Sequential inverse problems Bayesian principles and the\ud logistic map example

Bayesian statistics provides a general framework for solving inverse problems, but is not without interpretation and implementation problems. This paper discusses difficulties arising from the fact that forward models are always in error to some extent. Using a simple example based on the one-dimensional logistic map, we argue that, when implementation problems are minimal, the Bayesian framework is quite adequate. In this paper the Bayesian Filter is shown to be able to recover excellent state estimates in the perfect model scenario (PMS) and to distinguish the PMS from the imperfect model scenario (IMS). Through a quantitative comparison of the way in which the observations are assimilated in both the PMS and the IMS scenarios, we suggest that one can, sometimes, measure the degree of imperfection

Risk Mitigation through Diversified Farm Production Strategies: The Case in Northern Mozambique

Mozambique, like many other parts of the low-income world, faces perennial challenges with food security. With a rapidly growing population and arable land on the decline, sustainable agriculture is vital to managing the already depleted natural resources of Sub-Saharan Africa more effectively while increasing food security. Food security issues for subsistence farmers in most low-income countries are a product of endogenous (crop yields) and exogenous (currency fluctuations as many agricultural inputs are imported) factors. In Mozambique the value of the local currency, meticals, has decreased by approximately 50% since January 2015 compared to the U.S. dollar. While this makes exporting products out of Mozambique more attractive in a relative sense, it negatively effects those industries which rely on imported inputs such as animal feed and inorganic fertilizer. In response to this exogenous currency crisis, research was conducted in Nampula, Mozambique during the summer of 2016 on a method for implementing crop diversification to reduce the risk that accompanies the devaluation of the metical. This research was undertaken on a poultry operation which is heavily dependent on imported maize and soya. Similar to the market structure of the poultry industry in the United States, all birds are grown by individual out growers who typically also have small plots of land to farm. Objectives for the project included 1) perform on-site crop production evaluations, 2) determine profitability for various row crops, and 3) simulate alternative production practices to increase crop profitability. Of the crops grown (tomatoes, maize, and cabbage), maize required the least labor, lowest initial investment, and the highest probability of breaking even. This research concluded that if poultry producers in Mozambique who rely on imported feed grew maize simultaneously it would reduce the dependency on imported maize and reduce income variability associated with exogenous currency fluctuations. Implementing a program such as this could increase revenue streams as well as reduce variability, thereby enhancing regional food securit

True Riches

Luke 16:19-31

Optimal Multilateral Well Placement

The oil industry is often faced with the problem of finding the optimal location and trajectory for an oil well. Increasingly this includes the additional complication of optimising the design of a multilateral well. We present a new approach based on the theory of expensive function optimisation.\ud \ud The key idea is to replace the underlying expensive function (i.e. the simulator response) by a cheap approximation (i.e. an emulator). This enables one to apply existing optimisation techniques to the emulator. Our approach uses a radial basis function interpolant to the simulator response as the emulator. Note that the case of a Gaussian radial basis function is equivalent to the geostatistical method of Kriging and radial basis functions can be interpreted as a single-layer neural network. We use a stochastic model of the simulator response to adaptively refine the emulator and optimise it using a branch and bound global optimisation algorithm.\ud \ud To illustrate our approach we apply it to finding the optimal location and trajectory of a single multilateral well in a reservoir simulation model using the industry standard ECLIPSE simulator. We compare our results to existing approaches and show that our technique is comparable, if not superior, in performance to these approaches

A literacy initiative for the Camden Housing Authority Urban Revitalization Demonstration Plan

This report describes a literacy project targeting residents of the McGuire Gardens Public Housing Project in Camden, New Jersey. The site was selected because it was identified in the city's revitalization plan as one of extreme need. The purpose of the project is to develop 'functional literacy' among the housing development's residents. (Library-derived description)Farmer, M. L. (1998). A literacy initiative for the Camden Housing Authority Urban Revitalization Demonstration Plan. Retrieved from http://academicarchive.snhu.eduMaster of Science (M.S.)School of Community Economic Developmen

Risk Mitigation through Diversified Farm Production Strategies: The Case in Northern Mozambique

Mozambique, like many other parts of the low-income world, faces perennial challenges with food security. With a rapidly growing population and arable land on the decline, sustainable agriculture is vital to managing the already depleted natural resources of Sub-Saharan Africa more effectively while increasing food security. Food security issues for subsistence farmers in most low-income countries are a product of endogenous (crop yields) and exogenous (currency fluctuations as many agricultural inputs are imported) factors. In Mozambique the value of the local currency, meticals, has decreased by approximately 50% since January 2015 compared to the U.S. dollar. While this makes exporting products out of Mozambique more attractive in a relative sense, it negatively effects those industries which rely on imported inputs such as animal feed and inorganic fertilizer. In response to this exogenous currency crisis, research was conducted in Nampula, Mozambique during the summer of 2016 on a method for implementing crop diversification to reduce the risk that accompanies the devaluation of the metical. This research was undertaken on a poultry operation which is heavily dependent on imported maize and soya. Similar to the market structure of the poultry industry in the United States, all birds are grown by individual out growers who typically also have small plots of land to farm. Objectives for the project included 1) perform on-site crop production evaluations, 2) determine profitability for various row crops, and 3) simulate alternative production practices to increase crop profitability. Of the crops grown (tomatoes, maize, and cabbage), maize required the least labor, lowest initial investment, and the highest probability of breaking even. This research concluded that if poultry producers in Mozambique who rely on imported feed grew maize simultaneously it would reduce the dependency on imported maize and reduce income variability associated with exogenous currency fluctuations. Implementing a program such as this could increase revenue streams as well as reduce variability, thereby enhancing regional food securit