400 predictions: the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook 2008–2015

Each Arctic summer since 2008, the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) has invited researchers and the engaged public to contribute predictions regarding the September extent of Arctic sea ice. The public character of SIO, focused on a number whose true value soon becomes known, brings elements of constructive gamification and transparency to the science process. We analyze the performance of more than 400 predictions from SIO’s first eight years, testing for differences in ensemble skill across years, months and five types of method: heuristic, statistical, mixed, and ice-ocean or ice-ocean-atmosphere modeling. Results highlight a pattern of easy and difficult years, corresponding roughly to the distinction between climate and weather. Difficult years, in which most predictions are far from the observed extent, tend to have large positive or negative excursions from the overall downward trends. In contrast to these large interannual effects, ensemble improvement from June to July and August is modest. Among method types, predictions based on statistics and ice-ocean-atmosphere modeling perform better. Thinning ice that is sensitive to summer weather, complicating prediction, reflects our transitional era between a past Arctic cool enough to retain much thick, resistant multiyear ice; and a warmed future Arctic where little ice remains at summer’s end

Assessing students' skills at writing analytically in response to texts

Despite the importance of writing analytically in response to texts, there are few assessments measuring students' mastery of this skill. This manuscript describes the development of a response-to-text assessment (RTA) intended for use in research. In a subsequent validity investigation we examined whether the RTA distinguished among classrooms in students' ability to write analytically in response to text and whether measures of teaching predicted this variation. We demonstrate that the RTA was correlated with the state standardized assessment, but did not overlap with this accountability test completely and, additionally, that more variation between classrooms existed on the RTA. Students' opportunities for reasoning and extended writing in the classroom were significantly associated with RTA scores. The findings suggest that the RTA can be a valuable tool for conducting research on students' attainment of analytic writing skills and for understanding how teaching relates to student achievement on these skills. © 2013 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved

Combining Multiple Measures of Students' Opportunities to Develop Analytic, Text-Based Writing Skills

Guided by evidence that teachers contribute to student achievement outcomes, researchers have been reexamining how to study instruction and the classroom opportunities teachers create for students. We describe our experience measuring students' opportunities to develop analytic, text-based writing skills. Utilizing multiple methods of data collection-writing assignment tasks, daily logs, and an annual survey-we generated a composite that was used in prediction models to examine multivariate outcomes, including scores on a state accountability test and a project-developed response-to-text assessment. Our findings demonstrate that students' opportunities to develop analytic, text-based writing skills predicted classroom performance on the project-developed response-to-text assessment. We discuss the importance of considering the measure(s) of learning when examining teaching-learning associations as well as implications for combining multiple measures for purposes of better construct representation. © 2012 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC

An investigation of factors associated with the health and well-being of HIV-infected or HIV-affected older people in rural South Africa

BackgroundDespite the severe impact of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, the health of older people aged 50+ is often overlooked owing to the dearth of data on the direct and indirect effects of HIV on older people's health status and well-being. The aim of this study was to examine correlates of health and well-being of HIV-infected older people relative to HIV-affected people in rural South Africa, defined as participants with an HIV-infected or death of an adult child due to HIV-related cause. MethodsData were collected within the Africa Centre surveillance area using instruments adapted from the World Health Organization (WHO) Study on global AGEing and adult health (SAGE). A stratified random sample of 422 people aged 50+ participated. We compared the health correlates of HIV-infected to HIV-affected participants using ordered logistic regressions. Health status was measured using three instruments: disability index, quality of life and composite health score. ResultsMedian age of the sample was 60 years (range 50-94). Women HIV-infected (aOR 0.15, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.08-0.29) and HIV-affected (aOR 0.20, 95% CI 0.08-0.50), were significantly less likely than men to be in good functional ability. Women's adjusted odds of being in good overall health state were similarly lower than men's; while income and household wealth status were stronger correlates of quality of life. HIV-infected participants reported better functional ability, quality of life and overall health state than HIV-affected participants. Discussion and Conclusions The enhanced healthcare received as part of anti-retroviral treatment as well as the considerable resources devoted to HIV care appear to benefit the overall well-being of HIV-infected older people; whereas similar resources have not been devoted to the general health needs of HIV uninfected older people. Given increasing numbers of older people, policy and programme interventions are urgently needed to holistically meet the health and well-being needs of older people beyond the HIV-related care system. <br/

Atomic structures of TDP-43 LCD segments and insights into reversible or pathogenic aggregation.

The normally soluble TAR DNA-binding protein 43 (TDP-43) is found aggregated both in reversible stress granules and in irreversible pathogenic amyloid. In TDP-43, the low-complexity domain (LCD) is believed to be involved in both types of aggregation. To uncover the structural origins of these two modes of β-sheet-rich aggregation, we have determined ten structures of segments of the LCD of human TDP-43. Six of these segments form steric zippers characteristic of the spines of pathogenic amyloid fibrils; four others form LARKS, the labile amyloid-like interactions characteristic of protein hydrogels and proteins found in membraneless organelles, including stress granules. Supporting a hypothetical pathway from reversible to irreversible amyloid aggregation, we found that familial ALS variants of TDP-43 convert LARKS to irreversible aggregates. Our structures suggest how TDP-43 adopts both reversible and irreversible β-sheet aggregates and the role of mutation in the possible transition of reversible to irreversible pathogenic aggregation

High prevalence of trypanosomes in European badgers detected using ITS-PCR.

BACKGROUND: Wildlife can be important sources and reservoirs for pathogens. Trypanosome infections are common in many mammalian species, and are pathogenic in some. Molecular detection tools were used to measure trypanosome prevalence in a well-studied population of wild European badgers (Meles meles). FINDINGS: A nested ITS-PCR system, that targeted the ribosomal RNA gene locus, has been widely used to detect pathogenic human and animal trypanosomes in domestic animals in Africa and some wildlife hosts. Samples from a long-term DEFRA funded capture-mark-recapture study of wild badgers at Woodchester Park (Gloucestershire, SW England) were investigated for trypanosome prevalence. A total of 82 badger blood samples were examined by nested ITS-PCR. Twenty-nine of the samples were found to be positive for trypanosomes giving a prevalence of 35.4 % (25.9 % - 46.2 %; 95 % CI). Infection was not found to be linked to badger condition, sex or age. Analysis of DNA sequence data showed the badgers to be infected with Trypanosoma (Megatrypanum) pestanai and phylogenetic analysis showed the Woodchester badger trypanosomes and T. pestanai to cluster in the Megatrypanum clade. CONCLUSIONS: The results show that the ITS Nested PCR is an effective tool for diagnosing trypanosome infection in badgers and suggests that it could be widely used in wildlife species with unknown trypanosomes or mixed infections. The relatively high prevalence observed in these badgers raises the possibility that a significant proportion of UK badgers are naturally infected with trypanosomes

The impact of parenthood on environmental attitudes and behaviour: a longitudinal investigation of the legacy hypothesis

Willingness to engage in sustainable actions may be limited by the psychological distance of climate change. In this study, we test the legacy hypothesis, which holds that having children leads parents to consider the legacy left to offspring in respect of environmental quality. Using the Understanding Society dataset, a longitudinal survey representative of the UK population (n = 18,176), we assess how having children may change people’s individual environmental attitudes and behaviour. Results indicate that having a new child is associated with a small decrease in the frequency of a few environmental behaviours. Only parents with already high environmental concern show a small increase in the desire to act more sustainably after the birth of their first child. Overall, the results do not provide evidence in support of the legacy hypothesis in terms of individual-level environmental attitudes and behaviours. We argue that the transition to parenthood is a time where concern is prioritised on the immediate wellbeing of the child and not on the future environmental threats

Behavioral responses to injury and death in wild Barbary macaques (Macaca sylvanus)

The wounding or death of a conspecific has been shown to elicit varied behavioral responses throughout thanatology. Recently, a number of reports have presented contentious evidence of epimeletic behavior towards the dying and dead among non-human animals, a behavioral trait previously considered uniquely human. Here, we report on the behavioral responses of Barbary macaques, a social, non-human primate, to the deaths of four group members (one high-ranking adult female, one high-ranking adult male, one juvenile male, and one female infant), all caused by road traffic accidents. Responses appeared to vary based on the nature of the death (protracted or instant) and the age class of the deceased. Responses included several behaviors with potential adaptive explanations or consequences. These included exploration, caretaking (guarding, carrying, and grooming), and proximity to wounded individuals or corpses, and immediate as well as longer-lasting distress behaviors from other group members following death, all of which have been reported in other non-human primate species. These observations add to a growing body of comparative evolutionary analysis of primate thanatology and help to highlight the multifaceted impacts of human-induced fatalities on an endangered and socially complex primate. © 2016, Japan Monkey Centre and Springer Japan

Cytogerontology since 1881: A reappraisal of August Weismann and a review of modern progress

Cytogerontology, the science of cellular ageing, originated in 1881 with the prediction by August Weismann that the somatic cells of higher animals have limited division potential. Weismann's prediction was derived by considering the role of natural selection in regulating the duration of an organism's life. For various reasons, Weismann's ideas on ageing fell into neglect following his death in 1914, and cytogerontology has only reappeared as a major research area following the demonstration by Hayflick and Moorhead in the early 1960s that diploid human fibroblasts are restricted to a finite number of divisions in vitro. In this review we give a detailed account of Weismann's theory, and we reveal that his ideas were both more extensive in their scope and more pertinent to current research than is generally recognised. We also appraise the progress which has been made over the past hundred years in investigating the causes of ageing, with particular emphasis being given to (i) the evolution of ageing, and (ii) ageing at the cellular level. We critically assess the current state of knowledge in these areas and recommend a series of points as primary targets for future research

Future therapeutic targets in rheumatoid arthritis?

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic inflammatory disease characterized by persistent joint inflammation. Without adequate treatment, patients with RA will develop joint deformity and progressive functional impairment. With the implementation of treat-to-target strategies and availability of biologic therapies, the outcomes for patients with RA have significantly improved. However, the unmet need in the treatment of RA remains high as some patients do not respond sufficiently to the currently available agents, remission is not always achieved and refractory disease is not uncommon. With better understanding of the pathophysiology of RA, new therapeutic approaches are emerging. Apart from more selective Janus kinase inhibition, there is a great interest in the granulocyte macrophage-colony stimulating factor pathway, Bruton's tyrosine kinase pathway, phosphoinositide-3-kinase pathway, neural stimulation and dendritic cell-based therapeutics. In this review, we will discuss the therapeutic potential of these novel approaches