Methane and ethane from global oil and gas production: bottom-up simulations over three decades

Existing bottom-up emission inventories of historical methane and ethane emissions from global oil and gas systems do not well explain year-on-year variations estimated by top-down models from atmospheric measurements. This paper develops a bottom-up methodology which allows for country- and year specific source attribution of methane and ethane emissions from global oil and natural gas production for the period 1980 to 2012. The analysis rests on country-specific simulations of associated gas flows which are converted into methane and ethane emissions. The associated gas flows are constructed from country-specific information on oil and gas production and associated gas generation and recovery, and coupled with generic assumptions to bridge regional information gaps on the fractions of unrecovered associated gas that is vented instead of flared. Summing up emissions from associated gas flows with global estimates of emissions from unintended leakage and natural gas transmission and distribution, the resulting global emissions of methane and ethane from oil and gas systems are reasonably consistent with corresponding estimates from top-down models. Also revealed is that the fall of the Soviet Union in 1990 had a significant impact on methane and ethane emissions from global oil and gas systems

The GAINS Model for Greenhouse Gases: Emissions, Control Potentials and Control Costs for Methane

This report estimates current and future emissions of methane in 42 regions in Europe, assesses the potential for reducing emissions and quantifies the costs of the available emission control measures. The report identifies 28 control measures, ranging from animal feed changes over waste management options to various approaches for gas recovery and utilization. For each of these options, the report examines country-specific applicability and removal efficiency and determines the costs. As a result, methane emissions in Europe are estimated for the year 1990 at 64,200 kt CH4. Assuming the penetration of emission controls as laid down in the current legislation, emissions would decline up to 2020 by 11,700 kt CH4 per year. Full application of the presently available emission control measures could achieve an additional decline in European methane emissions by 24,000 kt per year. 75 percent of this potential could be attained at a cost of less than two billion Euros/year or 50 Euros/t CO2-equivalent, while the further 5,000 kt CH4/year would require costs of 12 billion Euros/year

Impacts of the Kigali Amendment to phase-down hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in Asia

The Montreal Protocol (UNEP, 2007) has successfully worked to phase out the use of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) primarily by substituting the use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrochloroflourocarbons (HCFCs) with hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in various sectors such as refrigeration, air-conditioning, aerosols, fire extinguishers and foam blowing. As well, HFC-23 is generated as a by-product of HCFC-22 production for feedstock and emissive use. The high Global Warming Potentials (GWP) of HFCs replacing ODSs is a climate concern and the reason behind the Kigali Amendment of the Montreal Protocol adopted during the 28th Meeting of the Parties 8-14 October 2016 in Kigali, Rwanda (UNEP, 2016a) to phase-down the use of HFCs globally by 2050. HFC emissions have increased significantly in recent years and can without a targeted HFC phase-down be expected to rise further in response to increased demand for cooling services and the phase-out of ODSs. The focus of this study is to analyze the implications on emissions and co-benefits like electricity savings of meeting the HFC phase-down targets in Asian countries set out in the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol. We develop baseline and alternative policy scenarios for Asian countries using the HFC module of the Greenhouse gas and Air pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model (http://gains.iiasa.ac.at) framework developed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and described in Purohit and Höglund-Isaksson (2017). The report is structured as follows: Section 2 briefly explains different policy scenarios analyzed in this study. Section 3 highlights key control measures adopted by Asian countries. Section 4 presents estimated HFC emissions in different policy scenarios along with mitigation potentials and discusses possible co-benefits associated with mitigation. Section 5 concludes key findings and policy recommendations

Potentials and Costs for Mitigation of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases in Annex 1 Countries: Version 2.0

This report documents the specific methodology of IIASA's GAINS model on methane, nitrous oxide and fluorinated gases that has been used for comparing mitigation efforts across Annex I Parties. More details are available at gains.iiasa.ac.at

Emission Scenarios for Methane and Nitrous Oxides from the Agricultural Sector in the EU-25

This report presents three emission scenarios of non-CO2 greenhouse gases from the agricultural sector of the EU-25 until 2020. These scenarios explore the likely implications of changes in agricultural production due to the - implementations of the EU Agenda 2000 CAP Reform of 1999 and the EU Nitrates Directive of 1991 (as used for the analyses of the EU Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) programme), - the implementation of the 2003 Mid-term review of the CAP reform and from anticipated impacts on fertilizer use of the reform of the EU sugar sector agreed in 2005, - and compare them with the agricultural projections provided by the EU Member States to IIASA for the preparations of the revision of the EU Emission Ceilings Directive in 2005. The emission scenarios have been developed with IIASA's Greenhouse and Air pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model (www.iiasa.ac.at/gains), which constitutes an extension of the Regional Air Pollution Information and Simulation (RAINS) model (www.iiasa.ac.at/rains) to greenhouse gases. All scenarios suggest for the EU-25 a significant decline of agricultural non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions between 1990 and future years, mainly as a consequence of declining cattle numbers due to productivity increases in milk and beef production and more efficient application of fertilizers. For the first scenario (i.e., CAFE projections reflecting the impacts of the Agenda 2000 CAP reform and the Nitrates Directive), an 11-13 percent decline of emissions from the EU-25 is estimated for the period 1990 to 2010, depending on the calculation methodology. The changes in livestock numbers and fertilizer use implied by the 2003 Mid-term review of the CAP reform and the EU sugar reform would reduce non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions further by approximately four percentage points. Based on the national projections of livestock numbers and fertilizer use as provided in 2005 by the Member States for the NEC revision, agricultural non-CO2 greenhouse gases are computed to decline by approximately 16 percent up to 2010. These trends show significant variations across Member States. Emissions from the old Member States (EU-15) are calculated to decline by between 7 to 13 percent, depending on the agricultural scenario and calculation method. For the new Member States (NMS-10), reductions between 32 and 35 percent are estimated. More than half of these reductions have occurred between 1990 and 1995, mainly due to the structural changes in the New Member States. Scenario 1 results in four percent additional emission reductions between 1995 and 2010, while the Mid-term CAP review Scenario 2 and the national projections suggest an eight percent further decline by approximately two percentage points