Planning the unplannable: Scenarios on the future of space

The article of record as published may be located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/ j.spacepol.2009.11.007This article explores the use of scenario analysis as a methodology to rigorously analyze potential space futures, particularly with respect to space security challenges, in the context of rapid and uncertain change across several dimensions of human space activities. The successful use of scenario analysis in other (e.g. corporate and military) sectors is described and results of an initial scenario analysis workshop are presented. Scenario analysis is recommended as a promising approach to evaluating the long-term consequences of various policy choices in the context of uncertainty, and as a process well-suited to fostering communication and building consensual knowledge among diverse stakeholders

Blame-proof policymaking: Congress and base closures

In contrast to the current political science literature on Congress, this thesis argues that the reelectability of Congressmen is not damaged when military bases in their districts are closed. According to Mayhew, Lindsay, and other scholars, members of Congress must prevent their bases from being closed or face 'great electoral jeopardy.' Nevertheless, beginning in 1987, legislators created a process that was designed to facilitate base closures. Why would they engage in such apparently suicidal behavior? Have voters actually punished the legislators that suffered base closures in their districts, as Mayhew and others would predict? After examining the Congressional election returns from 1990 and 1992, which followed the base closure rounds of 1989 and 1991, respectively, this thesis found that base closure has no effect on the reelectability of members of Congress. What accounts for this finding? Although bases often do provide important economic benefits for Congressional districts, and would therefore be expected to be of critical concern to voters, Congress designed a base closure system that insulated legislators from blame if bases were closed in their own districts. The success of this 'blame-proof' system has important implications for the future of the base-closing process and the larger question of how, and under what circumstances, Congress delegates power to the President.http://archive.org/details/blameproofpolicy1094539758Major, United States ArmyCaptain, United States Air ForceApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited

13-month climatology of the aerosol hygroscopicity at the free tropospheric site Jungfraujoch (3580 m a.s.l.)

A hygroscopicity tandem differential mobility analyzer (HTDMA) was operated at the high-alpine site Jungfraujoch in order to characterize the hygroscopic diameter growth factors of the free tropospheric Aitken and accumulation mode aerosol. More than ~5000 h of valid data were collected for the dry diameters <i>D</i><sub>0</sub> = 35, 50, 75, 110, 165, and 265 nm during the 13-month measurement period from 1 May 2008 through 31 May 2009. No distinct seasonal variability of the hygroscopic properties was observed. Annual mean hygroscopic diameter growth factors (<i>D</i>/<i>D</i><sub>0</sub>) at 90% relative humidity were found to be 1.34, 1.43, and 1.46 for <i>D</i><sub>0</sub> = 50, 110, and 265 nm, respectively. This size dependence can largely be attributed to the Kelvin effect because corresponding values of the hygroscopicity parameter κ are nearly independent of size. The mean hygroscopicity of the Aitken and accumulation mode aerosol at the free tropospheric site Jungfraujoch was found to be κ≈0.24 with little variability throughout the year. <br><br> The impact of Saharan dust events, a frequent phenomenon at the Jungfraujoch, on aerosol hygroscopicity was shown to be negligible for <i>D</i><sub>0</sub><265 nm. Thermally driven injections of planetary boundary layer (PBL) air, particularly observed in the early afternoon of summer days with convective anticyclonic weather conditions, lead to a decrease of aerosol hygroscopicity. However, the effect of PBL influence is not seen in the annual mean hygroscopicity data because the effect is small and those conditions (weather class, season and time of day) with PBL influence are relatively rare. <br><br> Aerosol hygroscopicity was found to be virtually independent of synoptic wind direction during advective weather situations, i.e. when horizontal motion of the atmosphere dominates over thermally driven convection. This indicates that the hygroscopic behavior of the aerosol observed at the Jungfraujoch can be considered representative of the lower free troposphere on at least a regional if not continental scale

Spitzer Observations of Cold Dust Galaxies

We combine new Spitzer Space Telescope observations in the mid- and far-infrared with SCUBA 850 micron observations to improve the measurement of dust temperatures, masses and luminosities for 11 galaxies of the SCUBA Local Universe Galaxy Survey (SLUGS). By fitting dust models we measure typical dust masses of 10E7.9 M_sol and dust luminosities of ~ 10E10 L_sol, for galaxies with modest star formation rates. The data presented in this paper combined with previous observations show that cold dust is present in all types of spiral galaxies and is a major contributor to their total luminosity. Because of the lower dust temperature of the SCUBA sources measured in this paper, they have flatter Far-IR nu F_nu(160um)/nu F_nu(850um) slopes than the larger Spitzer Nearby Galaxies Survey (SINGS), the sample that provides the best measurements of the dust properties of galaxies in the nearby universe. The new data presented here added to SINGS extend the parameter space that is well covered by local galaxies, providing a comprehensive set of templates that can be used to interpret the observations of nearby and distant galaxies.Comment: Accepted by A.J. 16 pages, 10 figures, 7 tables. High resolution version at http://mips.as.arizona.edu/~cnaw/slugs_hires.pd

A deep optical/near-infrared catalog of Serpens

We present a deep optical/near-infrared imaging survey of the Serpens molecular cloud. This survey constitutes the complementary optical data to the Spitzer "Core To Disk" (c2d) Legacy survey in this cloud. The survey was conducted using the Wide Field Camera at the Isaac Newton Telescope. About 0.96 square degrees were imaged in the R and Z filters, covering the entire region where most of the young stellar objects identified by the c2d survey are located. 26524 point-like sources were detected in both R and Z bands down to R=24.5 mag and Z=23 mag with a signal-to-noise ratio better than 3. The 95% completeness limit of our catalog corresponds to 0.04 solar masses for members of the Serpens star forming region (age 2 Myr and distance 260 pc) in the absence of extinction. Adopting the typical extinction of the observed area (Av=7 mag), we estimate a 95% completeness level down to 0.1 solar masses. The astrometric accuracy of our catalog is 0.4 arcsec with respect to the 2MASS catalog. Our final catalog contains J2000 celestial coordinates, magnitudes in the R and Z bands calibrated to the SDSS photometric system and, where possible, JHK magnitudes from 2MASS for sources in 0.96 square degrees in the direction of Serpens. This data product has been already used within the frame of the c2d Spitzer Legacy Project analysis in Serpens to study the star/disk formation and evolution in this cloud; here we use it to obtain new indications of the disk-less population in Serpens.Comment: 7 page, 5 figure

Physical properties of Southern infrared dark clouds

It is commonly assumed that cold and dense Infrared Dark Clouds (IRDCs) likely represent the birth sites massive stars. Therefore, this class of objects gets increasing attention. To enlarge the sample of well-characterised IRDCs in the southern hemisphere, we have set up a program to study the gas and dust of southern IRDCs. The present paper aims at characterizing the continuuum properties of this sample of objects. We cross-correlated 1.2 mm continuum data from SIMBA@SEST with Spitzer/GLIMPSE images to establish the connection between emission sources at millimeter wavelengths and the IRDCs we see at 8 $\mu$m in absorption against the bright PAH background. Analysing the dust emission and extinction leads to a determination of masses and column densities, which are important quantities in characterizing the initial conditions of massive star formation. The total masses of the IRDCs were found to range from 150 to 1150 $\rm M_\odot$ (emission data) and from 300 to 1750 $\rm M_\odot$ (extinction data). We derived peak column densities between 0.9 and 4.6 $\times 10^{22}$ cm$^{-2}$ (emission data) and 2.1 and 5.4 $\times 10^{22}$ cm$^{-2}$ (extinction data). We demonstrate that the extinction method fails for very high extinction values (and column densities) beyond A$_{\rm V}$ values of roughly 75 mag according to the Weingartner & Draine (2001) extinction relation $R_{\rm V} = 5.5$ model B. The derived column densities, taking into account the spatial resolution effects, are beyond the column density threshold of 3.0 $\times 10^{23}$ cm$^{-2}$ required by theoretical considerations for massive star formation. We conclude that the values for column densities derived for the selected IRDC sample make these objects excellent candidates for objects in the earliest stages of massive star formation.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysic

Seasonal and diurnal characteristics of water soluble inorganic compounds in the gas and aerosol phase in the Zurich area

Gas and aerosol samples were taken using a wet effluent diffusion denuder/aerosol collector (WEDD/AC) coupled to ion chromatography (IC) in the city of Zurich, Switzerland from August to September 2002 and in March 2003. Major water soluble inorganic ions; nitrate, sulfate, and nitrite were analyzed online with a time resolution of two hours for the gas and aerosol phase. The fraction of water soluble inorganic anions in PM10 varied from 15% in August to about 38% in March. Seasonal and diurnal variations of nitrate in the gas and aerosol phase were observed with more than 50% of the total nitrate in the gas phase during August and more than 80% of nitrate in the aerosol phase during March exceeding the concentration of sulfate by a factor of 2. Aerosol sulfate, on the other hand, did not show significant variability with season. However, in the gas phase, the SO₂ concentration was 6.5 times higher in winter than in summer. Nitrous acid (HONO) also showed a diurnal variation in both the gas and aerosol phase with the lowest concentration (0.2–0.6 µg/m³) in the afternoon. The primary pollutants, NO, CO and SO₂ mixing ratios were often at their highest between 04:00–10:00 local time due to the build up of fresh vehicle emission under a nocturnal inversion

Spitzer and near-infrared observations of a new bi-polar protostellar outflow in the Rosette Molecular Cloud

We present and discuss \emph{Spitzer} and near-infrared H$_{2}$ observations of a new bi-polar protostellar outflow in the Rosette Molecular Cloud. The outflow is seen in all four IRAC bands and partially as diffuse emission in the MIPS 24 $\mu$m band. An embedded MIPS 24 $\mu$m source bisects the outflow and appears to be the driving source. This source is coincident with a dark patch seen in absorption in the 8 $\mu$m IRAC image. \emph{Spitzer} IRAC color analysis of the shocked emission was performed from which thermal and column density maps of the outflow were constructed. Narrow-band near-infrared (NIR) images of the flow reveal H$_2$ emission features coincident with the high temperature regions of the outflow. This outflow has now been given the designation MHO 1321 due to the detection of NIR H$_2$ features. We use these data and maps to probe the physical conditions and structure of the flow.Comment: Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journa

Measured and predicted aerosol light scattering enhancement factors at the high alpine site Jungfraujoch

Ambient relative humidity (RH) determines the water content of atmospheric aerosol particles and thus has an important influence on the amount of visible light scattered by particles. The RH dependence of the particle light scattering coefficient (σ<sub>sp</sub>) is therefore an important variable for climate forcing calculations. We used a humidification system for a nephelometer which allows for the measurement of σ<sub>sp</sub> at a defined RH in the range of 20–95%. In this paper we present measurements of light scattering enhancement factors <i>f</i>(RH)=σ<sub>sp</sub>(RH)/σ<sub>sp</sub>(dry) from a 1-month campaign (May 2008) at the high alpine site Jungfraujoch (3580 m a.s.l.), Switzerland. Measurements at the Jungfraujoch are representative for the lower free troposphere above Central Europe. For this aerosol type hardly any information about the <i>f</i>(RH) is available so far. At this site, <i>f</i>(RH=85%) varied between 1.2 and 3.3. Measured <i>f</i>(RH) agreed well with <i>f</i>(RH) calculated with Mie theory using measurements of the size distribution, chemical composition and hygroscopic diameter growth factors as input. Good <i>f</i>(RH) predictions at RH<85% were also obtained with a simplified model, which uses the Ångström exponent of σ<sub>sp</sub>(dry) as input. RH influences further intensive optical aerosol properties. The backscatter fraction decreased by about 30% from 0.128 to 0.089, and the single scattering albedo increased on average by 0.05 at 85% RH compared to dry conditions. These changes in σ<sub>sp</sub>, backscatter fraction and single scattering albedo have a distinct impact on the radiative forcing of the Jungfraujoch aerosol

Dust processing in photodissociation regions - Mid-IR emission modelling

Mid-infrared spectroscopy of dense illuminated ridges (or photodissociation regions, PDRs) suggests dust evolution. Such evolution must be reflected in the gas physical properties through processes like photo-electric heating or H_2 formation. With Spitzer Infrared Spectrograph (IRS) and ISOCAM data, we study the mid-IR emission of closeby, well known PDRs. Focusing on the band and continuum dust emissions, we follow their relative contributions and analyze their variations in terms of abundance of dust populations. In order to disentangle dust evolution and excitation effects, we use a dust emission model that we couple to radiative transfer. Our dust model reproduces extinction and emission of the standard interstellar medium that we represent with diffuse high galactic latitude clouds called Cirrus. We take the properties of dust in Cirrus as a reference to which we compare the dust emission from more excited regions, namely the Horsehead and the reflection nebula NGC 2023 North. We show that in both regions, radiative transfer effects cannot account for the observed spectral variations. We interpret these variations in term of changes of the relative abundance between polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs, mid-IR band carriers) and very small grains (VSGs, mid-IR continuum carriers). We conclude that the PAH/VSG abundance ratio is 2.4 times smaller at the peak emission of the Horsehead nebula than in the Cirrus case. For NGC2023 North where spectral evolution is observed across the northern PDR, we conclude that this ratio is ~5 times lower in the dense, cold zones of the PDR than in its diffuse illuminated part where dust properties seem to be the same as in Cirrus. We conclude that dust in PDRs seems to evolve from "dense" to "diffuse" properties at the small spatial scale of the dense illuminated ridge.Comment: 11 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication in A&