Sequential Implementation of Monte Carlo Tests with Uniformly Bounded Resampling Risk

This paper introduces an open-ended sequential algorithm for computing the p-value of a test using Monte Carlo simulation. It guarantees that the resampling risk, the probability of a different decision than the one based on the theoretical p-value, is uniformly bounded by an arbitrarily small constant. Previously suggested sequential or non-sequential algorithms, using a bounded sample size, do not have this property. Although the algorithm is open-ended, the expected number of steps is finite, except when the p-value is on the threshold between rejecting and not rejecting. The algorithm is suitable as standard for implementing tests that require (re-)sampling. It can also be used in other situations: to check whether a test is conservative, iteratively to implement double bootstrap tests, and to determine the sample size required for a certain power.Comment: Major Revision 15 pages, 4 figure

The Importance of Phase in Nulling Interferometry and a Three Telescope Closure-Phase Nulling Interferometer Concept

We discuss the theory of the Bracewell nulling interferometer and explicitly demonstrate that the phase of the "white light" null fringe is the same as the phase of the bright output from an ordinary stellar interferometer. As a consequence a "closure phase" exists for a nulling interferometer with three or more telescopes. We calculate the phase offset as a function of baseline length for an Earth-like planet around the Sun at 10 pc, with a contrast ratio of $10^{-6}$ at 10 $\mu$m. The magnitude of the phase due to the planet is $\sim 10^{-6}$ radians, assuming the star is at the phase center of the array. Although this is small, this phase may be observable in a three-telescope nulling interferometer that measures the closure phase. We propose a simple non-redundant three-telescope nulling interferometer that can perform this measurement. This configuration is expected to have improved characteristics compared to other nulling interferometer concepts, such as a relaxation of pathlength tolerances, through the use of the "ratio of wavelengths" technique, a closure phase, and better discrimination between exodiacal dust and planets

Using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for estimating parameters with gravitational radiation data

We present a Bayesian approach to the problem of determining parameters for coalescing binary systems observed with laser interferometric detectors. By applying a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, specifically the Gibbs sampler, we demonstrate the potential that MCMC techniques may hold for the computation of posterior distributions of parameters of the binary system that created the gravity radiation signal. We describe the use of the Gibbs sampler method, and present examples whereby signals are detected and analyzed from within noisy data.Comment: 21 pages, 10 figure

A low optical depth region in the inner disk of the HerbigAe star HR5999

Circumstellar disks surrounding young stars are known to be the birthplaces of planets, and the innermost astronomical unit is of particular interest. We present new long-baseline spectro-interferometric observations of the HerbigAe star, HR5999, obtained in the H and K bands with the AMBER instrument at the VLTI, and aim to produce near-infrared images at the sub-AU spatial scale. We spatially resolve the circumstellar material and reconstruct images using the MiRA algorithm. In addition, we interpret the interferometric observations using models that assume that the near-infrared excess is dominated by the emission of a circumstellar disk. We compare the images reconstructed from the VLTI measurements to images obtained using simulated model data. The K-band image reveals three main elements: a ring-like feature located at ~0.65 AU, a low surface brightness region inside, and a central spot. At the maximum angular resolution of our observations (1.3 mas), the ring is resolved while the central spot is only marginally resolved, preventing us from revealing the exact morphology of the circumstellar environment. We suggest that the ring traces silicate condensation, i.e., an opacity change, in a circumstellar disk around HR 5999. We build a model that includes a ring at the silicate sublimation radius and an inner disk of low surface brightness responsible for a large amount of the near-infrared continuum emission. The model successfully fits the SED, visibilities, and closure phases, and provides evidence of a low surface brightness region inside the silicate sublimation radius. This study provides additional evidence that in HerbigAe stars, there is material in a low surface brightness region, probably a low optical depth region, located inside the silicate sublimation radius and of unknown nature.Comment: 11 pages, 10 figure

Mapping the Shores of the Brown Dwarf Desert III: Young Moving Groups

We present the results of an aperture masking interferometry survey for substellar companions around 67 members of the young (~8-200Myr) nearby (~5-86pc) AB Doradus, Beta Pictoris, Hercules-Lyra, TW Hya, and Tucana-Horologium stellar associations. Observations were made at near infrared wavelengths between 1.2-3.8 microns using the adaptive optics facilities of the Keck II, VLT UT4, and Palomar Hale Telescopes. Typical contrast ratios of ~100-200 were achieved at angular separations between ~40-320mas, with our survey being 100% complete for companions with masses below 0.25\msolar across this range. We report the discovery of a $0.52 \pm 0.09$\msolar companion to HIP14807, as well as the detections and orbits of previously known stellar companions to HD16760, HD113449, and HD160934. We show that the companion to HD16760 is in a face-on orbit, resulting in an upward revision of its mass from $M_2 \sin i \sim 14$\mjupiter to $M_2 = 0.28 \pm 0.04$\msolar. No substellar companions were detected around any of our sample members, despite our ability to detect companions with masses below 80\mjupiter for 50 of our targets: of these, our sensitivity extended down to 40\mjupiter around 30 targets, with a subset of 22 subject to the still more stringent limit of 20\mjupiter. A statistical analysis of our non-detection of substellar companions allows us to place constraints on their frequency around ~0.2-1.5\msolar stars. In particular, considering companion mass distributions that have been proposed in the literature, we obtain an upper limit estimate of ~9-11% for the frequency of 20-80\mjupiter companions between 3-30AU at 95% confidence, assuming that their semimajor axes are distributed according to $d\mathcal{N}/da \propto a^{-1}$ in this range.Comment: Accepted by Ap

Analysis of the Listeria monocytogenes Population Structure among Isolates from 1931 to 2015 in Australia

Listeriosis remains among the most important bacterial illnesses, with a high associated mortality rate. Efforts to control listeriosis require detailed knowledge of the epidemiology of the disease itself, and its etiological bacterium, Listeria monocytogenes. In this study we provide an in-depth analysis of the epidemiology of 224 L. monocytogenes isolates from Australian clinical and non-clinical sources. Non-human sources included meat, dairy, seafood, fruit, and vegetables, along with animal and environmental isolates. Serotyping, Multi-Locus Sequence Typing, and analysis of inlA gene sequence were performed. Serogroups IIA, IIB, and IVB comprised 94% of all isolates, with IVB over-represented among clinical isolates. Serogroup IIA was the most common among dairy and meat isolates. Lineage I isolates were most common among clinical isolates, and 52% of clinical isolates belonged to ST1. Overall 39 STs were identified in this study, with ST1 and ST3 containing the largest numbers of L. monocytogenes isolates. These STs comprised 40% of the total isolates (n = 90), and both harbored isolates from clinical and non-clinical sources. ST204 was the third most common ST. The high prevalence of this group among L. monocytogenes populations has not been reported outside Australia. Twenty-seven percent of the STs in this study contained exclusively clinical isolates. Analysis of the virulence protein InlA among isolates in this study identified a truncated form of the protein among isolates from ST121 and ST325. The ST325 group contained a previously unreported novel mutation leading to production of a 93 amino acid protein. This study provides insights in the population structure of L. monocytogenes isolated in Australia, which will contribute to public health knowledge relating to this important human pathogen

Bayesian Best-Arm Identification for Selecting Influenza Mitigation Strategies

Pandemic influenza has the epidemic potential to kill millions of people. While various preventive measures exist (i.a., vaccination and school closures), deciding on strategies that lead to their most effective and efficient use remains challenging. To this end, individual-based epidemiological models are essential to assist decision makers in determining the best strategy to curb epidemic spread. However, individual-based models are computationally intensive and it is therefore pivotal to identify the optimal strategy using a minimal amount of model evaluations. Additionally, as epidemiological modeling experiments need to be planned, a computational budget needs to be specified a priori. Consequently, we present a new sampling technique to optimize the evaluation of preventive strategies using fixed budget best-arm identification algorithms. We use epidemiological modeling theory to derive knowledge about the reward distribution which we exploit using Bayesian best-arm identification algorithms (i.e., Top-two Thompson sampling and BayesGap). We evaluate these algorithms in a realistic experimental setting and demonstrate that it is possible to identify the optimal strategy using only a limited number of model evaluations, i.e., 2-to-3 times faster compared to the uniform sampling method, the predominant technique used for epidemiological decision making in the literature. Finally, we contribute and evaluate a statistic for Top-two Thompson sampling to inform the decision makers about the confidence of an arm recommendation

Methods for detecting flaring structures in Sagittarius A* with high frequency VLBI

The super massive black hole candidate, Sagittarius A*, exhibits variability from radio to X-ray wavelengths on time scales that correspond to < 10 Schwarzschild radii. We survey the potential of millimeter-wavelength VLBI to detect and constrain time variable structures that could give rise to such variations, focusing on a model in which an orbiting hot spot is embedded in an accretion disk. Non-imaging algorithms are developed that use interferometric closure quantities to test for periodicity, and applied to an ensemble of hot-spot models that sample a range of parameter space. We find that structural periodicity in a wide range of cases can be detected on most potential VLBI arrays using modern VLBI instrumentation. Future enhancements of mm/sub-mm VLBI arrays including phased array processors to aggregate VLBI station collecting area, increased bandwidth recording, and addition of new VLBI sites all significantly aid periodicity detection. The methods described herein can be applied to other models of Sagittarius A*, including jet outflows and Magneto-Hydrodynamic accretion simulations.Comment: Submitted to Ap

The HgMn Binary Star Phi Herculis: Detection and Properties of the Secondary and Revision of the Elemental Abundances of the Primary

Observations of the Mercury-Manganese star Phi Herculis with the Navy Prototype Optical Interferometer (NPOI) conclusively reveal the previously unseen companion in this single-lined binary system. The NPOI data were used to predict a spectral type of A8V for the secondary star Phi Her B. This prediction was subsequently confirmed by spectroscopic observations obtained at the Dominion Astrophysical Observatory. Phi Her B is rotating at 50 +/-3 km/sec, in contrast to the 8 km/sec lines of Phi Her A. Recognizing the lines from the secondary permits one to separate them from those of the primary. The abundance analysis of Phi Her A shows an abundance pattern similar to those of other HgMn stars with Al being very underabundant and Sc, Cr, Mn, Zn, Ga, Sr, Y, Zr, Ba, Ce, and Hg being very overabundant.Comment: Accepted to ApJ, 45 pages, 11 figure

Supermassive Black Holes in Galactic Nuclei: Past, Present and Future Research

This review discusses the current status of supermassive black hole research, as seen from a purely observational standpoint. Since the early '90s, rapid technological advances, most notably the launch of the Hubble Space Telescope, the commissioning of the VLBA and improvements in near-infrared speckle imaging techniques, have not only given us incontrovertible proof of the existence of supermassive black holes, but have unveiled fundamental connections between the mass of the central singularity and the global properties of the host galaxy. It is thanks to these observations that we are now, for the first time, in a position to understand the origin, evolution and cosmic relevance of these fascinating objects.Comment: Invited Review, 114 pages. Because of space requirements, this version contains low resolution figures. The full resolution version can be downloaded from http://www.physics.rutgers.edu/~lff/publications.htm