Russian population reproduction: challenges, trends, factors and possible results by 2024

The article assesses the probability of fulfilling the tasks set by the President of the Russian Federation in the May 2018 Decree in the field of population reproduction. Each of the tasks outlines the current situation, current trends and the most likely results. Factors that contribute to or counteract solutions to the designated problems are identified. In particular, increase or even preservation of the number of births will be hindered by constant reduction since 2015 in the number of women of active reproductive age (25-39 years), who account for 4/5 of all births [1]. Their number will reduce from 17.9 million in 2015 to 15.0 million in 2024, and up to 12.0 million in 2030 [1]. Reduction in deaths from circulatory diseases and neoplasm will be prevented by: the tendency of population ageing; persistence and impossibility of rapid eradicating bad habits, such as smoking, regular excessive drinking; poor quality of food and alcohol, etc. In addition, in the future, with increase in the life expectancy (LE) in Russia, those, who have been cured of diseases related to other major causes of death, eventually will start dying from circulatory diseases or oncology. It is these diseases that are the leading causes of death in countries with high LE. There are made the following conclusions: it will be actually impossible to achieve the goal of “increasing the population of the country” (set in the Decree) only by reproductive means in the near future in Russia. To solve Russia's general demographic problems (ensuring a positive overall population growth; optimizing the placement of the population on its territory not only in the economic, but also in the geopolitical interests of the state; redemption of the structural demographic wave volatility; etc.), it is necessary to follow coordinated reproduction and migration routes.</jats:p

Depopulation in the regions of Russia by the beginning of 2020

The article summarizes the natural increase / decrease in the population of the regions and macroregions of the Russian Federation for 1992-2019. Depopulation is a steady natural population decline, it's characteristic of most European territories (countries or parts thereof), whose population was heavily affected in World War II. This applies to both sides of the conflict — and fascist Germany (as well as militaristic Asian Japan), on the one hand; and the territories of modern Poland, the Republic of Belarus, Ukraine, the European part of the Russian Federation, parts of the former Yugoslavia, on the other hand. As a result, since the 1970s the population of these territories began to enter a period of depopulation, the excess of mortality over fertility. This happened as a result of a downward demographic wave, the so-called «first echo of the Second World War», as well as due to global trends of declining birth rates in the entire developed and rapidly developing world. In general, over the 28 years of the post-Soviet period from the beginning of 1992 to the beginning of2020, depopulation covered all European regions of Russia with the exception of 5 republics of the North Caucasus and the Republic of Kalmykia. A somewhat different picture was observed beyond the Ural Range. Here, the depopulation in most large industrial regions was primarily due to the post-Soviet migration outflow of the population to the European part of the country — to the capital regions and plains of Southern Russia with a favorable climate. Positive natural growth was only in the oil and gas bearing Tyumen oblast, the Republic of Yakutia (Sakha), Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, as well as in the republics of Southern Siberia, whose indigenous population professes Buddhism. The article presents an analysis for each of the typical groups of Russian regions, provides statistics for 28 years of the demographic (reproductive) development of territories, substantiates conclusions, among which the main one is the following. The decrease in the volume of current and upcoming demographic human losses in Russia depends on the consistency, scientific justification, efficiency, effectiveness and selectivity of the country's demographic policy.</jats:p

THE RESULTS OF THE INTERREGIONAL POPULATION EXCHANGE IN RUSSIA FOR 1993-2019

The article examines the components of the balance of interregional migration of the Russian population for 27 post-Soviet years, from 1993 to 2019. The main macro-regions of Russia and the results of their interregional migration development for the period are being investigated. Trends and patterns are revealed. The first of them is a continuation of the super-concentration of the population in the first five regions — interregional migration recipients of the country (Moscow, Moscow region, St. Petersburg, Leningrad region and Krasnodar region) due, first of all, interregional migration. The latter as a whole for the period ranged from 3/4 to 4/5 of their migration growth. The balance of population placement in Russia continues to break down. All this is happening under the influence of market mechanisms and does not stop, but, on the contrary, is amplified in the 21st century. The steps of the authorities in this area remain not effective enough. The first five regions are fueled by migration through the country's most important territories, such as Siberia, the Far East and the European North, as well as at the expense of most other territories. Perhaps the only positive development in inter-regional migration in recent years is the increase in the outflow of predominantly rural populations from the overpopulated republics of the North Caucasus.</jats:p

Demographic Development of Russia in Geopolitical Coordinates of the XX – Early XXI Century

The article shows that due to the fact that Russia has the largest territory among the rest of the world, the richest natural resources, making it a self-sufficient, advantageous geographical position, as well as a kind of history of the creation and development of the state, in the past, and still causes hostile attitude to it a number of states. Thanks to sufficient human potential, Russia, constituting the core of a state united with other peoples in pre-revolutionary and Soviet times, was able to defend its homeland, even from such an enemy as Nazi Germany. The increase in the population of Russia has always been the most important factor in ensuring the security of the state. The paper provides a detailed description of the demographic development of Russia, both as part of the Soviet Union and as an independent state. The dynamics of the population of Russia is considered, on the one hand, in the group of countries with a predominance of the Slavic ethnos, and on the other hand, it is compared with the demographic dynamics of the English-speaking group of countries.</jats:p

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE BORDER REGIONS OF RUSSIA AND BELARUS IN THE POST-SOVIET PERIOD

The article is devoted to the consideration of historical features that bring together the demographic development of the Gomel, Mogilev and Vitebsk regions from the Belarusian side and the Bryansk, Smolensk and Pskov regions from the Russian side, characterizes their migration interaction and its impact on the national composition of the population, as well as the specificity of the reproduction processes that thirty years in these six regions. The paper shows that although the fate of these regions is largely similar, nevertheless, in the Russian regions bordering on Belarus, the demographic dynamics turned out to be worse than in the Belarusian regions bordering on Russia. In the post-Soviet three decades, the population dynamics in the Belarusian and Russian border regions began to level out, both there and there, which entirely depended on the natural population decline. At the same time, the demographic situation in the border regions began to differ more from the average indicators for the countries, which is evident from the dynamics of the life expectancy of the population. The article also provides data on the number of Russians living in the border regions of Belarus and Belarusians living on the Russian side, which testify to the preservation of the previous ethnic proportions in the population of these regions.</jats:p