Towards Refining Alzheimer\u27s Disease into Overlapping Subgroups

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is an age-related neurodegenerative disorder characterized by progressive anterograde amnesia, cerebral atrophy, and eventual death. Current treatment has limited efficacy and cannot decelerate the disease progression. Clinical trials targeting the removal of the neuropathological hallmarks of AD, including accu- mulation of amyloid plaques or neurofibrillary tangles, have failed to modify disease progression. Without new or innovative hypotheses, AD is poised to become a public health crisis within this decade. We present an alternative hypothesis—that AD is the result of multiple interrelated causalities. The intention of this manuscript is to initiate a discussion regarding these multiple causalities and their overlapping similarities. The idea of creating subgroups allows for better identification of biomarkers across a narrower patient population for improved pharmacotherapeutic opportunities. The interrelatedness of many of these proposed subgroups indicates the complexity of this disorder. However, it also supports that no one single factor may initiate the cascade of events

Plasticity and rectangularity in survival curves

Living systems inevitably undergo a progressive deterioration of physiological function with age and an increase of vulnerability to disease and death. To maintain health and survival, living systems should optimize survival strategies with adaptive interactions among molecules, cells, organs, individuals, and environments, which arises plasticity in survival curves of living systems. In general, survival dynamics in a population is mathematically depicted by a survival rate, which monotonically changes from 1 to 0 with age. It would be then useful to find an adequate function to describe complicated survival dynamics. Here we describe a flexible survival function, derived from the stretched exponential function by adopting an age-dependent shaping exponent. We note that the exponent is associated with the fractal-like scaling in cumulative mortality rate. The survival function well depicts general features in survival curves; healthy populations exhibit plasticity and evolve towards rectangular-like survival curves, as examples in humans or laboratory animals

Mathematical modeling provides kinetic details of the human immune response to vaccination

With major advances in experimental techniques to track antigen-specific immune responses many basic questions on the kinetics of virus-specific immunity in humans remain unanswered. To gain insights into kinetics of T and B cell responses in human volunteers we combined mathematical models and experimental data from recent studies employing vaccines against yellow fever and smallpox. Yellow fever virus-specific CD8 T cell population expanded slowly with the average doubling time of 2 days peaking 2.5 weeks post immunization. Interestingly, we found that the peak of the yellow fever-specific CD8 T cell response was determined by the rate of T cell proliferation and not by the precursor frequency of antigen-specific cells as has been suggested in several studies in mice. We also found that while the frequency of virus-specific T cells increased slowly, the slow increase could still accurately explain clearance of yellow fever virus in the blood. Our additional mathematical model described well the kinetics of virus-specific antibody-secreting cell and antibody response to vaccinia virus in vaccinated individuals suggesting that most of antibodies in 3 months post immunization were derived from the population of circulating antibody-secreting cells. Taken together, our analysis provided novel insights into mechanisms by which live vaccines induce immunity to viral infections and highlighted challenges of applying methods of mathematical modeling to the current, state-of-the-art yet limited immunological data

Large-Scale Pathway-Based Analysis of Bladder Cancer Genome-Wide Association Data from Five Studies of European Background

Pathway analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) offer a unique opportunity to collectively evaluate genetic variants with effects that are too small to be detected individually. We applied a pathway analysis to a bladder cancer GWAS containing data from 3,532 cases and 5,120 controls of European background (n = 5 studies). Thirteen hundred and ninety-nine pathways were drawn from five publicly available resources (Biocarta, Kegg, NCI-PID, HumanCyc, and Reactome), and we constructed 22 additional candidate pathways previously hypothesized to be related to bladder cancer. In total, 1421 pathways, 5647 genes and ∼90,000 SNPs were included in our study. Logistic regression model adjusting for age, sex, study, DNA source, and smoking status was used to assess the marginal trend effect of SNPs on bladder cancer risk. Two complementary pathway-based methods (gene-set enrichment analysis [GSEA], and adapted rank-truncated product [ARTP]) were used to assess the enrichment of association signals within each pathway. Eighteen pathways were detected by either GSEA or ARTP at P≤0.01. To minimize false positives, we used the I2 statistic to identify SNPs displaying heterogeneous effects across the five studies. After removing these SNPs, seven pathways (‘Aromatic amine metabolism’ [PGSEA = 0.0100, PARTP = 0.0020], ‘NAD biosynthesis’ [PGSEA = 0.0018, PARTP = 0.0086], ‘NAD salvage’ [PARTP = 0.0068], ‘Clathrin derived vesicle budding’ [PARTP = 0.0018], ‘Lysosome vesicle biogenesis’ [PGSEA = 0.0023, PARTP<0.00012], ’Retrograde neurotrophin signaling’ [PGSEA = 0.00840], and ‘Mitotic metaphase/anaphase transition’ [PGSEA = 0.0040]) remained. These pathways seem to belong to three fundamental cellular processes (metabolic detoxification, mitosis, and clathrin-mediated vesicles). Identification of the aromatic amine metabolism pathway provides support for the ability of this approach to identify pathways with established relevance to bladder carcinogenesis

Circulating Levels of Insulin-like Growth Factor 1 and Insulin-like Growth Factor Binding Protein 3 Associate With Risk of Colorectal Cancer Based on Serologic and Mendelian Randomization Analyses

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Human studies examining associations between circulating levels of insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF1) and insulin-like growth factor binding protein 3 (IGFBP3) and colorectal cancer risk have reported inconsistent results. We conducted complementary serologic and Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to determine whether alterations in circulating levels of IGF1 or IGFBP3 are associated with colorectal cancer development. METHODS: Serum levels of IGF1 and other proteins were measured in blood samples collected from 397,380 participants from the UK Biobank, from 2006 through 2010. Incident cancer cases and cancer cases recorded first in death certificates were identified through linkage to national cancer and death registries. Complete follow-up was available through March 31, 2016. For the MR analyses, we identified genetic variants associated with circulating levels of IGF1 and IGFBP3. The association of these genetic variants with colorectal cancer was examined with 2-sample MR methods using genome-wide association study consortia data (52,865 cases with colorectal cancer and 46,287 individuals without [controls]) RESULTS: After a median follow-up period of 7.1 years, 2665 cases of colorectal cancer were recorded. In a multivariable-adjusted model, circulating level of IGF1 level associated with colorectal cancer risk (hazard ratio per 1 standard deviation increment of IGF1, 1.11; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-1.17). Similar associations were found by sex, follow-up time, and tumor subsite. In the MR analyses, a 1 standard deviation increment in IGF1 level, predicted based on genetic factors, was associated with a higher risk of colorectal cancer risk (odds ratio 1.08; 95% CI 1.03-1.12; P = 3.3 × 10-4). Level of IGFBP3, predicted based on genetic factors, was associated with colorectal cancer risk (odds ratio per 1 standard deviation increment, 1.12; 95% CI 1.06-1.18; P = 4.2 × 10-5). Colorectal cancer risk was associated with only 1 variant in IGFBP3 (rs11977526), which also associated with anthropometric traits and circulating level of IGF2. CONCLUSIONS: In an analysis of blood samples from almost 400,000 participants in the UK Biobank, we found an association between circulating level of IGF1 and colorectal cancer. Using genetic data from 52,865 cases with colorectal cancer and 46,287 controls, a higher level of IGF1, determined by genetic factors, was associated with colorectal cancer. Further studies are needed to determine how this signaling pathway might contribute to colorectal carcinogenesis

Evaluating Approaches for Constructing Polygenic Risk Scores for Prostate Cancer in Men of African and European Ancestry

Genome-wide polygenic risk scores (GW-PRSs) have been reported to have better predictive ability than PRSs based on genome-wide significance thresholds across numerous traits. We compared the predictive ability of several GW-PRS approaches to a recently developed PRS of 269 established prostate cancer-risk variants from multi-ancestry GWASs and fine-mapping studies (PRS269). GW-PRS models were trained with a large and diverse prostate cancer GWAS of 107,247 cases and 127,006 controls that we previously used to develop the multi-ancestry PRS269. Resulting models were independently tested in 1,586 cases and 1,047 controls of African ancestry from the California Uganda Study and 8,046 cases and 191,825 controls of European ancestry from the UK Biobank and further validated in 13,643 cases and 210,214 controls of European ancestry and 6,353 cases and 53,362 controls of African ancestry from the Million Veteran Program. In the testing data, the best performing GW-PRS approach had AUCs of 0.656 (95% CI = 0.635-0.677) in African and 0.844 (95% CI = 0.840-0.848) in European ancestry men and corresponding prostate cancer ORs of 1.83 (95% CI = 1.67-2.00) and 2.19 (95% CI = 2.14-2.25), respectively, for each SD unit increase in the GW-PRS. Compared to the GW-PRS, in African and European ancestry men, the PRS269 had larger or similar AUCs (AUC = 0.679, 95% CI = 0.659-0.700 and AUC = 0.845, 95% CI = 0.841-0.849, respectively) and comparable prostate cancer ORs (OR = 2.05, 95% CI = 1.87-2.26 and OR = 2.21, 95% CI = 2.16-2.26, respectively). Findings were similar in the validation studies. This investigation suggests that current GW-PRS approaches may not improve the ability to predict prostate cancer risk compared to the PRS269 developed from multi-ancestry GWASs and fine-mapping

Cumulative Burden of Colorectal Cancer-Associated Genetic Variants Is More Strongly Associated With Early-Onset vs Late-Onset Cancer.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Early-onset colorectal cancer (CRC, in persons younger than 50 years old) is increasing in incidence; yet, in the absence of a family history of CRC, this population lacks harmonized recommendations for prevention. We aimed to determine whether a polygenic risk score (PRS) developed from 95 CRC-associated common genetic risk variants was associated with risk for early-onset CRC. METHODS: We studied risk for CRC associated with a weighted PRS in 12,197 participants younger than 50 years old vs 95,865 participants 50 years or older. PRS was calculated based on single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with CRC in a large-scale genome-wide association study as of January 2019. Participants were pooled from 3 large consortia that provided clinical and genotyping data: the Colon Cancer Family Registry, the Colorectal Transdisciplinary Study, and the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium and were all of genetically defined European descent. Findings were replicated in an independent cohort of 72,573 participants. RESULTS: Overall associations with CRC per standard deviation of PRS were significant for early-onset cancer, and were stronger compared with late-onset cancer (P for interaction = .01); when we compared the highest PRS quartile with the lowest, risk increased 3.7-fold for early-onset CRC (95% CI 3.28-4.24) vs 2.9-fold for late-onset CRC (95% CI 2.80-3.04). This association was strongest for participants without a first-degree family history of CRC (P for interaction = 5.61 × 10-5). When we compared the highest with the lowest quartiles in this group, risk increased 4.3-fold for early-onset CRC (95% CI 3.61-5.01) vs 2.9-fold for late-onset CRC (95% CI 2.70-3.00). Sensitivity analyses were consistent with these findings. CONCLUSIONS: In an analysis of associations with CRC per standard deviation of PRS, we found the cumulative burden of CRC-associated common genetic variants to associate with early-onset cancer, and to be more strongly associated with early-onset than late-onset cancer, particularly in the absence of CRC family history. Analyses of PRS, along with environmental and lifestyle risk factors, might identify younger individuals who would benefit from preventive measures

International Impact of COVID-19 on the Diagnosis of Heart Disease

BACKGROUND The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has adversely affected diagnosis and treatment of noncommunicable diseases. Its effects on delivery of diagnostic care for cardiovascular disease, which remains the leading cause of death worldwide, have not been quantified.OBJECTIVES The study sought to assess COVID-19`s impact on global cardiovascular diagnostic procedural volumes and safety practices.METHODS The International Atomic Energy Agency conducted a worldwide survey assessing alterations in cardiovascular procedure volumes and safety practices resulting from COVID-19. Noninvasive and invasive cardiac testing volumes were obtained from participating sites for March and April 2020 and compared with those from March 2019. Availability of personal protective equipment and pandemic-related testing practice changes were ascertained.RESULTS Surveys were submitted from 909 inpatient and outpatient centers performing cardiac diagnostic procedures, in 108 countries. Procedure volumes decreased 42% from March 2019 to March 2020, and 64% from March 2019 to April 2020. Transthoradc echocardiography decreased by 59%, transesophageat echocardiography 76%, and stress tests 78%, which varied between stress modalities. Coronary angiography (invasive or computed tomography) decreased 55% (p &lt; 0.001 for each procedure). hi multivariable regression, significantly greater reduction in procedures occurred for centers in countries with lower gross domestic product. Location in a low-income and lower-middle-income country was associated with an additional 22% reduction in cardiac procedures and less availability of personal protective equipment and teteheatth.CONCLUSIONS COVID-19 was associated with a significant and abrupt reduction in cardiovascular diagnostic testing across the globe, especially affecting the world's economically challenged. Further study of cardiovascular outcomes and COVID-19-related changes in care delivery is warranted. (C) 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier on behalf of the American College of Cardiology Foundation

Impact of COVID-19 on cardiovascular testing in the United States versus the rest of the world

Objectives: This study sought to quantify and compare the decline in volumes of cardiovascular procedures between the United States and non-US institutions during the early phase of the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the care of many non-COVID-19 illnesses. Reductions in diagnostic cardiovascular testing around the world have led to concerns over the implications of reduced testing for cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality. Methods: Data were submitted to the INCAPS-COVID (International Atomic Energy Agency Non-Invasive Cardiology Protocols Study of COVID-19), a multinational registry comprising 909 institutions in 108 countries (including 155 facilities in 40 U.S. states), assessing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on volumes of diagnostic cardiovascular procedures. Data were obtained for April 2020 and compared with volumes of baseline procedures from March 2019. We compared laboratory characteristics, practices, and procedure volumes between U.S. and non-U.S. facilities and between U.S. geographic regions and identified factors associated with volume reduction in the United States. Results: Reductions in the volumes of procedures in the United States were similar to those in non-U.S. facilities (68% vs. 63%, respectively; p = 0.237), although U.S. facilities reported greater reductions in invasive coronary angiography (69% vs. 53%, respectively; p < 0.001). Significantly more U.S. facilities reported increased use of telehealth and patient screening measures than non-U.S. facilities, such as temperature checks, symptom screenings, and COVID-19 testing. Reductions in volumes of procedures differed between U.S. regions, with larger declines observed in the Northeast (76%) and Midwest (74%) than in the South (62%) and West (44%). Prevalence of COVID-19, staff redeployments, outpatient centers, and urban centers were associated with greater reductions in volume in U.S. facilities in a multivariable analysis. Conclusions: We observed marked reductions in U.S. cardiovascular testing in the early phase of the pandemic and significant variability between U.S. regions. The association between reductions of volumes and COVID-19 prevalence in the United States highlighted the need for proactive efforts to maintain access to cardiovascular testing in areas most affected by outbreaks of COVID-19 infection