Dispute Settlement at the WTO: Impacts of a No Deal in the US-Brazil Cotton Dispute

On the day before Brazil was to start imposing retaliatory sanctions against the US in the WTO dispute settlement case regarding unfair domestic and export upland cotton subsidies, the parties have reached a preliminary concession aimed at settling this 8-year-long trade dispute. In this paper, we explore the economy wide impacts of a no deal with specific emphasis on intellectual property retaliation in a computable general equilibrium framework. As awarded by a WTO dispute settlement panel, Brazil would have been entitled to $591 million in retaliatory sanctions in goods sectors and$238 million in intellectual property sanctions. We find that retaliation by Brazil would have led to welfare gains for all countries except the US. Most importantly however, had Brazil not been allowed to retaliate in the form of suspension of intellectual property rights, the impact of trade retaliation alone would have been negative for both Brazil and the US, a case of shooting oneself in the foot to shoot at the other person’s foot.dispute settlement, WTO, intellectual property, computable general equilibrium, International Relations/Trade, C68, F13, Q17,

Economic Analysis of U.S. Immigration Reforms

In January 2004, President George Bush proposed the creation of a temporary worker program to allow more migrant workers to enter the US legally. This new temporary worker program would be open to undocumented workers in the US, as well as to prospective migrants currently residing abroad. The program would temporarily allow immigrants to fill jobs that, according to employers, would otherwise go unfilled at the current wage. The US Congress vetoed the presidential proposal, however, and requested a stricter enforcement of immigration law and the consequent deportation of undocumented immigrants. This study analyzes the economic effects of these immigration reforms on the US economy using an applied global general equilibrium model of migration. In this paper the global trade and migration model (GMig2) developed by Walmsley, Winters and Ahmed (2007) is modified to include a third labor category – undocumented unskilled – to reflect estimates of undocumented workers residing in the United States. The model is then used to analyze the impacts of two policy scenarios on the US economy: first, the deportation of undocumented workers currently residing in the US; and second, the legalization of undocumented agricultural workers. The first scenario is implemented through a decline in the number of undocumented workers residing in the US to zero, and a corresponding increase in the number of workers in Mexico. The second scenario is achieved by allowing undocumented workers to obtain legal status, thereby increasing their wages and productivity. We find that the deportation of undocumented workers causes a considerable loss to the US economy in terms of real GDP. Legalization of Mexican undocumented immigrants, on the other hand, is found to increase US real GDP. Hence the paper demonstrates there are clear advantages to the US economy of implementing proposals that both allow migrant workers to remain in the United States and increase the workers ability to participate freely in the US labor force as legal residents.US Undocumented Workers, Applied General Equilibrium, Political Economy,

Where on earth is everybody ? the evolution of global bilateral migration 1960-2000

Global matrices of bilateral migrant stocks spanning 1960–2000 are presented, disaggregated by gender and based primarily on the foreign-born definition of migrants. More than one thousand census and population register records are combined to construct decennial matrices corresponding to the five census rounds between 1960 and 2000. For the first time, a comprehensive picture of bilateral global migration over the second half of the 20th century emerges. The data reveal that the global migrant stock increased from 92 million in 1960 to 165 million in 2000. Quantitatively, migration between developing countries dominates, constituting half of all international migration in 2000. When the partition of India and the dissolution of the Soviet Union are accounted for, migration between developing countries is remarkably stable over the period. Migration from developing to developed countries is the fastest growing component of international migration in both absolute and relative terms. The United States has remained the most important migrant destination in the world, home to one fifth of the world’s migrants and the top destination for migrants from some 60 sending countries. Migration to Western Europe has come largely from elsewhere in Europe. The oil-rich Persian Gulf countries emerge as important destinations for migrants from the Middle East and North Africa and South and Southeast Asia. Finally, although the global migrant stock is predominantly male, the proportion of female migrants increased noticeably between 1960 and 2000. The number of women rose in every region except South Asia.Population Policies,Gender and Development,International Migration,Human Migrations&Resettlements,Voluntary and Involuntary Resettlement

Interactions between unidirectional quantized vortex rings

We have used the vortex filament method to numerically investigate the interactions between pairs of quantized vortex rings that are initially traveling in the same direction but with their axes offset by a variable impact parameter. The interaction of two circular rings of comparable radii produce outcomes that can be categorized into four regimes, dependent only on the impact parameter; the two rings can either miss each other on the inside or outside, or they can reconnect leading to final states consisting of either one or two deformed rings. The fraction of of energy went into ring deformations and the transverse component of velocity of the rings are analyzed for each regime. We find that rings of very similar radius only reconnect for a very narrow range of the impact parameter, much smaller than would be expected from geometrical cross-section alone. In contrast, when the radii of the rings are very different, the range of impact parameters producing a reconnection is close to the geometrical value. A second type of interaction considered is the collision of circular rings with a highly deformed ring. This type of interaction appears to be a productive mechanism for creating small vortex rings. The simulations are discussed in the context of experiments on colliding vortex rings and quantum turbulence in superfluid helium in the zero temperature limit

Quantifying international migration : a database of bilateral migrant stocks

This paper introduces four versions of an international bilateral migration stock database for 226 by 226 countries and territories. The first three versions each consist of two matrices, the first containing migrants defined by country of birth, that is, the foreign-born population; the second, by nationality, that is, the foreign population. Wherever possible, the information is collected from the 2000 round of censuses, though older data are included where this information was unavailable. The first version of the matrices contains as much data as could be collated at the time of writing but also contains gaps. The later versions progressively use a variety of techniques to estimate the missing data. The final matrix, comprising only the foreign-born, attempts to reconcile all of the available information to provide the researcher with a single and complete matrix of international bilateral migrant stocks. The final section of the paper describes some of the patterns evident in the database. For example, immigration to the United States is dominated by Latin America, whereas Western European immigration draws heavily on Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Mediterranean region. Over one-third of world migration is from developing to industrial countries and about a quarter between developing countries. Intra-developed country and intra-FSU (former Soviet Union) flows each account for about 15 percent of the total. Over half of migration is between countries with linguistic ties. Africa accounts for 8 percent of Western Europe's immigration and much less of that to other rich regions.Population Policies,International Migration,Human Migrations&Resettlements,Voluntary and Involuntary Resettlement,Statistical&Mathematical Sciences

Characterization of Infrared Dark Clouds -- NH3_3 Observations of an Absorption-contrast Selected IRDC Sample

Despite increasing research in massive star formation, little is known about its earliest stages. Infrared Dark Clouds (IRDCs) are cold, dense and massive enough to harbour the sites of future high-mass star formation. But up to now, mainly small samples have been observed and analysed. To understand the physical conditions during the early stages of high-mass star formation, it is necessary to learn more about the physical conditions and stability in relatively unevolved IRDCs. Thus, for characterising IRDCs studies of large samples are needed. We investigate a complete sample of 218 northern hemisphere high-contrast IRDCs using the ammonia (1,1)- and (2,2)-inversion transitions. We detected ammonia (1,1)-inversion transition lines in 109 of our IRDC candidates. Using the data we were able to study the physical conditions within the star-forming regions statistically. We compared them with the conditions in more evolved regions which have been observed in the same fashion as our sample sources. Our results show that IRDCs have, on average, rotation temperatures of 15 K, are turbulent (with line width FWHMs around 2 km s$^{-1}$), have ammonia column densities on the order of $10^{14}$ cm$^{-2}$ and molecular hydrogen column densities on the order of $10^{22}$ cm$^{-2}$. Their virial masses are between 100 and a few 1000 M$_\odot$. The comparison of bulk kinetic and potential energies indicate that the sources are close to virial equilibrium. IRDCs are on average cooler and less turbulent than a comparison sample of high-mass protostellar objects, and have lower ammonia column densities. Virial parameters indicate that the majority of IRDCs are currently stable, but are expected to collapse in the future.Comment: 21 pages, 11 figures, 7 tables. Paper accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysic

Molecular ions in L1544. I. Kinematics

We have mapped the dense dark core L1544 in H13CO+(1-0), DCO+(2-1), DCO+(3-2), N2H+(1-0), NTH+(3-2), N2D+(2-1), N2D+(3-2), C18O(1-0), and C17O(1-0) using the IRAM 30-m telescope. We have obtained supplementary observations of HC18O+(1-0), HC17O+(1-0), and D13CO+(2-1). Many of the observed maps show a general correlation with the distribution of dust continuum emission in contrast to C18O(1-0) and C17O(1-0) which give clear evidence for depletion of CO at positions close to the continuum peak. In particular N2D+(2-1) and (3-2) and to a lesser extent N2H+(1-0) appear to be excellent tracers of the dust continuum. We find that the tracers of high density gas (in particular N2D+) show a velocity gradient along the minor axis of the L1544 core and that there is evidence for larger linewidths close to the dust emission peak. We interpret this using the model of the L1544 proposed by Ciolek & Basu (2000) and by comparing the observed velocities with those expected on the basis of their model. The results show reasonable agreement between observations and model in that the velocity gradient along the minor axis and the line broadening toward the center of L1544 are predicted by the model. This is evidence in favour of the idea that amipolar diffusion across field lines is one of the basic processes leading to gravitational collapse. However, line widths are significantly narrower than observed and are better reproduced by the Myers & Zweibel (2001) model which considers the quasistatic vertical contraction of a layer due to dissipation of its Alfvenic turbulence, indicating the importance of this process for cores in the verge of forming a star.Comment: 24 pages, 9 figures, to be published in Ap

ATLASGAL - environments of 6.7 GHz methanol masers

Using the 870 micron APEX Telescope large area survey of the Galaxy, we have identified 577 submillimetre continuum sources with masers from the methanol multibeam survey in the region 280deg lt ell lt 20deg; |b| lt 1deg.5 94 per cent of methanol masers in the region are associated with submillimetre dust emission. We estimate masses for tilde450 maser-associated sources and find that methanol masers are preferentially associated with massive clumps. These clumps are centrally condensed, with envelope structures that appear to be scale-free, the mean maser position being offset from the peak column density by 0 plusmn 4 arcsec. Assuming a Kroupa initial mass function and a star formation efficiency of tilde30 per cent, we find that over two-thirds of the clumps are likely to form clusters with masses gt20 M$_?$. Furthermore, almost all clumps satisfy the empirical mass-size criterion for massive star formation. Bolometric luminosities taken from the literature for tilde100 clumps range between tilde100 and 10$^6$ L$_?$. This confirms the link between methanol masers and massive young stars for 90 per cent of our sample. The Galactic distribution of sources suggests that the star formation efficiency is significantly reduced in the Galactic Centre region, compared to the rest of the survey area, where it is broadly constant, and shows a significant drop in the massive star formation rate density in the outer Galaxy. We find no enhancement in source counts towards the southern Scutum-Centaurus arm tangent at ell tilde 315deg, which suggests that this arm is not actively forming stars.Peer reviewe