Earthquake recurrence as a record breaking process

Extending the central concept of recurrence times for a point process to recurrent events in space-time allows us to characterize seismicity as a record breaking process using only spatiotemporal relations among events. Linking record breaking events with edges between nodes in a graph generates a complex dynamical network isolated from any length, time or magnitude scales set by the observer. For Southern California, the network of recurrences reveals new statistical features of seismicity with robust scaling laws. The rupture length and its scaling with magnitude emerges as a generic measure for distance between recurrent events. Further, the relative separations for subsequent records in space (or time) form a hierarchy with unexpected scaling properties

Network of recurrent events for the Olami-Feder-Christensen model

We numerically study the dynamics of a discrete spring-block model introduced by Olami, Feder and Christensen (OFC) to mimic earthquakes and investigate to which extent this simple model is able to reproduce the observed spatiotemporal clustering of seismicty. Following a recently proposed method to characterize such clustering by networks of recurrent events [Geophys. Res. Lett. {\bf 33}, L1304, 2006], we find that for synthetic catalogs generated by the OFC model these networks have many non-trivial statistical properties. This includes characteristic degree distributions -- very similar to what has been observed for real seismicity. There are, however, also significant differences between the OFC model and earthquake catalogs indicating that this simple model is insufficient to account for certain aspects of the spatiotemporal clustering of seismicity.Comment: 11 pages, 16 figure

Rapid convergence of time-averaged frequency in phase synchronized systems

Numerical and experimental evidence is presented to show that many phase synchronized systems of non-identical chaotic oscillators, where the chaotic state is reached through a period-doubling cascade, show rapid convergence of the time-averaged frequency. The speed of convergence toward the natural frequency scales as the inverse of the measurement period. The results also suggest an explanation for why such chaotic oscillators can be phase synchronized.Comment: 6 pages, 9 figure

Extreme value statistics and return intervals in long-range correlated uniform deviates

We study extremal statistics and return intervals in stationary long-range correlated sequences for which the underlying probability density function is bounded and uniform. The extremal statistics we consider e.g., maximum relative to minimum are such that the reference point from which the maximum is measured is itself a random quantity. We analytically calculate the limiting distributions for independent and identically distributed random variables, and use these as a reference point for correlated cases. The distributions are different from that of the maximum itself i.e., a Weibull distribution, reflecting the fact that the distribution of the reference point either dominates over or convolves with the distribution of the maximum. The functional form of the limiting distributions is unaffected by correlations, although the convergence is slower. We show that our findings can be directly generalized to a wide class of stochastic processes. We also analyze return interval distributions, and compare them to recent conjectures of their functional form

Networks of Recurrent Events, a Theory of Records, and an Application to Finding Causal Signatures in Seismicity

We propose a method to search for signs of causal structure in spatiotemporal data making minimal a priori assumptions about the underlying dynamics. To this end, we generalize the elementary concept of recurrence for a point process in time to recurrent events in space and time. An event is defined to be a recurrence of any previous event if it is closer to it in space than all the intervening events. As such, each sequence of recurrences for a given event is a record breaking process. This definition provides a strictly data driven technique to search for structure. Defining events to be nodes, and linking each event to its recurrences, generates a network of recurrent events. Significant deviations in properties of that network compared to networks arising from random processes allows one to infer attributes of the causal dynamics that generate observable correlations in the patterns. We derive analytically a number of properties for the network of recurrent events composed by a random process. We extend the theory of records to treat not only the variable where records happen, but also time as continuous. In this way, we construct a fully symmetric theory of records leading to a number of new results. Those analytic results are compared to the properties of a network synthesized from earthquakes in Southern California. Significant disparities from the ensemble of acausal networks that can be plausibly attributed to the causal structure of seismicity are: (1) Invariance of network statistics with the time span of the events considered, (2) Appearance of a fundamental length scale for recurrences, independent of the time span of the catalog, which is consistent with observations of the ``rupture length'', (3) Hierarchy in the distances and times of subsequent recurrences.Comment: 19 pages, 13 figure

Evolution of Structure in the Intergalactic Medium and the Nature of the Ly-alpha Forest

We have performed a detailed statistical study of the evolution of structure in a photoionized intergalactic medium (IGM) using analytical simulations to extend the calculation into the mildly non-linear density regime found to prevail at z = 3. Our work is based on a simple fundamental conjecture: that the probability distribution function of the density of baryonic diffuse matter in the universe is described by a lognormal (LN) random field. The LN field has several attractive features and follows plausibly from the assumption of initial linear Gaussian density and velocity fluctuations at arbitrarily early times. Starting with a suitably normalized power spectrum of primordial fluc- tuations in a universe dominated by cold dark matter (CDM), we compute the behavior of the baryonic matter, which moves slowly toward minima in the dark matter potential on scales larger than the Jeans length. We have computed two models that succeed in matching observations. One is a non-standard CDM model with Omega=1, h=0.5 and \Gamma=0.3, and the other is a low density flat model with a cosmological constant(LCDM), with Omega=0.4, Omega_Lambda=0.6 and h=.65. In both models, the variance of the density distribution function grows with time, reaching unity at about z=4, where the simulation yields spectra that closely resemble the Ly-alpha forest absorption seen in the spectra of high z quasars. The calculations also successfully predict the observed properties of the Ly-alpha forest clouds and their evolution from z=4 down to at least z=2, assuming a constant intensity for the metagalactic UV background over this redshift range. However, in our model the forest is not due to discrete clouds, but rather to fluctuations in a continuous intergalactic medium. (This is an abreviated abstract; the complete abstract is included with the manuscript.)Comment: Wrong Fig. 10 is corrected. Our custom made postscript is available at ftp://hut4.pha.jhu.edu/incoming/igm, or contact Arthur Davidsen ([email protected]) for nice hardcopies; accepted for publication in Ap

Simple model for 1/f noise

We present a simple stochastic mechanism which generates pulse trains exhibiting a power law distribution of the pulse intervals and a $1/f^\alpha$ power spectrum over several decades at low frequencies with $\alpha$ close to one. The essential ingredient of our model is a fluctuating threshold which performs a Brownian motion. Whenever an increasing potential $V(t)$ hits the threshold, $V(t)$ is reset to the origin and a pulse is emitted. We show that if $V(t)$ increases linearly in time, the pulse intervals can be approximated by a random walk with multiplicative noise. Our model agrees with recent experiments in neurobiology and explains the high interpulse interval variability and the occurrence of $1/f^\alpha$ noise observed in cortical neurons and earthquake data.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Evolution in random fitness landscapes: the infinite sites model

We consider the evolution of an asexually reproducing population in an uncorrelated random fitness landscape in the limit of infinite genome size, which implies that each mutation generates a new fitness value drawn from a probability distribution $g(w)$. This is the finite population version of Kingman's house of cards model [J.F.C. Kingman, \textit{J. Appl. Probab.} \textbf{15}, 1 (1978)]. In contrast to Kingman's work, the focus here is on unbounded distributions $g(w)$ which lead to an indefinite growth of the population fitness. The model is solved analytically in the limit of infinite population size $N \to \infty$ and simulated numerically for finite $N$. When the genome-wide mutation probability $U$ is small, the long time behavior of the model reduces to a point process of fixation events, which is referred to as a \textit{diluted record process} (DRP). The DRP is similar to the standard record process except that a new record candidate (a number that exceeds all previous entries in the sequence) is accepted only with a certain probability that depends on the values of the current record and the candidate. We develop a systematic analytic approximation scheme for the DRP. At finite $U$ the fitness frequency distribution of the population decomposes into a stationary part due to mutations and a traveling wave component due to selection, which is shown to imply a reduction of the mean fitness by a factor of $1-U$ compared to the $U \to 0$ limit.Comment: Dedicated to Thomas Nattermann on the occasion of his 60th birthday. Submitted to JSTAT. Error in Section 3.2 was correcte

Possibility between earthquake and explosion seismogram differentiation by discrete stochastic non-Markov processes and local Hurst exponent analysis

The basic purpose of the paper is to draw the attention of researchers to new possibilities of differentiation of similar signals having different nature. One of examples of such kind of signals is presented by seismograms containing recordings of earthquakes (EQ's) and technogenic explosions (TE's). We propose here a discrete stochastic model for possible solution of a problem of strong EQ's forecasting and differentiation of TE's from the weak EQ's. Theoretical analysis is performed by two independent methods: with the use of statistical theory of discrete non-Markov stochastic processes (Phys. Rev. E62,6178 (2000)) and the local Hurst exponent. Time recordings of seismic signals of the first four dynamic orthogonal collective variables, six various plane of phase portrait of four dimensional phase space of orthogonal variables and the local Hurst exponent have been calculated for the dynamic analysis of the earth states. The approaches, permitting to obtain an algorithm of strong EQ's forecasting and to differentiate TE's from weak EQ's, have been developed.Comment: REVTEX +12 ps and jpg figures. Accepted for publication in Phys. Rev. E, December 200

Comparative study of the two large flares from SGR1900+14 with the BeppoSAX Gamma-Ray Burst Monitor

We report on spectral and temporal results of the 40-700 keV observations, obtained with the Gamma-Ray Burst Monitor (GRBM) on board BeppoSAX, of the two large flares from the Soft Gamma-ray Repeater SGR1900+14 occurred on August 27, 1998 and April 18, 2001. From their intensity, fluence and duration, the first one was classified as "giant" and the second as "intermediate". The spectral results have been obtained with an improved response function of the GRBM. We find that the two events have similar spectral properties, but different temporal properties. The major difference concerns the time profiles of the light curves, whereas the lack of evidence in the 2001 flare for the erratic time variability found at high frequencies (10-1000 Hz) in the 1998 flare could be ascribed to lower counting statistics. We discuss these results in the light of the magnetar model proposed for SGR sources.Comment: 15 pages, 20 figures, accepted for publication in A&