Decision theory and real estate development: a note on uncertainty

Real estate development appraisal is a quantification of future expectations. The appraisal model relies upon the valuer/developer having an understanding of the future in terms of the future marketability of the completed development and the future cost of development. In some cases the developer has some degree of control over the possible variation in the variables, as with the cost of construction through the choice of specification. However, other variables, such as the sale price of the final product, are totally dependent upon the vagaries of the market at the completion date. To try to address the risk of a different outcome to the one expected (modelled) the developer will often carry out a sensitivity analysis on the development. However, traditional sensitivity analysis has generally only looked at the best and worst scenarios and has focused on the anticipated or expected outcomes. This does not take into account uncertainty and the range of outcomes that can happen. A fuller analysis should include examination of the uncertainties in each of the components of the appraisal and account for the appropriate distributions of the variables. Similarly, as many of the variables in the model are not independent, the variables need to be correlated. This requires a standardised approach and we suggest that the use of a generic forecasting software package, in this case Crystal Ball, allows the analyst to work with an existing development appraisal model set up in Excel (or other spreadsheet) and to work with a predetermined set of probability distributions. Without a full knowledge of risk, developers are unable to determine the anticipated level of return that should be sought to compensate for the risk. This model allows the user a better understanding of the possible outcomes for the development. Ultimately the final decision will be made relative to current expectations and current business constraints, but by assessing the upside and downside risks more appropriately, the decision maker should be better placed to make a more informed and “better”

Judgments, forecasts and decisions: an analysis of fund managers over time

Decision theory is the study of models of judgement involved in, and leading to, deliberate and (usually) rational choice. In real estate investment there are normative models for the allocation of assets. These asset allocation models suggest an optimum allocation between the respective asset classes based on the investors’ judgements of performance and risk. Real estate is selected, as other assets, on the basis of some criteria, e.g. commonly its marginal contribution to the production of a mean variance efficient multi asset portfolio, subject to the investor’s objectives and capital rationing constraints. However, decisions are made relative to current expectations and current business constraints. Whilst a decision maker may believe in the required optimum exposure levels as dictated by an asset allocation model, the final decision may/will be influenced by factors outside the parameters of the mathematical model. This paper discusses investors' perceptions and attitudes toward real estate and highlights the important difference between theoretical exposure levels and pragmatic business considerations. It develops a model to identify “soft” parameters in decision making which will influence the optimal allocation for that asset class. This “soft” information may relate to behavioural issues such as the tendency to mirror competitors; a desire to meet weight of money objectives; a desire to retain the status quo and many other non-financial considerations. The paper aims to establish the place of property in multi asset portfolios in the UK and examine the asset allocation process in practice, with a view to understanding the decision making process and to look at investors’ perceptions based on an historic analysis of market expectation; a comparison with historic data and an analysis of actual performance

Women in Film: Treading Water but Fit for the Marathon

This book contains a series of research essays that investigate the global status of women in the media internationally. Lisa French’s chapter is an overview of the participation of women filmmakers in the West. She begins with an overview of women in film and television internationally, examines the reason that equality is important to global audiovisual industries and, offers a particular case study of women in Australian film and television industries. She argues that further research is urgently needed to collect data on the shrinking participation of women in film industries throughout the West, concluding with some observations about initiatives that may assist in improving the participation of women

Gender then, gender now: Surveying women's participation in Australian film and television industries

In the Australian audiovisual industries, women are a minority of the personnel in a large number of key creative roles and have considerably lower representation than in the Australian workforce generally. Despite the decline in their participation across several fields, the under-representation of women is not being addressed by these industries. Using findings from current research that includes a major survey of Victorian activity, this article engages with the urgent need for new approaches to thinking about the contribution and innovation of women: culturally, creatively and economically. Benchmarked against the last major study in 1992 (Cox and Laura), pivotal issues examined include barriers to progression, representation by job type and workplace/organizational cultures, along with a consideration of the current successes (relative to other areas) of women in television. Business, cultural and social arguments are made for the importance of gender equity, and an understanding of the contribution and value of women to these industries

Women in the Victorian film, television and related industries

This research project investigates the quality of the working lives of Victorian women in the film, television and related industries (including digital media and games). Through a survey of 135 people working in the Victorian audiovisual industries (conducted in November 2010 and collated finally in the report released in 2012), this research examined the participation of women in these industries and has gathered data on areas such as: issues effecting women, the progress of women in various sectors, training, career pathways, employment security and mobility

Through an Australian lens: explorations of India in Jane Campion's Holy Smoke!

In the half-light, a black man's hand strokes Ruth's neck. She flicks him away like an insect, oblivious to the sensual energy she radiates. This is how filmmaker Jane Campion introduces Ruth (Kate Winslet), the central character of her 1999 film, Holy Smoke! This opening scene, of Ruth on a bus, amidst the colour and vigour of a busy Indian city, can be read not only as representing an experience common to Western women abroad in South East Asia,1 but also as emphasizing that Ruth is a luminous and irresistible beauty

Loschmidt echoes in two-body random matrix ensembles

Fidelity decay is studied for quantum many-body systems with a dominant independent particle Hamiltonian resulting e.g. from a mean field theory with a weak two-body interaction. The diagonal terms of the interaction are included in the unperturbed Hamiltonian, while the off-diagonal terms constitute the perturbation that distorts the echo. We give the linear response solution for this problem in a random matrix framework. While the ensemble average shows no surprising behavior, we find that the typical ensemble member as represented by the median displays a very slow fidelity decay known as ``freeze''. Numerical calculations confirm this result and show, that the ground state even on average displays the freeze. This may contribute to explanation of the ``unreasonable'' success of mean field theories.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figures (6 eps files), RevTex; v2: slight modifications following referees' suggestion