111)

Halfmetal-semiconductor interfaces are crucial for hybrid spintronic devices. Atomically sharp interfaces with high spin polarisation are required for efficient spin injection. In this work we show that thin film of half-metallic full Heusler alloy Co2FeSi0.5Al0.5 with uniform thickness and B2 ordering can form structurally abrupt interface with Ge(111). Atomic resolution energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy reveals that there is a small outdiffusion of Ge into specific atomic planes of the Co2FeSi0.5Al0.5 film, limited to a very narrow 1 nm interface region. First-principles calculations show that this selective outdiffusion along the Fe-Si/Al atomic planes does not change the magnetic moment of the film up to the very interface. Polarized neutron reflectivity, x-ray reflectivity and aberration-corrected electron microscopy confirm that this interface is both magnetically and structurally abrupt. Finally, using first-principles calculations we show that this experimentally realised interface structure, terminated by Co-Ge bonds, preserves the high spin polarization at the Co2FeSi0.5Al0.5/Ge interface, hence can be used as a model to study spin injection from half-metals into semiconductors

Re-evaluation of the mechanisms of dietary fibre and implications for macronutrient bioaccessibility, digestion and postprandial metabolism

The positive effects of dietary fibre on health are now widely recognised; however, our understanding of the mechanisms involved in producing such benefits remains unclear. There are even uncertainties about how dietary fibre in plant foods should be defined and analysed. This review attempts to clarify the confusion regarding the mechanisms of action of dietary fibre and deals with current knowledge on the wide variety of dietary fibre materials, comprising mainly of NSP that are not digested by enzymes of the gastrointestinal (GI) tract. These non-digestible materials range from intact cell walls of plant tissues to individual polysaccharide solutions often used in mechanistic studies. We discuss how the structure and properties of fibre are affected during food processing and how this can impact on nutrient digestibility. Dietary fibre can have multiple effects on GI function, including GI transit time and increased digesta viscosity, thereby affecting flow and mixing behaviour. Moreover, cell wall encapsulation influences macronutrient digestibility through limited access to digestive enzymes and/or substrate and product release. Moreover, encapsulation of starch can limit the extent of gelatinisation during hydrothermal processing of plant foods. Emphasis is placed on the effects of diverse forms of fibre on rates and extents of starch and lipid digestion, and how it is important that a better understanding of such interactions with respect to the physiology and biochemistry of digestion is needed. In conclusion, we point to areas of further investigation that are expected to contribute to realisation of the full potential of dietary fibre on health and well-being of humans

Changes in Dietary Fat Intake and Projections for Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in Sweden: A Simulation Study.

OBJECTIVE: In Sweden, previous favourable trends in blood cholesterol levels have recently levelled off or even increased in some age groups since 2003, potentially reflecting changing fashions and attitudes towards dietary saturated fatty acids (SFA). We aimed to examine the potential effect of different SFA intake on future coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in 2025. METHODS: We compared the effect on future CHD mortality of two different scenarios for fat intake a) daily SFA intake decreasing to 10 energy percent (E%), and b) daily SFA intake rising to 20 E%. We assumed that there would be moderate improvements in smoking (5%), salt intake (1g/day) and physical inactivity (5% decrease) to continue recent, positive trends. RESULTS: In the baseline scenario which assumed that recent mortality declines continue, approximately 5,975 CHD deaths might occur in year 2025. Anticipated improvements in smoking, dietary salt intake and physical activity, would result in some 380 (-6.4%) fewer deaths (235 in men and 145 in women). In combination with a mean SFA daily intake of 10 E%, a total of 810 (-14%) fewer deaths would occur in 2025 (535 in men and 275 in women). If the overall consumption of SFA rose to 20 E%, the expected mortality decline would be wiped out and approximately 20 (0.3%) additional deaths might occur. CONCLUSION: CHD mortality may increase as a result of unfavourable trends in diets rich in saturated fats resulting in increases in blood cholesterol levels. These could cancel out the favourable trends in salt intake, smoking and physical activity

C-reactive protein levels in patients at cardiovascular risk: EURIKA study

Background: Elevated C-reactive protein (CRP) levels are associated with high cardiovascular risk, and might identify patients who could benefit from more carefully adapted risk factor management. We have assessed the prevalence of elevated CRP levels in patients with one or more traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Methods: Data were analysed from the European Study on Cardiovascular Risk Prevention and Management in Usual Daily Practice (EURIKA, ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00882336), which included patients (aged ≥50 years) from 12 European countries with at least one traditional cardiovascular risk factor but no history of cardiovascular disease. Analysis was also carried out on the subset of patients without diabetes mellitus who were not receiving statin therapy. Results: In the overall population, CRP levels were positively correlated with body mass index and glycated haemoglobin levels, and were negatively correlated with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels. CRP levels were also higher in women, those at higher traditionally estimated cardiovascular risk and those with greater numbers of metabolic syndrome markers. Among patients without diabetes mellitus who were not receiving statin therapy, approximately 30% had CRP levels ≥3 mg/L, and approximately 50% had CRP levels ≥2 mg/L, including those at intermediate levels of traditionally estimated cardiovascular risk. Conclusions: CRP levels are elevated in a large proportion of patients with at least one cardiovascular risk factor, without diabetes mellitus who are not receiving statin therapy, suggesting a higher level of cardiovascular risk than predicted according to conventional risk estimation systems

Comparative in situ analyses of cell wall matrix polysaccharide dynamics in developing rice and wheat grain

Cell wall polysaccharides of wheat and rice endosperm are an important source of dietary fibre. Monoclonal antibodies specific to cell wall polysaccharides were used to determine polysaccharide dynamics during the development of both wheat and rice grain. Wheat and rice grain present near synchronous developmental processes and significantly different endosperm cell wall compositions, allowing the localisation of these polysaccharides to be related to developmental changes. Arabinoxylan (AX) and mixed-linkage glucan (MLG) have analogous cellular locations in both species, with deposition of AX and MLG coinciding with the start of grain filling. A glucuronoxylan (GUX) epitope was detected in rice, but not wheat endosperm cell walls. Callose has been reported to be associated with the formation of cell wall outgrowths during endosperm cellularisation and xyloglucan is here shown to be a component of these anticlinal extensions, occurring transiently in both species. Pectic homogalacturonan (HG) was abundant in cell walls of maternal tissues of wheat and rice grain, but only detected in endosperm cell walls of rice in an unesterified HG form. A rhamnogalacturonan-I (RG-I) backbone epitope was observed to be temporally regulated in both species, detected in endosperm cell walls from 12 DAA in rice and 20 DAA in wheat grain. Detection of the LM5 galactan epitope showed a clear distinction between wheat and rice, being detected at the earliest stages of development in rice endosperm cell walls, but not detected in wheat endosperm cell walls, only in maternal tissues. In contrast, the LM6 arabinan epitope was detected in both species around 8 DAA and was transient in wheat grain, but persisted in rice until maturity

Explaining the decline in coronary heart disease mortality in Turkey between 1995 and 2008.

BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates have been decreasing in Turkey since the early 1990s. Our study aimed to determine how much of the CHD mortality decrease in Turkey between 1995 and 2008 could be attributed to temporal trends in major risk factors and how much to advances in medical and surgical treatments. METHODS: The validated IMPACT CHD mortality model was used to combine and analyse data on uptake and effectiveness of CHD treatments and risk factor trends in Turkey in adults aged 35-84 years between 1995 and 2008.Data sources were identified, searched and appraised on population, mortality and major CHD risk factors for adults those aged 35-84 years. Official statistics, electronic databases, national registers, surveys and published trials were screened from 1995 onwards. RESULTS: Between 1995 and 2008, coronary heart disease mortality rates in Turkey decreased by 34% in men and 28% in women 35 years and over. This resulted in 35,720 fewer deaths in 2008.Approximately 47% of this mortality decrease was attributed to treatments in individuals (including approximately 16% to secondary prevention, 3% angina treatments, 9% to heart failure treatments, 5% to initial treatments of acute myocardial infarction, and 5% to hypertension treatments) and approximately 42% was attributable to population risk factor reductions (notably blood pressure 29%; smoking 27%; and cholesterol 1%). Adverse trends were seen for obesity and diabetes (potentially increasing mortality by approximately 11% and 14% respectively). The model explained almost 90% of the mortality fall. CONCLUSION: Reduction in major cardiovascular risk factors explained approximately 42% and improvements in medical and surgical treatments explained some 47% of the CHD mortality fall. These findings emphasize the complimentary value of primary prevention and evidence-based medical treatments in controlling coronary heart disease

Editor's Choice - Optimal Threshold for the Volume-Outcome Relationship After Open AAA Repair in the Endovascular Era : Analysis of the International Consortium of Vascular Registries

Objective: As open abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair (OAR) rates decline in the endovascular era, the endorsement of minimum volume thresholds for OAR is increasingly controversial, as this may affect credentialing and training. The purpose of this analysis was to identify an optimal centre volume threshold that is associated with the most significant mortality reduction after OAR, and to determine how this reflects contemporary practice. Methods: This was an observational study of OARs performed in 11 countries (2010 - 2016) within the International Consortium of Vascular Registry database (n = 178 302). The primary endpoint was post-operative in hospital mortality. Two different methodologies (area under the receiving operating curve optimisation and Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure) were used to determine the optimal centre volume threshold associated with the most significant mortality improvement. Results: In total, 154 912 (86.9%) intact and 23 390 (13.1%) ruptured AAAs were analysed. The majority (63.1%; n = 112 557) underwent endovascular repair (EVAR) (OAR 36.9%; n = 65 745). A significant inverse relationship between increasing centre volume and lower peri-operative mortality after intact and ruptured OAR was evident (p = 13 procedures/year volume threshold, with significant variation between nations (Germany 11%; Denmark 100%). Conclusion: An annual centre volume of 13 - 16 OARs per year is the optimal threshold associated with the greatest mortality risk reduction after treatment of intact AAA. However, in the current endovascular era, achieving this threshold requires significant re-organisation of OAR practice delivery in many countries, and would affect provision of non-elective aortic services. Low volume centres continuing to offer OAR should aim to achieve mortality results equivalent to the high volume institution benchmark, using validated data from quality registries to track outcomes.Peer reviewe

Vaccine-induced, but not natural immunity, against the Streptococcal inhibitor of complement protects against invasive disease

Highly pathogenic emm1 Streptococcus pyogenes strains secrete the multidomain Streptococcal inhibitor of complement (SIC) that binds and inactivates components of the innate immune response. We aimed to determine if naturally occurring or vaccine-induced antibodies to SIC are protective against invasive S. pyogenes infection. Immunisation with full-length SIC protected mice against systemic bacterial dissemination following intranasal or intramuscular infection with emm1 S. pyogenes. Vaccine-induced rabbit anti-SIC antibodies, but not naturally occurring human anti-SIC antibodies, enhanced bacterial clearance in an ex vivo whole-blood assay. SIC vaccination of both mice and rabbits resulted in antibody recognition of all domains of SIC, whereas naturally occurring human anti-SIC antibodies recognised the proline-rich region of SIC only. We, therefore, propose a model whereby natural infection with S. pyogenes generates non-protective antibodies against the proline-rich region of SIC, while vaccination with full-length SIC permits the development of protective antibodies against all SIC domains