Representing future urban and regional scenarios for flood hazard mitigation

In this paper we analyse urban and regional growth trends by using dynamic spatial models. The objective of this approach is twofold: on the one hand to monitor sustainable development trends and on the other hand to assess flood risk in urban areas. We propose the use of future urban scenarios in order to forecast the effects of urban and regional planning policies. In the last 20 years the extent of built-up areas in Europe has increased by 20%, exceeding clearly the 6% rate of population growth over the same period. This trend contributes to unsustainable development patterns, and moreover, the exposure to natural hazards is increasing in large regions of Europe. The paper is organised in two parts. In the first part we analyse a study case in Friuli-Venezia Giulia (FVG) Region in northern Italy. We analyse several spatial indicators in the form of maps describing population growth and patterns, and the historical growth of built-up areas. Then we show the results of a dynamic spatial model for simulating land use scenarios. The model is based on a spatial dynamics bottom-up approach, and can be defined as a cellular automata (CA)-based model. Future urban scenarios are produced by taking into account several factors –e.g. land use development, population growth or spatial planning policies–. Urban simulations offer a useful approach to understanding the consequences of current spatial planning policies. Inappropriate regional and urban planning can exacerbate the negative effects of extreme hydrological processes. Good land management and planning practices, including appropriate land use and development control in flood-prone areas, represent suitable non-structural solutions to minimise flood damages. The overall effects of these measures in terms of both sustainable development and flood defence can be quantified with the proposed modelling approach. In the second part of the paper we show some preliminary results of a pilot study case. Two future simulations produced by the model were used for a flood risk assessment in Pordenone (one of the four provinces of FVG). In the last 100 years Pordenone has suffered several floods. The two major events were the heavy floods of 1966 (100-year flood event; >500 mm of rain in 36 hours) and 2002 (up to 580 mm of rain in 36 hours). The disastrous consequences of those heavy floods have shown how vulnerable this area is. The flood risk analysis is based on a hydrological hazard map for the Livenza River catchment area, provided by the regional Water Authority. That map covers most of flood hazard areas of Pordenone province. Early results of this study show that the main driving force of natural disasters damage is not only increasing flood hazard, but increasing vulnerability, mainly due to urbanisation in flood prone areas.

An indicator framework for assessing ecosystem services in support of the EU Biodiversity Strategy to 2020

Maes, Joachim... et al.-- 10 pages, 2 figures, 3 tables, supplementary material https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2015.10.023In the EU, the mapping and assessment of ecosystems and their services, abbreviated to MAES, is seen as a key action for the advancement of biodiversity objectives, and also to inform the development and implementation of related policies on water, climate, agriculture, forest, marine and regional planning. In this study, we present the development of an analytical framework which ensures that consistent approaches are used throughout the EU. It is framed by a broad set of key policy questions and structured around a conceptual framework that links human societies and their well-being with the environment. Next, this framework is tested through four thematic pilot studies, including stakeholders and experts working at different scales and governance levels, which contributed indicators to assess the state of ecosystem services. Indicators were scored according to different criteria and assorted per ecosystem type and ecosystem services using the common international classification of ecosystem services (CICES) as typology. We concluded that there is potential to develop a first EU wide ecosystem assessment on the basis of existing data if they are combined in a creative way. However, substantial data gaps remain to be filled before a fully integrated and complete ecosystem assessment can be carried outBalint Czúcz was supported by the Bolyai Grant of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences under grant number BO/00138/12/8Peer Reviewe

European Regional Energy Balance and Innovation Landscape (EREBILAND) - Energy demand of buildings. Deliverable 4: Case Studies of Optimisation

The Exploratory Project EREBILAND (European Regional Energy Balance and Innovation Landscape) aims at supporting efficient patterns of regional energy supply and demand in Europe. Integration of spatial scales, from EU-wide to regional or local, and a cross-sector approach, are at the core of the project. Energy targets are set at European level, but their realisation requires an implementation strategy that is tailored at EU Member States and regional level. National and regional specificities have to be taken on board when defining the priority of intervention for different sectors, from restructuring the energy sector to setting up efficiency targets for different categories of energy users. The purpose of the EREBILAND project is to: • provide an overview of the current trends of regional energy production and consumption patterns, and • link these patterns to the structural characteristics of the regions, among which: population density and urbanisation trends, development of different economic sectors, and availability of resources and technological infrastructure. Energy spent in buildings represents a large share of the overall energy consumption in the EU-28 (40% of total final energy consumption and around 55% of electricity consumption in 2012). The consumption depends on the functional and structural characteristics of buildings. It is also influenced by other factors such as location and climate. This document describes a methodological approach developed as part of the EREBILAND project to estimate the energy demand of buildings at the local scale. It also provides and update on datasets compiled as part of the project and presents provisional results for two regional case-studies in Italy and the Netherlands.JRC.B.3-Territorial Developmen

Downscaling methodology to produce a high resolution gridded emission inventory to support local/city level air quality policies

This report aims to introduce a Top Down emission inventory covering the EU28 domain developed with the goal of supporting integrated assessment modelling strategies (IAM) in the fields of regional air-quality, land use and territorial modelling. The high resolution JRC inventory is based on country total emission data derived from the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies Model (GAINS) set for reaching the targets under the assumptions of the 2013 Air Quality package review. The JRC inventory provides emissions for a wide array of sectors from year 2010 up to 2030 and covers NOx, SO2, VOC, PM10, PM2.5 and NH3. It is developed at 100m spatial resolution and is currently distributed at 1/8o x 1/8o degrees resolution. In order to spatially distribute emissions, specific spatial layers, models output or statistical dataset which better reproduce the expected spatial patterns of emissions are selected for each sector. The choices made in terms of calibration of these spatial proxies are also introduced and discussed.JRC.C.5-Air and Climat

Exploring the feasibility of applying the Land Use Modelling Platform outside the EU. Preliminary estimates of the global demand for urban land

This technical note aims to present the progresses done towards the evaluation of the possible application of the Land Use Modelling Platform in a global context or anyhow outside the geographical borders of Europe. The definition and computation of demands for land-uses are the first element to be appraised since are essential inputs for the modelling platform. The note describes the methodology adopted to compute the demand for urban land (this includes land uses related to residences, leisure facilities and small commercial and industrial activities) in 10 region worldwide according to a set of different scenarios of demographic exspansion.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

Indicators of urban form and sustainable urban transport: Introducing simulation-based indicators for the LUISA modelling platform

Sustainable urban transport is a key objective of European Commission policies and often an integral part of debates on good and bad urban form. Because of the expected relation between sustainable transport and urban form, indicators that communicate transport sustainability impacts have repeatedly been requested for the LUISA modelling platform. This report presents three novel indicators that may shed some light on potential transport sustainability impacts of modelled future urbanization patterns. These indicators are: 1) A measure that indicates for every inhabited 1 km grid cell in Europe the average Euclidean distance travelled for social visits, given a number of assumptions and methodological limitations; 2) A measure that indicates how many vehicle kilometres are travelled in any road-carrying grid cell in Europe; and 3) A measure that indicates to what degree the population distribution in a city is supportive for an effective public transport system. Because of methodological limitations and data availability all presented indicators are based on simulation exercises that take into account only fine resolution population distributions and transport supply. Thus these indicators can give insight into the degree in which management of urban growth may encourage sustainable transport. The report presents the indicators at hand and some first results in which the emphasis is put on differences between European cities. The report’s conclusions reflect on the usefulness of the indicators for policy evaluations, and on research that will have to be done in the future.JRC.H.8 - Sustainability Assessmen

Towards urban un-sustainability in Europe? An indicator-based analysis

In this article we analyse the relationship between urban land use development and population density in fifteen European urban areas. In the last 20 years the extent of built-up areas in Europe has increased by 20%, exceeding clearly the 6% rate of population growth over the same period. This is one of the consequences of unsustainable development patterns in large areas of Europe. In order to illustrate such unsustainable process we show five sets of indicators on built-up areas, residential land use, land taken by urban expansion, population density and how the population takes up the built-up space.The results show that analysing urban land use development necessitates the use of complementary indicators. The built-up areas have grown considerably in a sample of 15 European cities. The most rapid growth dates back to 1950s and 1960s. The annual growth pace has slowed down in the 1990s to 0.75 %. In half of the studied cities over 90% of all new housing areas built after the mid-1950s are discontinuous urban developments. This trend is increasing the use of private car and fragmentation of natural areas among others negative effects. When putting these findings into the context of stable or decreasing urban population, it is clear that the structure of most of European cities has become less compact, which demonstrates a de-centralisation process of urban land uses. We close by discussing on one hand the common urban land use and population density trends and on the other hand differences between the studied cities. Although most studied urban areas have experienced dispersed growth, as a result of the analysis we divide the cities in three groups: - compact cities,- cities with looser structures and lower densities,- and cities in the midway between the extremes.

Towards an Integrated Assessment of Climate Change-Induced Sea-Level Rise in the Baltic Sea: An Example for the City of Pärnu (Estonia)

In this report we address the topic of integrated assessment of climate change impacts in the Baltic Sea area and estimation of their possible negative effects on the city of Pärnu (Estonia). Pärnu is a health resort and port located on the coast of Pärnu Bay. The considerably low elevation (about 10 metres above sea-level) makes Pärnu city extremely vulnerable to flood events. Several issues are covered in order to give a complete picture about the driving forces and processes involved. The outputs of regional climate models and sea level rise scenarios used in order to estimate magnitude and extend of climate change effects in the future. The application of cellular automata (CA) -based spatial modeling tool –MOLAND- made use to estimate what structural impact climate change might have in regards to local development alternatives. It may be feasible for studies of local adaptation in order to estimate the feedback of mitigation policies over planning horizon of several decades.JRC.H.7-Land management and natural hazard

Population estimation for the Urban Atlas Polygons

The aim of this technical note is to describe the methodology and source data used to estimate the residential population in each built-up polygon of the Urban Atlas land use/cover dataset. The final outcome of the procedure is a new attribute to the Urban Atlas polygons that will broaden the range of uses of the Urban Atlas dataset, contributing to new analysis and assessments in different thematic fields, e.g. urban quality of life (accessibility to recreational areas; exposure to sources of noise); urban morphology (population density gradients).JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

Methods for Regional Integrated Assessment: High resolution gridded emission distribution in the LUISA Platform

This report illustrates the progresses made towards the inclusion of air quality related issues in the Land Use-based Integrated Sustainability Assessment (LUISA) platform. It focuses on the description of the methodology to derive high-resolution gridded-emission spatially geo-referenced layers from outputs and datasets integrated in LUISA. In the framework of the integration of the Regional Integrated Assessment Tool (RIAT model) and the Land Use Modelling Integrated Sustainability Assessment (LUISA) platform, we implemented the downscaling of atmospheric emission data from national level to very high spatial resolution (100m). The GAINS model (IIASA) provides the input emission data for different scenarios, up to year 2030, which are disaggregated based on 34 different surrogates. Each surrogate is calculated by means of the integration of several proxies derived by statistical datasets, ancillary models and GIS layers in the framework of the LUISA platform. The preliminary results for NOx, PM10 and NH3 (year 2010) are presented in this report together with their first assessment, based on existing emission maps at 7 and 10 Km resolution. Future steps for further refinements are also discussed.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen