On Optimality of Stepdown and Stepup Multiple Test Procedures

Consider the multiple testing problem of testing k null hypotheses, where the unknown family of distributions is assumed to satisfy a certain monotonicity assumption. Attention is restricted to procedures that control the familywise error rate in the strong sense and which satisfy a monotonicity condition. Under these assumptions, we prove certain maximin optimality results for some well-known stepdown and stepup procedures.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009053605000000066 in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

The effects of multiple aerospace environmental stressors on human performance

An extended Fitt's law paradigm reaction time (RT) task was used to evaluate the effects of acceleration on human performance in the Dynamic Environment Simulator (DES) at Armstrong Laboratory, Wright-Patterson AFB, Ohio. This effort was combined with an evaluation of the standard CSU-13 P anti-gravity suit versus three configurations of a 'retrograde inflation anti-G suit'. Results indicated that RT and error rates increased 17 percent and 14 percent respectively from baseline to the end of the simulated aerial combat maneuver and that the most common error was pressing too few buttons

The Exchange Rate Exposure of U.S. and Japanese Banking Institutions

In this paper, we examine the foreign exchange exposure of a sample of U. S. and Japanese banking firms. Using daily data, we construct estimates of the exchange rate sensitivity of the equity returns of the U.S. bank holding companies and compare them to those of the Japanese banks. We find that the stock returns of a significant fraction of the U. S. companies move with the exchange rate, while few of the Japanese returns that we observe do so. We next examine more closely the sensitivity of the U.S. firms by linking the U.S. estimates cross-sectionally to accounting-based measures of currency risk. We suggest that the sensitivity estimates can provide a benchmark for assessing the adequacy of existing accounting measures of currency risk. Benchmarked in this way, the reported measures that we examine appear to provide a significant, though only partial, picture of the exchange rate exposure of U. S. banking institutions. The cross-sectional evidence is also consistent with the use of foreign exchange contracts for the purpose of hedging.Foreign Exchange Risk, Banking, Market Risk

Four-colour photometry of eclipsing binaries. XLI uvby light curves for AD Bootis, HW Canis Majoris, SW Canis Majoris, V636 Centauri, VZ Hydrae, and WZ Ophiuchi

CONTEXT: Accurate mass, radius, and abundance determinations from binaries provide important information on stellar evolution, fundamental to central fields in modern astrophysics and cosmology. AIMS: Within the long-term Copenhagen Binary Project, we aim to obtain high-quality light curves and standard photometry for double-lined detached eclipsing binaries with late A, F, and G type main-sequence components, needed for the determination of accurate absolute dimensions and abundances, and for detailed comparisons with results from recent stellar evolutionary models. METHODS: Between March 1985 and July 2007, we carried out photometric observations of AD Boo, HW CMA, SW CMa, V636 Cen, VZ Hya, and WZ Oph at the Str"omgren Automatic Telescope at ESO, La Silla. RESULTS: We obtained complete uvby light curves, ephemerides, and standard uvby\beta indices for all six systems.For V636 Cen and HW CMa, we present the first modern light curves, whereas for AD Boo, SW CMa, VZ Hya, and WZ Oph, they are both more accurate and more complete than earlier data. Due to a high orbital eccentricity (e = 0.50), combined with a low orbital inclination (i = 84.7), only one eclipse, close to periastron, occurs for HW CMa. For the two other eccentric systems, V636 Cen (e = 0.134) and SW CMa (e = 0.316), apsidal motion has been detected with periods of 5270 +/- 335 and 14900 +/- 3600 years, respectively.Comment: Only change is: Bottom lines (hopefully) not truncated anymore. Accepted for publication in Astonomy & Astrophysic

A perspective on the landscape problem

I discuss the historical roots of the landscape problem and propose criteria for its successful resolution. This provides a perspective to evaluate the possibility to solve it in several of the speculative cosmological scenarios under study including eternal inflation, cosmological natural selection and cyclic cosmologies.Comment: Invited contribution for a special issue of Foundations of Physics titled: Forty Years Of String Theory: Reflecting On the Foundations. 31 pages, no figure

Bayes and health care research.

Bayes’ rule shows how one might rationally change one’s beliefs in the light of evidence. It is the foundation of a statistical method called Bayesianism. In health care research, Bayesianism has its advocates but the dominant statistical method is frequentism. There are at least two important philosophical differences between these methods. First, Bayesianism takes a subjectivist view of probability (i.e. that probability scores are statements of subjective belief, not objective fact) whilst frequentism takes an objectivist view. Second, Bayesianism is explicitly inductive (i.e. it shows how we may induce views about the world based on partial data from it) whereas frequentism is at least compatible with non-inductive views of scientific method, particularly the critical realism of Popper. Popper and others detail significant problems with induction. Frequentism’s apparent ability to avoid these, plus its ability to give a seemingly more scientific and objective take on probability, lies behind its philosophical appeal to health care researchers. However, there are also significant problems with frequentism, particularly its inability to assign probability scores to single events. Popper thus proposed an alternative objectivist view of probability, called propensity theory, which he allies to a theory of corroboration; but this too has significant problems, in particular, it may not successfully avoid induction. If this is so then Bayesianism might be philosophically the strongest of the statistical approaches. The article sets out a number of its philosophical and methodological attractions. Finally, it outlines a way in which critical realism and Bayesianism might work together. </p

Facts, Values and Quanta

Quantum mechanics is a fundamentally probabilistic theory (at least so far as the empirical predictions are concerned). It follows that, if one wants to properly understand quantum mechanics, it is essential to clearly understand the meaning of probability statements. The interpretation of probability has excited nearly as much philosophical controversy as the interpretation of quantum mechanics. 20th century physicists have mostly adopted a frequentist conception. In this paper it is argued that we ought, instead, to adopt a logical or Bayesian conception. The paper includes a comparison of the orthodox and Bayesian theories of statistical inference. It concludes with a few remarks concerning the implications for the concept of physical reality.Comment: 30 pages, AMS Late

Quantum erasure within the Optical Stern-Gerlach Model

In the optical Stern-Gerlach effect the two branches in which the incoming atomic packet splits up can display interference pattern outside the cavity when a field measurement is made which erases the which-way information on the quantum paths the system can follow. On the contrary, the mere possibility to acquire this information causes a decoherence effect which cancels out the interference pattern. A phase space analysis is also carried out to investigate on the negativity of the Wigner function and on the connection between its covariance matrix and the distinguishability of the quantum paths.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figure

Accurate masses and radii of normal stars: modern results and applications

This paper presents and discusses a critical compilation of accurate, fundamental determinations of stellar masses and radii. We have identified 95 detached binary systems containing 190 stars (94 eclipsing systems, and alpha Centauri) that satisfy our criterion that the mass and radius of both stars be known to 3% or better. To these we add interstellar reddening, effective temperature, metal abundance, rotational velocity and apsidal motion determinations when available, and we compute a number of other physical parameters, notably luminosity and distance. We discuss the use of this information for testing models of stellar evolution. The amount and quality of the data also allow us to analyse the tidal evolution of the systems in considerable depth, testing prescriptions of rotational synchronisation and orbital circularisation in greater detail than possible before. The new data also enable us to derive empirical calibrations of M and R for single (post-) main-sequence stars above 0.6 M(Sun). Simple, polynomial functions of T(eff), log g and [Fe/H] yield M and R with errors of 6% and 3%, respectively. Excellent agreement is found with independent determinations for host stars of transiting extrasolar planets, and good agreement with determinations of M and R from stellar models as constrained by trigonometric parallaxes and spectroscopic values of T(eff) and [Fe/H]. Finally, we list a set of 23 interferometric binaries with masses known to better than 3%, but without fundamental radius determinations (except alpha Aur). We discuss the prospects for improving these and other stellar parameters in the near future.Comment: 56 pages including figures and tables. To appear in The Astronomy and Astrophysics Review. Ascii versions of the tables will appear in the online version of the articl

Evaluating GAIA performances on eclipsing binaries. I. Orbits and stellar parameters for V505 Per, V570 Per and OO Peg

The orbits and physical parameters of three detached, double-lined A-F eclipsing binaries have been derived combining H_P, V_T, B_T photometry from the Hipparcos/Tycho mission with 8500-8750 Ang ground-based spectroscopy, mimicking the photometric+spectroscopic observations that should be obtained by GAIA, the approved Cornerstone 6 mission by ESA. This study has two main objectives, namely (a) to derive reasonable orbits for a number of new eclipsing binaries and (b) to evaluate the expected performances by GAIA on eclipsing binaries and the accuracy achievable on the determination of fundamental stellar parameters like masses and radii. It is shown that a 1% precision in the basic stellar parameters can be achieved by GAIA on well observed detached eclipsing binaries provided that the spectroscopic observations are performed at high enough resolution. Other types of eclipsing binaries (including semi-detached and contact types) and different spectral types will be investigated in following papers along this series.Comment: A&A, 11 pages, 5 figures, 5 table