Fixed Effect Estimation of Large T Panel Data Models

This article reviews recent advances in fixed effect estimation of panel data models for long panels, where the number of time periods is relatively large. We focus on semiparametric models with unobserved individual and time effects, where the distribution of the outcome variable conditional on covariates and unobserved effects is specified parametrically, while the distribution of the unobserved effects is left unrestricted. Compared to existing reviews on long panels (Arellano and Hahn 2007; a section in Arellano and Bonhomme 2011) we discuss models with both individual and time effects, split-panel Jackknife bias corrections, unbalanced panels, distribution and quantile effects, and other extensions. Understanding and correcting the incidental parameter bias caused by the estimation of many fixed effects is our main focus, and the unifying theme is that the order of this bias is given by the simple formula p/n for all models discussed, with p the number of estimated parameters and n the total sample size.Comment: 40 pages, 1 tabl

A search for diffuse bands in the circumstellar envelopes of post-AGB stars

In this work we present the results of a systematic search for diffuse bands (DBs, hereafter) in the circumstellar envelopes of a carefully selected sample of post-AGB stars. We concentrated on the analysis of 9 of the DBs most commonly found in the interstellar medium. The strength of these features is determined using high resolution optical spectroscopy and the results obtained are compared with literature data on field stars affected only by interstellar reddening. Based on the weak features observed in the subsample of post-AGB stars dominated by circumstellar reddening we conclude that the carrier(s) of these DBs must not be present in the circumstellar environment of these sources, or at least not under the excitation conditions in which DBs are formed. The conclusion is applicable to all the post-AGB stars studied, irrespective of the dominant chemistry or the spectral type of the star considered. A detailed radial velocity analysis of the features observed in individual sources confirms this result, as the Doppler shifts measured are found to be consistent with an interstellar origin.Comment: Accepted for A&

ISO spectroscopy of disks around Herbig Ae/Be stars

We have investigated the infrared spectra of all 46 Herbig Ae/Be stars for which spectroscopic data is available in the ISO data archive. Our quantitative analysis of these spectra focusses on the emission bands linked to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), the amorphous 10 micron silicate band and the crystalline silicate band at 11.3 micron. We have detected PAH emission in 57% of the Herbig stars in our sample. Clear examples of differences in the PAH spectra are present within our sample, indicating differences in PAH size, chemistry and/or ionization. Amorphous silicate emission was detected in the spectra of 52% of the sample stars, amorphous silicate absorption in 13%. We have detected crystalline silicate emission in 11 stars (24% of our sample), of which four (9%) also display strong PAH emission. We have classified the sample sources according to the strength of their mid-IR energy distribution. The systems with stronger mid-infared (20-100 um) excesses relative to their near-infrared (1-5 um) excess display significantly more PAH emission than those with weaker mid-infrared excesses. This provides strong observational support for the disk models by Dullemond (2002), in which systems with a flaring disk geometry display a strong mid-infrared excess, whereas those with disks that are strongly shadowed by the puffed-up inner rim of the disk only display modest amounts of mid-infrared emission. The PAH emission is expected to be produced mainly in the part of the disk atmosphere that is directly exposed to radiation from the central star. In this model, self-shadowed disks should display weaker PAH emission than flared disks, consistent with our observations.Comment: 27 pages, 26 figures, A&A accepted (22/06/2004

Pulsational instability of yellow hypergiants

Instability of population I (X=0.7, Y=0.02) massive stars against radial oscillations during the post-main sequence gravitational contraction of the helium core is investigated. Initial stellar masses are in the range from 65M_\odot to 90M_\odot. In hydrodynamic computations of self-exciting stellar oscillations we assumed that energy transfer in the envelope of the pulsating star is due to radiative heat conduction and convection. The convective heat transfer was treated in the framework of the theory of time-dependent turbulent convection. During evolutionary expansion of outer layers after hydrogen exhaustion in the stellar core the star is shown to be unstable against radial oscillations while its effective temperature is Teff > 6700K for Mzams=65M_\odot and Teff > 7200K for mzams=90M_\odot. Pulsational instability is due to the \kappa-mechanism in helium ionization zones and at lower effective temperature oscillations decay because of significantly increasing convection. The upper limit of the period of radial pulsations on this stage of evolution does not exceed 200 day. Radial oscillations of the hypergiant resume during evolutionary contraction of outer layers when the effective temperature is Teff > 7300K for Mzams=65M_\odot and Teff > 7600K for Mzams=90M_\odot. Initially radial oscillations are due to instability of the first overtone and transition to fundamental mode pulsations takes place at higher effective temperatures (Teff > 7700K for Mzams=65M_\odot and Teff > 8200K for Mzams=90M_\odot). The upper limit of the period of radial oscillations of evolving blueward yellow hypergiants does not exceed 130 day. Thus, yellow hypergiants are stable against radial stellar pulsations during the major part of their evolutionary stage.Comment: 20 pages, 7 gigures. Accepted for publication in Astronomy Letter

Adapting to changes in volcanic behaviour: Formal and informal interactions for enhanced risk management at Tungurahua Volcano, Ecuador

This paper provides an example of how communities can adapt to extreme forms of environmental change and uncertainty over the longer term. We analyse the interactions between scientists, communities and risk managers and examine the interpretation and communication of uncertain scientific information during a long-lived volcanic eruption in Tungurahua, Ecuador. This is complemented with a detailed study of the eruptions of 2006 and 2014, which exemplifies the complexity of interactions during periods of heightened volcanic activity. Our study describes how a ‘shadow network’ has developed outside of, but in interaction with, the formal risk management institutions in Ecuador, improving decision-making in response to heightened volcanic activity. The findings suggest that the interactions have facilitated important adaptations in the scientific advisory response during eruptions (near-real-time interpretation of the volcanic hazards), in hazard communication, and in the evacuation processes. Improved communication between stakeholders and the establishment of thresholds for evacuations have created an effective voluntary evacuation system unique to Tungurahua, allowing people to continue to maintain their livelihoods during heightened volcanic activity and associated periods of uncertainty. Understanding how shadow networks act to minimise the negative consequences of volcanic activity provides valuable insights for increasing societal resilience to other types of hazards

HD 172189: another step in furnishing one of the best laboratories known for asteroseismic studies

HD 172189 is a spectroscopic eclipsing binary system with a rapidly-rotating pulsating δ Scuti component. It is also a member of the open cluster IC 4756. These combined characteristics make it an excellent laboratory for asteroseismic studies. To date, HD 172189 has been analysed in detail photometrically but not spectroscopically. For this reason we have compiled a set of spectroscopic data to determine the absolute and atmospheric parameters of the components. We determined the radial velocities (RV) of both components using four different techniques. We disentangled the binary spectra using KOREL, and performed the first abundance analysis on both disentangled spectra. By combining the spectroscopic results and the photometric data, we obtained the component masses, 1.8 and 1.7 Mȯ, and radii, 4.0 and 2.4 Rȯ, for inclination i = 73.2°, eccentricity e = 0.28, and orbital period Π = 5.70198 days. Effective temperatures of 7600 K and 8100 K were also determined. The measured v sin i are 78 and 74 km s-1, respectively, giving rotational periods of 2.50 and 1.55 days for the components. The abundance analysis shows [Fe/H] = -0.28 for the primary (pulsating) star, consistent with observations of IC 4756. We also present an assessment of the different analysis techniques used to obtain the RVs and the global parameters

Similarities and differences in the historical records of lava dome-building volcanoes: implications for understanding magmatic processes and eruption forecasting

A key question for volcanic hazard assessment is the extent to which information can be exchanged between volcanoes. This question is particularly pertinent to hazard forecasting for dome-building volcanoes, where effusive activity may persist for years to decades, and may be punctuated by periods of repose, and sudden explosive activity. Here we review historical eruptive activity of fifteen lava dome-building volcanoes over the past two centuries, with the goal of creating a hierarchy of exchangeable (i.e., similar) behaviours. Eruptive behaviour is classified using empirical observations that include patterns of SO2 flux, eruption style, and magma composition. We identify two eruptive regimes: (i) an episodic regime where eruptions are much shorter than intervening periods of repose, and degassing is temporally correlated with lava effusion; and (ii) a persistent regime where eruptions are comparable in length to periods of repose and gas emissions do not correlate with eruption rates. A corollary to these two eruptive regimes is that there are also two different types of repose: (i) inter-eruptive repose separates episodic eruptions, and is characterised by negligible gas emissions and (ii) intra-eruptive repose is observed in persistently active volcanoes, and is characterised by continuous gas emissions. We suggest that these different patterns of can be used to infer vertical connectivity within mush-dominated magmatic systems. We also note that our recognition of two different types of repose raises questions about traditional definitions of historical volcanism as a point process. This is important, because the ontology of eruptive activity (that is, the definition of volcanic activity in time) influences both analysis of volcanic data and, by extension, interpretations of magmatic processes. Our analysis suggests that one identifying exchangeable traits or behaviours provides a starting point for developing robust ontologies of volcanic activity. Moreover, by linking eruptive regimes to conceptual models of magmatic processes, we illustrate a path towards developing a conceptual framework not only for comparing data between different volcanoes but also for improving forecasts of eruptive activity

Type 2 Diabetes Variants Disrupt Function of SLC16A11 through Two Distinct Mechanisms

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) affects Latinos at twice the rate seen in populations of European descent. We recently identified a risk haplotype spanning SLC16A11 that explains ∼20% of the increased T2D prevalence in Mexico. Here, through genetic fine-mapping, we define a set of tightly linked variants likely to contain the causal allele(s). We show that variants on the T2D-associated haplotype have two distinct effects: (1) decreasing SLC16A11 expression in liver and (2) disrupting a key interaction with basigin, thereby reducing cell-surface localization. Both independent mechanisms reduce SLC16A11 function and suggest SLC16A11 is the causal gene at this locus. To gain insight into how SLC16A11 disruption impacts T2D risk, we demonstrate that SLC16A11 is a proton-coupled monocarboxylate transporter and that genetic perturbation of SLC16A11 induces changes in fatty acid and lipid metabolism that are associated with increased T2D risk. Our findings suggest that increasing SLC16A11 function could be therapeutically beneficial for T2D. Video Abstract [Figure presented] Keywords: type 2 diabetes (T2D); genetics; disease mechanism; SLC16A11; MCT11; solute carrier (SLC); monocarboxylates; fatty acid metabolism; lipid metabolism; precision medicin

Does Foreign Direct Investment Stimulate New Firm Creation? In Search of Spillovers through Industrial and Geographical Linkages

This paper examines the spillover effects of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) on the entrepreneurial activities of new firm creation through both industrial and geographical linkages. Using a dataset of 44,434 newly created small firms in 234 regions of South Korea in 2000–2004, this study finds that while the spillover impacts of FDI in the low-tech industry are positive and significant across almost all four possible combinations of the intra-/inter-regional and intra-/inter-sectoral channels, the impacts in the high-tech industry are largely intra-sectoral within the host region and across neighboring regions. Moreover, all statistically significant spillover effects follow an inverted ‘U’-shaped curvilinear trend

Multicomponent Ni-CeO2 nanocatalysts for syngas production from CO2/CH4 mixtures

The dry reforming of methane with CO2 is a common route to transform CO2/CH4 mixtures into added value syngas. Ni based catalysts are highly active for this goal but suffer from deactivation, as such promoters need to be introduced to counteract this, and improve performance. In this study, mono- and bi-metallic formulations based on 10 wt.% Ni/CeO2-Al2O3 are explored and compared to a reference 10 wt.% Ni/γ-Al2O3. The effect of Sn and Pt as promoters of Ni/CeO2-Al2O3 was also investigated. The formulation promoted with Sn looked especially promising, showing CO2 conversions stabilising at 65% after highs of 95%. Its increased performance is attributed to the additional dispersion Sn promotion causes. Changes in the reaction conditions (space velocity and temperature) cement this idea, with the Ni-Sn/CeAl material performing superiorly to the mono-metallic material, showing less deactivation. However, in the long run it is noted that the mono-metallic Ni/CeAl performs better. As such the application is key when deciding which catalyst to employ in the dry reforming process.EPSRC under the projects EP/R512904/1 and EP/K036548/2Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (ENE2015-66975- C3-2-R) co-financed by FEDER funds from the European UnionJunta de Andalucía (TEP-8196) co-financed by FEDER funds from the European Unio