Eliciting Dirichlet and Gaussian copula prior distributions for multinomial models

In this paper, we propose novel methods of quantifying expert opinion about prior distributions for multinomial models. Two different multivariate priors are elicited using median and quartile assessments of the multinomial probabilities. First, we start by eliciting a univariate beta distribution for the probability of each category. Then we elicit the hyperparameters of the Dirichlet distribution, as a tractable conjugate prior, from those of the univariate betas through various forms of reconciliation using least-squares techniques. However, a multivariate copula function will give a more flexible correlation structure between multinomial parameters if it is used as their multivariate prior distribution. So, second, we use beta marginal distributions to construct a Gaussian copula as a multivariate normal distribution function that binds these marginals and expresses the dependence structure between them. The proposed method elicits a positive-definite correlation matrix of this Gaussian copula. The two proposed methods are designed to be used through interactive graphical software written in Java

Preclinical characterization and target validation of the antimalarial pantothenamide MMV693183

Drug resistance and a dire lack of transmission-blocking antimalarials hamper malaria elimination. Here, we present the pantothenamide MMV693183 as a first-in-class acetyl-CoA synthetase (AcAS) inhibitor to enter preclinical development. Our studies demonstrate attractive drug-like properties and in vivo efficacy in a humanized mouse model of Plasmodium falciparum infection. The compound shows single digit nanomolar in vitro activity against P. falciparum and P. vivax clinical isolates, and potently blocks P. falciparum transmission to Anopheles mosquitoes. Genetic and biochemical studies identify AcAS as the target of the MMV693183-derived antimetabolite, CoA-MMV693183. Pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modelling predict that a single 30 mg oral dose is sufficient to cure a malaria infection in humans. Toxicology studies in rats indicate a > 30-fold safety margin in relation to the predicted human efficacious exposure. In conclusion, MMV693183 represents a promising candidate for further (pre)clinical development with a novel mode of action for treatment of malaria and blocking transmission

Trends of the Major Porin Gene (ompF) Evolution: Insight from the Genus Yersinia

OmpF is one of the major general porins of Enterobacteriaceae that belongs to the first line of bacterial defense and interactions with the biotic as well as abiotic environments. Porins are surface exposed and their structures strongly reflect the history of multiple interactions with the environmental challenges. Unfortunately, little is known on diversity of porin genes of Enterobacteriaceae and the genus Yersinia especially. We analyzed the sequences of the ompF gene from 73 Yersinia strains covering 14 known species. The phylogenetic analysis placed most of the Yersinia strains in the same line assigned by 16S rDNA-gyrB tree. Very high congruence in the tree topologies was observed for Y. enterocolitica, Y. kristensenii, Y. ruckeri, indicating that intragenic recombination in these species had no effect on the ompF gene. A significant level of intra- and interspecies recombination was found for Y. aleksiciae, Y. intermedia and Y. mollaretii. Our analysis shows that the ompF gene of Yersinia has evolved with nonrandom mutational rate under purifying selection. However, several surface loops in the OmpF porin contain positively selected sites, which very likely reflect adaptive diversification Yersinia to their ecological niches. To our knowledge, this is a first investigation of diversity of the porin gene covering the whole genus of the family Enterobacteriaceae. This study demonstrates that recombination and positive selection both contribute to evolution of ompF, but the relative contribution of these evolutionary forces are different among Yersinia species