Partitioning Complexity in Air Traffic Management Task

Cognitive complexity is a term that appears frequently in air traffic control (ATC) research literature, yet there is little principled investigation of the potential sources of cognitive complexity. Three distinctly different sources of cognitive complexity are proposed which are environmental, organizational, and display. Two experiments were conducted to explore whether or not these proposed components of complexity could be effectively partitioned, measured, and compared. The findings demonstrate that sources of complexity can be decomposed and measured and furthermore, the use of color in displays, a display design intervention meant to reduce environmental complexity, can actually contribute to it.This research was sponsored by the Civil Aerospace Medical Institute

Anti-persistence in the global temperature anomaly field

In this study, low-frequency variations in temperature anomaly are investigated by mapping temperature anomaly records onto random walks. We show evidence that global overturns in trends of temperature anomalies occur on decadal time-scales as part of the natural variability of the climate system. Paleoclimatic summer records in Europe and New-Zealand provide further support for these findings as they indicate that anti-persistence of temperature anomalies on decadal time-scale have occurred in the last 226 yrs. Atmospheric processes in the subtropics and mid-latitudes of the SH and interactions with the Southern Oceans seem to play an important role to moderate global variations of temperature on decadal time-scales

Node-weighted measures for complex networks with spatially embedded, sampled, or differently sized nodes

When network and graph theory are used in the study of complex systems, a typically finite set of nodes of the network under consideration is frequently either explicitly or implicitly considered representative of a much larger finite or infinite region or set of objects of interest. The selection procedure, e.g., formation of a subset or some kind of discretization or aggregation, typically results in individual nodes of the studied network representing quite differently sized parts of the domain of interest. This heterogeneity may induce substantial bias and artifacts in derived network statistics. To avoid this bias, we propose an axiomatic scheme based on the idea of node splitting invariance to derive consistently weighted variants of various commonly used statistical network measures. The practical relevance and applicability of our approach is demonstrated for a number of example networks from different fields of research, and is shown to be of fundamental importance in particular in the study of spatially embedded functional networks derived from time series as studied in, e.g., neuroscience and climatology.Comment: 21 pages, 13 figure

Exact solutions to chaotic and stochastic systems

We investigate functions that are exact solutions to chaotic dynamical systems. A generalization of these functions can produce truly random numbers. For the first time, we present solutions to random maps. This allows us to check, analytically, some recent results about the complexity of random dynamical systems. We confirm the result that a negative Lyapunov exponent does not imply predictability in random systems. We test the effectiveness of forecasting methods in distinguishing between chaotic and random time-series. Using the explicit random functions, we can give explicit analytical formulas for the output signal in some systems with stochastic resonance. We study the influence of chaos on the stochastic resonance. We show, theoretically, the existence of a new type of solitonic stochastic resonance, where the shape of the kink is crucial. Using our models we can predict specific patterns in the output signal of stochastic resonance systems.Comment: 31 pages, 18 figures (.eps). To appear in Chaos, March 200

Languages cool as they expand: Allometric scaling and the decreasing need for new words

We analyze the occurrence frequencies of over 15 million words recorded in millions of books published during the past two centuries in seven different languages. For all languages and chronological subsets of the data we confirm that two scaling regimes characterize the word frequency distributions, with only the more common words obeying the classic Zipf law. Using corpora of unprecedented size, we test the allometric scaling relation between the corpus size and the vocabulary size of growing languages to demonstrate a decreasing marginal need for new words, a feature that is likely related to the underlying correlations between words. We calculate the annual growth fluctuations of word use which has a decreasing trend as the corpus size increases, indicating a slowdown in linguistic evolution following language expansion. This ‘‘cooling pattern’’ forms the basis of a third statistical regularity, which unlike the Zipf and the Heaps law, is dynamical in nature

Local Difference Measures between Complex Networks for Dynamical System Model Evaluation

Acknowledgments We thank Reik V. Donner for inspiring suggestions that initialized the work presented herein. Jan H. Feldhoff is credited for providing us with the STARS simulation data and for his contributions to fruitful discussions. Comments by the anonymous reviewers are gratefully acknowledged as they led to substantial improvements of the manuscript.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Complex networks for climate model evaluation with application to statistical versus dynamical modeling of South American climate

Acknowledgments: This paper was developed within the scope of the IRTG 1740/TRP 2011/50151-0, funded by the DFG/FAPESP. Furthermore, this work has been financially supported by the Leibniz Society (project ECONS), and the Stordalen Foundation (JFD). For certain calculations, the software packages pyunicorn (Donges et al. 2013a) and igraph (Csa´rdi and Nepusz 2006) were used. The authors would like to thank Manoel F. Cardoso, Niklas Boers, and the reviewers for helpful comments on the manuscript. Open Access: This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits any use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and the source are credited.Peer reviewedPostprin

Nothing Lasts Forever: Environmental Discourses on the Collapse of Past Societies

The study of the collapse of past societies raises many questions for the theory and practice of archaeology. Interest in collapse extends as well into the natural sciences and environmental and sustainability policy. Despite a range of approaches to collapse, the predominant paradigm is environmental collapse, which I argue obscures recognition of the dynamic role of social processes that lie at the heart of human communities. These environmental discourses, together with confusion over terminology and the concepts of collapse, have created widespread aporia about collapse and resulted in the creation of mixed messages about complex historical and social processes

Estimating the Fractal Dimension, K_2-entropy, and the Predictability of the Atmosphere

The series of mean daily temperature of air recorded over a period of 215 years is used for analysing the dimensionality and the predictability of the atmospheric system. The total number of data points of the series is 78527. Other 37 versions of the original series are generated, including ``seasonally adjusted'' data, a smoothed series, series without annual course, etc. Modified methods of Grassberger and Procaccia are applied. A procedure for selection of the ``meaningful'' scaling region is proposed. Several scaling regions are revealed in the ln C(r) versus ln r diagram. The first one in the range of larger ln r has a gradual slope and the second one in the range of intermediate ln r has a fast slope. Other two regions are settled in the range of small ln r. The results lead us to claim that the series arises from the activity of at least two subsystems. The first subsystem is low-dimensional (d_f=1.6) and it possesses the potential predictability of several weeks. We suggest that this subsystem is connected with seasonal variability of weather. The second subsystem is high-dimensional (d_f>17) and its error-doubling time is about 4-7 days. It is found that the predictability differs in dependence on season. The predictability time for summer, winter and the entire year (T_2 approx. 4.7 days) is longer than for transition-seasons (T_2 approx. 4.0 days for spring, T_2 approx. 3.6 days for autumn). The role of random noise and the number of data points are discussed. It is shown that a 15-year-long daily temperature series is not sufficient for reliable estimations based on Grassberger and Procaccia algorithms.Comment: 27 pages (LaTex version 2.09) and 15 figures as .ps files, e-mail: [email protected]