Predicting the effects of climate change on water yield and forest production in the northeastern United States

Rapid and simultaneous changes in temperature, precipitation and the atmospheric concentration of CO2 are predicted to occur over the next century. Simple, well-validated models of ecosystem function are required to predict the effects of these changes. This paper describes an improved version of a forest carbon and water balance model (PnET-II) and the application of the model to predict stand- and regional-level effects of changes in temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration. PnET-II is a simple, generalized, monthly time-step model of water and carbon balances (gross and net) driven by nitrogen availability as expressed through foliar N concentration. Improvements from the original model include a complete carbon balance and improvements in the prediction of canopy phenology, as well as in the computation of canopy structure and photosynthesis. The model was parameterized and run for 4 forest/site combinations and validated against available data for water yield, gross and net carbon exchange and biomass production. The validation exercise suggests that the determination of actual water availability to stands and the occurrence or non-occurrence of soil-based water stress are critical to accurate modeling of forest net primary production (NPP) and net ecosystem production (NEP). The model was then run for the entire NewEngland/New York (USA) region using a 1 km resolution geographic information system. Predicted long-term NEP ranged from -85 to +275 g C m-2 yr-1 for the 4 forest/site combinations, and from -150 to 350 g C m-2 yr-1 for the region, with a regional average of 76 g C m-2 yr-1. A combination of increased temperature (+6*C), decreased precipitation (-15%) and increased water use efficiency (2x, due to doubling of CO2) resulted generally in increases in NPP and decreases in water yield over the region

Computing Nash Equilibrium in Wireless Ad Hoc Networks: A Simulation-Based Approach

This paper studies the problem of computing Nash equilibrium in wireless networks modeled by Weighted Timed Automata. Such formalism comes together with a logic that can be used to describe complex features such as timed energy constraints. Our contribution is a method for solving this problem using Statistical Model Checking. The method has been implemented in UPPAAL model checker and has been applied to the analysis of Aloha CSMA/CD and IEEE 802.15.4 CSMA/CA protocols.Comment: In Proceedings IWIGP 2012, arXiv:1202.422

Political Leadership and Global Governance: Structural Power Versus Custodial Stewardship

This article examines the role of political leadership within the realm of global governance. Drawing upon relevant theories of political agency, particular attention is given to addressing the relationship between leadership and collective action. A two-level analysis of institution building in relation to maritime security and economic trade and investment reveals both strengths and weaknesses in practice. A review of the Law of the Sea Convention and the Multilateral Investment Agreement provides a salutary reminder that material power does not translate easily into dominating the rules of international conduct. The cases of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum and the Trans-Pacific Partnership further highlight the importance of mixed sources of political leadership in responding to economic challenges at the regional level. The policy implication for both the United States and China is that taking the lead in Global Governance, either jointly or multilaterally, will require a renewed focus upon custodial stewardship that aims to realign interests with long-term goals

AMI observations of Lynds Dark Nebulae: further evidence for anomalous cm-wave emission

Observations at 14.2 to 17.9 GHz made with the AMI Small Array towards fourteen Lynds Dark Nebulae with a resolution of 2' are reported. These sources are selected from the SCUBA observations of Visser et al. (2001) as small angular diameter clouds well matched to the synthesized beam of the AMI Small Array. Comparison of the AMI observations with radio observations at lower frequencies with matched uv-plane coverage is made, in order to search for any anomalous excess emission which can be attributed to spinning dust. Possible emission from spinning dust is identified as a source within a 2' radius of the Scuba position of the Lynds dark nebula, exhibiting an excess with respect to lower frequency radio emission. We find five sources which show a possible spinning dust component in their spectra. These sources have rising spectral indices in the frequency range 14.2--17.9 GHz. Of these five one has already been reported, L1111, we report one new definite detection, L675, and three new probable detections (L944, L1103 and L1246). The relative certainty of these detections is assessed on the basis of three criteria: the extent of the emission, the coincidence of the emission with the Scuba position and the likelihood of alternative explanations for the excess. Extended microwave emission makes the likelihood of the anomalous emission arising as a consequence of a radio counterpart to a protostar or a proto-planetary disk unlikely. We use a 2' radius in order to be consistent with the IRAS identifications of dark nebulae (Parker 1988), and our third criterion is used in the case of L1103 where a high flux density at 850 microns relative to the FIR data suggests a more complicated emission spectrum.Comment: submitted MNRA

Criteria for the diagnosis of corticobasal degeneration

Current criteria for the clinical diagnosis of pathologically confirmed corticobasal degeneration (CBD) no longer reflect the expanding understanding of this disease and its clinicopathologic correlations. An international consortium of behavioral neurology, neuropsychology, and movement disorders specialists developed new criteria based on consensus and a systematic literature review. Clinical diagnoses (early or late) were identified for 267 nonoverlapping pathologically confirmed CBD cases from published reports and brain banks. Combined with consensus, 4 CBD phenotypes emerged: corticobasal syndrome (CBS), frontal behavioral-spatial syndrome (FBS), nonfluent/agrammatic variant of primary progressive aphasia (naPPA), and progressive supranuclear palsy syndrome (PSPS). Clinical features of CBD cases were extracted from descriptions of 209 brain bank and published patients, providing a comprehensive description of CBD and correcting common misconceptions. Clinical CBD phenotypes and features were combined to create 2 sets of criteria: more specific clinical research criteria for probable CBD and broader criteria for possible CBD that are more inclusive but have a higher chance to detect other tau-based pathologies. Probable CBD criteria require insidious onset and gradual progression for at least 1 year, age at onset ≥50 years, no similar family history or known tau mutations, and a clinical phenotype of probable CBS or either FBS or naPPA with at least 1 CBS feature. The possible CBD category uses similar criteria but has no restrictions on age or family history, allows tau mutations, permits less rigorous phenotype fulfillment, and includes a PSPS phenotype. Future validation and refinement of the proposed criteria are needed

Reconstructing Roma History from Genome-Wide Data

The Roma people, living throughout Europe and West Asia, are a diverse population linked by the Romani language and culture. Previous linguistic and genetic studies have suggested that the Roma migrated into Europe from South Asia about 1,000–1,500 years ago. Genetic inferences about Roma history have mostly focused on the Y chromosome and mitochondrial DNA. To explore what additional information can be learned from genome-wide data, we analyzed data from six Roma groups that we genotyped at hundreds of thousands of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). We estimate that the Roma harbor about 80% West Eurasian ancestry–derived from a combination of European and South Asian sources–and that the date of admixture of South Asian and European ancestry was about 850 years before present. We provide evidence for Eastern Europe being a major source of European ancestry, and North-west India being a major source of the South Asian ancestry in the Roma. By computing allele sharing as a measure of linkage disequilibrium, we estimate that the migration of Roma out of the Indian subcontinent was accompanied by a severe founder event, which appears to have been followed by a major demographic expansion after the arrival in Europe.Országos Tudományos Kutatási Alapprogramok (OTKA K 103983)Országos Tudományos Kutatási Alapprogramok (OTKA 73430)National Science Foundation (U.S.) (HOMINID grant 1032255)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (grant GM100233

Canopy nitrogen, carbon assimilation, and albedo in temperate and boreal forests: Functional relations and potential climate feedbacks

The availability of nitrogen represents a key constraint on carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystems, and it is largely in this capacity that the role of N in the Earth\u27s climate system has been considered. Despite this, few studies have included continuous variation in plant N status as a driver of broad-scale carbon cycle analyses. This is partly because of uncertainties in how leaf-level physiological relationships scale to whole ecosystems and because methods for regional to continental detection of plant N concentrations have yet to be developed. Here, we show that ecosystem CO2 uptake capacity in temperate and boreal forests scales directly with whole-canopy N concentrations, mirroring a leaf-level trend that has been observed for woody plants worldwide. We further show that both CO2 uptake capacity and canopy N concentration are strongly and positively correlated with shortwave surface albedo. These results suggest that N plays an additional, and overlooked, role in the climate system via its influence on vegetation reflectivity and shortwave surface energy exchange. We also demonstrate that much of the spatial variation in canopy N can be detected by using broad-band satellite sensors, offering a means through which these findings can be applied toward improved application of coupled carbon cycle–climate models

Massive migration from the steppe is a source for Indo-European languages in Europe

We generated genome-wide data from 69 Europeans who lived between 8,000-3,000 years ago by enriching ancient DNA libraries for a target set of almost four hundred thousand polymorphisms. Enrichment of these positions decreases the sequencing required for genome-wide ancient DNA analysis by a median of around 250-fold, allowing us to study an order of magnitude more individuals than previous studies and to obtain new insights about the past. We show that the populations of western and far eastern Europe followed opposite trajectories between 8,000-5,000 years ago. At the beginning of the Neolithic period in Europe, ~8,000-7,000 years ago, closely related groups of early farmers appeared in Germany, Hungary, and Spain, different from indigenous hunter-gatherers, whereas Russia was inhabited by a distinctive population of hunter-gatherers with high affinity to a ~24,000 year old Siberian6 . By ~6,000-5,000 years ago, a resurgence of hunter-gatherer ancestry had occurred throughout much of Europe, but in Russia, the Yamnaya steppe herders of this time were descended not only from the preceding eastern European hunter-gatherers, but from a population of Near Eastern ancestry. Western and Eastern Europe came into contact ~4,500 years ago, as the Late Neolithic Corded Ware people from Germany traced ~3/4 of their ancestry to the Yamnaya, documenting a massive migration into the heartland of Europe from its eastern periphery. This steppe ancestry persisted in all sampled central Europeans until at least ~3,000 years ago, and is ubiquitous in present-day Europeans. These results provide support for the theory of a steppe origin of at least some of the Indo-European languages of Europe

Defects in Chiral Columnar Phases: Tilt Grain Boundaries and Iterated Moire Maps

Biomolecules are often very long with a definite chirality. DNA, xanthan and poly-gamma-benzyl-glutamate (PBLG) can all form columnar crystalline phases. The chirality, however, competes with the tendency for crystalline order. For chiral polymers, there are two sorts of chirality: the first describes the usual cholesteric-like twist of the local director around a pitch axis, while the second favors the rotation of the local bond-orientational order and leads to a braiding of the polymers along an average direction. In the former case chirality can be manifested in a tilt grain boundary phase (TGB) analogous to the Renn-Lubensky phase of smectic-A liquid crystals. In the latter case we are led to a new "moire" state with twisted bond order. In the moire state polymers are simultaneously entangled, crystalline, and aligned, on average, in a common direction. In the moire state polymers are simultaneously entangled, crystalline, and aligned, on average, in a common direction. In this case the polymer trajectories in the plane perpendicular to their average direction are described by iterated moire maps of remarkable complexity, reminiscent of dynamical systems.Comment: plain TeX, (33 pages), 17 figures, some uufiled and included, the remaining available at ftp://ftp.sns.ias.edu/pub/kamien/ or by request to [email protected]