Confidence intervals for a spatially generalized, continuous simulation flood frequency model for Great Britain

There is growing interest in the application of "continuous simulation'' conceptual rainfall-runoff models for flood frequency estimation as an adjunct to event-based or statistical design methodology. The approach has advantages that stem from the use of models with continuous water balance accounting. Conceptual rainfall-runoff models usually require calibration, which in turn requires gauged rainfall and flow data. One of the key challenges is therefore to develop ways of generalizing models for use at ungauged sites. Recent work has produced a prototype scheme for achieving this aim in Great Britain for two catchment models by relating model parameters to spatial catchment properties, such as soils, topography, and geology. In this paper we present an analysis of the uncertainty associated with one of the generalized models ( the "probability distributed model'') in terms of confidence intervals for simulations at test sites that are treated as if they were ungauged. This is done by fitting regression relationships between hydrological model parameters and catchment properties so as to estimate the parameters as distribution functions for the ungauged site case. Flood flow outputs are then simulated from the parameter distributions and used to construct approximate confidence intervals. Comparison with gauged data suggests that the generalized model may be tentatively accepted. Uncertainty in the modeled flood flows is often of a similar order to the uncertainty surrounding a more conventional statistical model, in this case a single-site generalized Pareto distribution fitted to the gauged data

System and Process for Providing Auxiliary Information for a Packet-Switched Network of Shared Nodes Using Dedicated Associative Store

A system and process for providing auxiliary information about a distributed network of shared nodes, at least a plurality of the nodes being adapted for receiving at least one type of ESP-(associative ephemeral store processing) packet. Available for access at each of the plurality of ESP-adapted nodes is a dedicated associative store wherein a value, if bound to a tag, is only accessible as a bound (tag, value) pair for a short time period, τ. Different types of packets are contemplated for routing through the ESP-capable plurality of nodes such as those arbitrarily identified herein as a ‘first’ and ‘second’ type: each first type packet has at least one field comprising an opcode identifying an instruction, and a tag; each second type packet has an opcode identifying an instruction an LOC field containing an identifier of a location for execution of an operand by the second packet instruction at any one of the ESP-capable plurality of nodes. In another aspect, each of the ESP-capable plurality of nodes has input and output port units and a centralized unit; an associative store may be dedicated to one or more of the port units as well as to the centralized location

The acute effects of cocoa flavanols on temporal and spatial attention

In this study, we investigated how the acute physiological effects of cocoa flavanols might result in specific cognitive changes, in particular in temporal and spatial attention. To this end, we pre-registered and implemented a randomized, double-blind, placebo- and baseline-controlled crossover design. A sample of 48 university students participated in the study and each of them completed the experimental tasks in four conditions (baseline, placebo, low dose, and high-dose flavanol), administered in separate sessions with a 1-week washout interval. A rapid serial visual presentation task was used to test flavanol effects on temporal attention and integration, and a visual search task was similarly employed to investigate spatial attention. Results indicated that cocoa flavanols improved visual search efficiency, reflected by reduced reaction time. However, cocoa flavanols did not facilitate temporal attention nor integration, suggesting Potential underlying mechanisms are discussed

Impact Factor: outdated artefact or stepping-stone to journal certification?

A review of Garfield's journal impact factor and its specific implementation as the Thomson Reuters Impact Factor reveals several weaknesses in this commonly-used indicator of journal standing. Key limitations include the mismatch between citing and cited documents, the deceptive display of three decimals that belies the real precision, and the absence of confidence intervals. These are minor issues that are easily amended and should be corrected, but more substantive improvements are needed. There are indications that the scientific community seeks and needs better certification of journal procedures to improve the quality of published science. Comprehensive certification of editorial and review procedures could help ensure adequate procedures to detect duplicate and fraudulent submissions.Comment: 25 pages, 12 figures, 6 table

Spatio-temporal variation in predation by urban domestic cats (Felis catus) and the acceptability of possible management actions in the UK

Urban domestic cat (Felis catus) populations can attain exceedingly high densities and are not limited by natural prey availability. This has generated concerns that they may negatively affect prey populations, leading to calls for management. We enlisted cat-owners to record prey returned home to estimate patterns of predation by free-roaming pets in different localities within the town of Reading, UK and questionnaire surveys were used to quantify attitudes to different possible management strategies. Prey return rates were highly variable: only 20% of cats returned ≥4 dead prey annually. Consequently, approximately 65% of owners received no prey in a given season, but this declined to 22% after eight seasons. The estimated mean predation rate was 18.3 prey cat−1 year−1 but this varied markedly both spatially and temporally: per capita predation rates declined with increasing cat density. Comparisons with estimates of the density of six common bird prey species indicated that cats killed numbers equivalent to adult density on c. 39% of occasions. Population modeling studies suggest that such predation rates could significantly reduce the size of local bird populations for common urban species. Conversely, most urban residents did not consider cat predation to be a significant problem. Collar-mounted anti-predation devices were the only management action acceptable to the majority of urban residents (65%), but were less acceptable to cat-owners because of perceived risks to their pets; only 24% of cats were fitted with such devices. Overall, cat predation did appear to be of sufficient magnitude to affect some prey populations, although further investigation of some key aspects of cat predation is warranted. Management of the predation behavior of urban cat populations in the UK is likely to be challenging and achieving this would require considerable engagement with cat owners

Mapping the stray domestic cat (Felis catus) population in New Zealand: Species distribution modelling with a climate change scenario and implications for protected areas

Species distribution models of stray cats were developed using two types of occurrence data: (i) a combined dataset of stray cats and cat colonies in Auckland and projected to the wider New Zealand area; and (ii) population density as an analogue for country-wide stray cat occurrence. These occurrence data, together with sets of environmental variables were used as input to the Maxent modelling tool to produce maps of suitability for the species. Environmental variables used in the models consist of current bioclimatic conditions, and a future climate scenario (RCP8.5 for year 2070 CCSM model). Commonly occurring bias in the modelling process due to latitude, the area for selecting background points in model evaluation, inherent spatial autocorrelation of occurrence points, and correlated bioclimatic variables were explicitly addressed. Results show that the North Island consistently provide more suitable areas for stray cats with increased suitability in a high emission climate change condition. Key protected areas at risk from the increased suitability to stray cats are also presented

The non-clonality of drug resistance in Beijing-genotype isolates of Mycobacterium tuberculosis from the Western Cape of South Africa

Background. The Beijing genotype of M. tuberculosis is a virulent strain that is disseminating worldwide and has a strong association with drug resistance. In the Western Cape of South Africa, epidemiological studies have identified the R220 cluster of the Beijing genotype as a major contributor to a recent outbreak of drug-resistant tuberculosis. Although the outbreak is considered to be due to clonal transmission, the relationship among drug resistant isolates has not yet been established. Results. To better understand the evolution of drug resistance among these strains, 14 drug-resistant clinical isolates of the Beijing genotype were sequenced by whole-genome sequencing, including eight from R220 and six from a more ancestral Beijing cluster, R86, for comparison. While each cluster shares a distinct resistance mutation for isoniazid, mapping of other drug-resistance mutations onto a phylogenetic tree constructed from single nucleotide polymorphisms shows that resistance mutations to many drugs have arisen multiple times independently within each cluster of isolates. Thus, drug resistance among these isolates appears to be acquired, not clonally derived. This observation suggests that, although the Beijing genotype as a whole might have selective advantages enabling its rapid dissemination, the XDR isolates are relatively less fit and do not propagate well. Although it has been hypothesized that the increased frequency of drug resistance in some Beijing lineages might be caused by a mutator phenotype, no significant shift in synonymous substitution patterns is observed in the genomes. Conclusion. While MDR-TB is spreading by transmission in the Western Cape, our data suggests that further drug resistance (i.e. XDR-TB) at this stage is acquired.Peer Reviewe

Ageing vision and falls: a review

Background: Falls are the leading cause of accidental injury and death among older adults. One of three adults over the age of 65 years falls annually. As the size of elderly population increases, falls become a major concern for public health and there is a pressing need to understand the causes of falls thoroughly. Main body of the abstract: While it is well documented that visual functions such as visual acuity, contrast sensitivity, and stereo acuity are correlated with fall risks, little attention has been paid to the relationship between falls and the ability of the visual system to perceive motion in the environment. The omission of visual motion perception in the literature is a critical gap because it is an essential function in maintaining balance. In the present article, we first review existing studies regarding visual risk factors for falls and the effect of ageing vision on falls. We then present a group of phenomena such as vection and sensory reweighting that provide information on how visual motion signals are used to maintain balance. Conclusion: We suggest that the current list of visual risk factors for falls should be elaborated by taking into account the relationship between visual motion perception and balance control

The impact of a standardised intramuscular sedation protocol for acute behavioural disturbance in the emergency department

Background: Acute behavioural disturbance (ABD) is an increasing problem in emergency departments. This study aimed to determine the impact of a structured intramuscular (IM) sedation protocol on the duration of ABD in the emergency department. Methods: A historical control study was undertaken comparing 58 patients who required physical restraint and parenteral sedation with the structured IM sedation protocol, to 73 historical controls treated predominantly by intravenous sedation, according to individual clinician preference. The primary outcome was the duration of the ABD defined as the time security staff were required. Secondary outcomes were the requirement for additional sedation, drug related-adverse effects and patient and staff injuries. Results: The median duration of the ABD in patients with the new sedation protocol was 21 minutes (IQR: 15 to 35 minutes; Range: 5 to 78 minutes) compared to a median duration of 30 minutes (IQR: 15 to 50 minutes; Range: 5 to 135 minutes) in the historical controls which was significantly different (p = 0.03). With IM sedation only 27 of 58 patients (47%; 95% CI: 34% to 60%) required further sedation compared to 64 of 73 historical controls (88%; 95%CI: 77% to 94%). There were six (10%) drug-related adverse events with the new IM protocol [oxygen desaturation (5), oxygen desaturation/airway obstruction (1)] compared to 10 (14%) in the historical controls [oxygen desaturation (5), hypoventilation (4) and aspiration (1)]. Injuries to staff occurred with three patients using the new sedation protocol and in seven of the historical controls. Two patients were injured during the new protocol and two of the historical controls. Conclusion: The use of a standardised IM sedation protocol was simple, more effective and as safe for management of ABD compared to predominantly intravenous sedation