Undated (circa 1861) - Almon L. Fogg recommends R.H. Day for a commission

https://digitalmaine.com/cw_me_17th_regiment_corr/1002/thumbnail.jp

Global surveillance of cancer survival 1995-2009: analysis of individual data for 25,676,887 patients from 279 population-based registries in 67 countries (CONCORD-2)

BACKGROUND: Worldwide data for cancer survival are scarce. We aimed to initiate worldwide surveillance of cancer survival by central analysis of population-based registry data, as a metric of the effectiveness of health systems, and to inform global policy on cancer control. METHODS: Individual tumour records were submitted by 279 population-based cancer registries in 67 countries for 25·7 million adults (age 15-99 years) and 75,000 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer during 1995-2009 and followed up to Dec 31, 2009, or later. We looked at cancers of the stomach, colon, rectum, liver, lung, breast (women), cervix, ovary, and prostate in adults, and adult and childhood leukaemia. Standardised quality control procedures were applied; errors were corrected by the registry concerned. We estimated 5-year net survival, adjusted for background mortality in every country or region by age (single year), sex, and calendar year, and by race or ethnic origin in some countries. Estimates were age-standardised with the International Cancer Survival Standard weights. FINDINGS: 5-year survival from colon, rectal, and breast cancers has increased steadily in most developed countries. For patients diagnosed during 2005-09, survival for colon and rectal cancer reached 60% or more in 22 countries around the world; for breast cancer, 5-year survival rose to 85% or higher in 17 countries worldwide. Liver and lung cancer remain lethal in all nations: for both cancers, 5-year survival is below 20% everywhere in Europe, in the range 15-19% in North America, and as low as 7-9% in Mongolia and Thailand. Striking rises in 5-year survival from prostate cancer have occurred in many countries: survival rose by 10-20% between 1995-99 and 2005-09 in 22 countries in South America, Asia, and Europe, but survival still varies widely around the world, from less than 60% in Bulgaria and Thailand to 95% or more in Brazil, Puerto Rico, and the USA. For cervical cancer, national estimates of 5-year survival range from less than 50% to more than 70%; regional variations are much wider, and improvements between 1995-99 and 2005-09 have generally been slight. For women diagnosed with ovarian cancer in 2005-09, 5-year survival was 40% or higher only in Ecuador, the USA, and 17 countries in Asia and Europe. 5-year survival for stomach cancer in 2005-09 was high (54-58%) in Japan and South Korea, compared with less than 40% in other countries. By contrast, 5-year survival from adult leukaemia in Japan and South Korea (18-23%) is lower than in most other countries. 5-year survival from childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia is less than 60% in several countries, but as high as 90% in Canada and four European countries, which suggests major deficiencies in the management of a largely curable disease. INTERPRETATION: International comparison of survival trends reveals very wide differences that are likely to be attributable to differences in access to early diagnosis and optimum treatment. Continuous worldwide surveillance of cancer survival should become an indispensable source of information for cancer patients and researchers and a stimulus for politicians to improve health policy and health-care systems

Breaks and the Statistical Process of Inflation:The Case of Estimating the ‘Modern’ Long-Run Phillips Curve*

‘Modern’ theories of the Phillips curve inadvertently imply that inflation is an integrated or near integrated process but this implication is strongly rejected using United States data. Alternatively, if we assume that inflation is a stationary process around a shifting mean (due to changes in monetary policy) then any estimate of long-run relationships in the data will suffer from a ‘small-sample’ problem as there are too few stationary inflation ‘regimes’. Using the extensive literature on identification of structural breaks we identify inflation regimes which are used in turn to estimate with panel data techniques the United States long-run Phillips curve

Worldwide comparison of survival from childhood leukaemia for 1995–2009, by subtype, age, and sex (CONCORD-2): a population-based study of individual data for 89 828 children from 198 registries in 53 countries

Background Global inequalities in access to health care are reflected in differences in cancer survival. The CONCORD programme was designed to assess worldwide differences and trends in population-based cancer survival. In this population-based study, we aimed to estimate survival inequalities globally for several subtypes of childhood leukaemia. Methods Cancer registries participating in CONCORD were asked to submit tumour registrations for all children aged 0-14 years who were diagnosed with leukaemia between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2009, and followed up until Dec 31, 2009. Haematological malignancies were defined by morphology codes in the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, third revision. We excluded data from registries from which the data were judged to be less reliable, or included only lymphomas, and data from countries in which data for fewer than ten children were available for analysis. We also excluded records because of a missing date of birth, diagnosis, or last known vital status. We estimated 5-year net survival (ie, the probability of surviving at least 5 years after diagnosis, after controlling for deaths from other causes [background mortality]) for children by calendar period of diagnosis (1995-99, 2000-04, and 2005-09), sex, and age at diagnosis (< 1, 1-4, 5-9, and 10-14 years, inclusive) using appropriate life tables. We estimated age-standardised net survival for international comparison of survival trends for precursor-cell acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) and acute myeloid leukaemia (AML). Findings We analysed data from 89 828 children from 198 registries in 53 countries. During 1995-99, 5-year agestandardised net survival for all lymphoid leukaemias combined ranged from 10.6% (95% CI 3.1-18.2) in the Chinese registries to 86.8% (81.6-92.0) in Austria. International differences in 5-year survival for childhood leukaemia were still large as recently as 2005-09, when age-standardised survival for lymphoid leukaemias ranged from 52.4% (95% CI 42.8-61.9) in Cali, Colombia, to 91.6% (89.5-93.6) in the German registries, and for AML ranged from 33.3% (18.9-47.7) in Bulgaria to 78.2% (72.0-84.3) in German registries. Survival from precursor-cell ALL was very close to that of all lymphoid leukaemias combined, with similar variation. In most countries, survival from AML improved more than survival from ALL between 2000-04 and 2005-09. Survival for each type of leukaemia varied markedly with age: survival was highest for children aged 1-4 and 5-9 years, and lowest for infants (younger than 1 year). There was no systematic difference in survival between boys and girls. Interpretation Global inequalities in survival from childhood leukaemia have narrowed with time but remain very wide for both ALL and AML. These results provide useful information for health policy makers on the effectiveness of health-care systems and for cancer policy makers to reduce inequalities in childhood survival

How Do Households Discount Over Centuries? Evidence from Singapore's Private Housing Market

We examine Singapore's fairly homogeneous private-housing market and show that new apartments on historical multi-century leases trade at a non-zero discount relative to property owned in perpetuity. Descriptive regressions indicate that new apartments with 825 to 986 years of tenure remaining are priced 4 to 6% below new apartments under perpetual ownership contracts that are otherwise comparable. We consider an empirical model in which asset value is decomposed into the utility of housing services and a second factor that shifts with asset tenure and the discount rate schedule. Exploiting the supply of new property with tenure ranging from multiple decades to multiple centuries, we estimate the discount rate schedule, restricting it to vary smoothly over time through alternative parametric forms. Across different specifications and subsamples, we estimate discount rates that decline over time and, accounting for the observed price differences, are of the order of 0.5% p.a. by year 400-500. The finding that households making sizable transactions do not entirely discount benefits accruing many centuries from today is new to the empirical literature on discounting and, with the appropriate risk adjustment, of relevance to evaluating climate-change investments

A comparison of diagnostic tests for lactose malabsorption - which one is the best?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Perceived milk intolerance is a common complaint, and tests for lactose malabsorption (LM) are unreliable. This study assesses the agreement between diagnostic tests for LM and describes the diagnostic properties of the tests.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Patients above 18 years of age with suspected LM were included. After oral intake of 25 g lactose, a combined test with measurement of serum glucose (s-glucose) and hydrogen (H2) and methane (CH4) in expired air was performed and symptoms were recorded. In patients with discrepancies between the results, the combined test was repeated and a gene test for lactose non-persistence was added. The diagnosis of LM was based on an evaluation of all tests. The following tests were compared: Increase in H2, CH4, H2+CH4 and H2+CH4x2 in expired air, increase in s-glucose, and symptoms. The agreement was calculated and the diagnostic properties described.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Sixty patients were included, seven (12%) had LM. The agreement (kappa-values) between the methods varied from 0.25 to 0.91. The best test was the lactose breath test with measurement of the increase in H2 + CH4x2 in expired air. With a cut-off level < 18 ppm, the area under the ROC-curve was 0.967 and sensitivity was 100%. This shows that measurement of CH4 in addition to H2 improves the diagnostic properties of the breath test.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The agreement between commonly used methods for the diagnosis of LM was unsatisfactory. A lactose breath test with measurement of H2 + CH4x2 in expired air had the best diagnostic properties.</p

Head-to-head trial of pegunigalsidase alfa versus agalsidase beta in patients with Fabry disease and deteriorating renal function: results from the 2-year randomised phase III BALANCE study

BACKGROUND: Pegunigalsidase alfa is a PEGylated α-galactosidase A enzyme replacement therapy. BALANCE (NCT02795676) assessed non-inferiority of pegunigalsidase alfa versus agalsidase beta in adults with Fabry disease with an annualised estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) slope more negative than -2 mL/min/1.73 m2/year who had received agalsidase beta for ≥1 year. METHODS: Patients were randomly assigned 2:1 to receive 1 mg/kg pegunigalsidase alfa or agalsidase beta every 2 weeks for 2 years. The primary efficacy analysis assessed non-inferiority based on median annualised eGFR slope differences between treatment arms. RESULTS: Seventy-seven patients received either pegunigalsidase alfa (n=52) or agalsidase beta (n=25). At baseline, mean (range) age was 44 (18-60) years, 47 (61%) patients were male, median eGFR was 74.5 mL/min/1.73 m2 and median (range) eGFR slope was -7.3 (-30.5, 6.3) mL/min/1.73 m2/year. At 2 years, the difference between median eGFR slopes was -0.36 mL/min/1.73 m2/year, meeting the prespecified non-inferiority margin. Minimal changes were observed in lyso-Gb3 concentrations in both treatment arms at 2 years. Proportions of patients experiencing treatment-related adverse events and mild or moderate infusion-related reactions were similar in both groups, yet exposure-adjusted rates were 3.6-fold and 7.8-fold higher, respectively, with agalsidase beta than pegunigalsidase alfa. At the end of the study, neutralising antibodies were detected in 7 out of 47 (15%) pegunigalsidase alfa-treated patients and 6 out of 23 (26%) agalsidase beta-treated patients. There were no deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Based on rate of eGFR decline over 2 years, pegunigalsidase alfa was non-inferior to agalsidase beta. Pegunigalsidase alfa had lower rates of treatment-emergent adverse events and mild or moderate infusion-related reactions. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02795676

Real-Time Forecasting with a MIDAS VAR

This paper presents a MIDAS type mixed frequency VAR forecasting model. First, we propose a general and compact mixed frequency VAR framework using a stacked vector approach. Second, we integrate the mixed frequency VAR with a MIDAS type Almon lag polynomial scheme which is designed to reduce the parameter space while keeping models flexible. We show how to recast the resulting non-linear MIDAS type mixed frequency VAR into a linear equation system that can be easily estimated. A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise with US real-time data yields that the mixed frequency VAR substantially improves predictive accuracy upon a standard VAR for different VAR specififications. Forecast errors for, e.g., GDP growth decrease by 30 to 60 percent for forecast horizons up to six months and by around 20 percent for a forecast horizon of one year

Acute effects of fine particulate air pollution on ST segment height: A longitudinal study

Background The mechanisms for the relationship between particulate air pollution and cardiac disease are not fully understood. Air pollution-induced myocardial ischemia is one of the potentially important mechanisms. Methods We investigate the acute effects and the time course of fine particulate pollution (PM2.5) on myocardium ischemic injury as assessed by ST-segment height in a community-based sample of 106 healthy non-smokers. Twenty-four hour beat-to-beat electrocardiogram (ECG) data were obtained using a high resolution 12-lead Holter ECG system. After visually identifying and removing all the artifacts and arrhythmic beats, we calculated beat-to-beat ST-height from ten leads (inferior leads II, III, and aVF; anterior leads V3 and V4; septal leads V1 and V2; lateral leads I, V5, and V6,). Individual-level 24-hour real-time PM2.5 concentration was obtained by a continuous personal PM2.5 monitor. We then calculated, on a 30-minute basis, the corresponding time-of-the-day specific average exposure to PM2.5 for each participant. Distributed lag models under a linear mixed-effects models framework were used to assess the regression coefficients between 30-minute PM2.5 and ST-height measures from each lead; i.e., one lag indicates a 30-minute separation between the exposure and outcome. Results The mean (SD) age was 56 (7.6) years, with 41% male and 74% white. The mean (SD) PM2.5 exposure was 14 (22) μg/m3. All inferior leads (II, III, and aVF) and two out of three lateral leads (I and V6), showed a significant association between higher PM2.5 levels and higher ST-height. Most of the adverse effects occurred within two hours after PM2.5 exposure. The multivariable adjusted regression coefficients β (95% CI) of the cumulative effect due to a 10 μg/m3 increase in Lag 0-4 PM2.5 on ST-I, II, III, aVF and ST-V6 were 0.29 (0.01-0.56) μV, 0.79 (0.20-1.39) μV, 0.52 (0.01-1.05) μV, 0.65 (0.11-1.19) μV, and 0.58 (0.07-1.09) μV, respectively, with all p < 0.05. Conclusions Increased PM2.5 concentration is associated with immediate increase in ST-segment height in inferior and lateral leads, generally within two hours. Such an acute effect of PM2.5 may contribute to increased potential for regional myocardial ischemic injury among healthy individuals