Participatory simulations of competing aquacultural and agricultural land uses in bac lieu province, Mekong Delta, Vietnam

Rice and black tiger shrimp (Penaeus monodon) are produced in coastal area of the Mekong, Vietnam under different patterns depending on biophysical and social economic conditions. In the north part of Bac Lieu province in the Mekong Delta, competitions for land used among these farming systems have been appeared. Rice and shrimp rotation farming has been gradually encroached by shrimp monoculture due to its higher economic return. Monoculture of shrimp in a large scale however would hardly reach sustainability. This study aims to make explicit the criteria used by local producers in choosing their land use. To collectively discuss about these criteria and to build a common understanding of this complex agro-hydro system, we have been using role-playing games (RPGs). Three RPG sessions have been organized in three selected villages in Bac Lieu coastal province in the Mekong Delta (i) to understand the competition of land used between rice and shrimp production at a village level; (ii) to understand decision making of farmers under complex biophysical and socio-economic conditions. By playing their own role during a RPG session, local farmers are embedded in participatory simulation. Following the companion modeling approach, the next methodological step will consist in implementing an agent-based model to formalize the shared representation that was built during RPG sessions. Local farmers are then expected to be comfortable in following and discussing computer simulations as they will be able to relate the "agent-based simulations" to what they have experienced as participants of "players-based simulations" (the RPG sessions). (Résumé d'auteur

Using Social Simulation to Explore the Dynamics at Stake in Participatory Research

This position paper contributes to the debate on perspectives for simulating the social processes of science through the specific angle of participatory research. This new way of producing science is still in its infancy and needs some step back and analysis, to understand what is taking place on the boundaries between academic, policy and lay worlds. We argue that social simulation of this practice of cooperation can help in understanding further this new way of doing science, building on existing experience in simulation of knowledge flows as well as pragmatic approaches in social sciences.Participatory Research, Institutional Analysis and Design, Knowledge Flow, Agent Based Simulation

Limit theorems for Markov walks conditioned to stay positive under a spectral gap assumption

Consider a Markov chain $(X_n)_{n\geqslant 0}$ with values in the state space $\mathbb X$. Let $f$ be a real function on $\mathbb X$ and set $S_0=0,$ $S_n = f(X_1)+\cdots + f(X_n),$ $n\geqslant 1$. Let $\mathbb P_x$ be the probability measure generated by the Markov chain starting at $X_0=x$. For a starting point $y \in \mathbb R$ denote by $\tau_y$ the first moment when the Markov walk $(y+S_n)_{n\geqslant 1}$ becomes non-positive. Under the condition that $S_n$ has zero drift, we find the asymptotics of the probability $\mathbb P_x ( \tau_y >n )$ and of the conditional law $\mathbb P_x ( y+S_n\leqslant \cdot\sqrt{n} | \tau_y >n )$ as $n\to +\infty.$Comment: Figure 1 correcte

Participatory design and use of a simplified landscape in a simulation model for mitigating land use conflict in Northern Thailand highlands

Landscape modelling integrating spatial information in Geographic Information Systems has been widely used to represent knowledge and support decision-making in the field of natural resource management. However, creating suitable visual representations of the landscape and its dynamics to stimulate the participation of diverse stakeholders in co-management of the land is still needed. This paper focuses on the design and implementation of a virtual landscape based on iconic representation used with herders and foresters, which both of them have contrasted perceptions on forest regeneration, to observe vegetation dynamics and emerging landscape features depending on different cattle and forest management strategies. This spatial interface was used during computerassisted Role-Playing Game sessions as part of a Companion Modelling process aiming at facilitating learning and support decision making among the concerned stakeholders in an upper watershed of northern Thailand. Before designing the spatial interface used in the model, an historical analysis of land use and land cover changes based on remote-sensed data was carried out, as well as a field survey on the impact of cattle grazing on vegetation dynamics. Then, the first set of vegetation states and their dynamics were produced and were validated with herders and foresters later. Thereafter, the simplified landscape representing landscape heterogeneity was constructed and used in two gaming and simulation field workshops. The different patterns of landscape emerged from herders' and foresters' decisions and interactions stimulated them to think about how to manage agro-ecosystems. Both of them agreed to implement a pilot plot of Brachiaria ruziziensis pasture in reality after finish the second workshop. This process proved to be instrumental in facilitating communication among the parties in conflict and increasing their motivation to improve the current situation. However, the use of such virtual landscape in gaming sessions proved to be time consuming and the managed area as well as the number of players was limited. Therefore, to get rid of these constraints, a fully autonomous Agent-Based Model making use of the same kind of simplified virtual landscape will be developed and used with local stakeholders to run possible future scenarios of change in a more time efficient and inclusive way. (Résumé d'auteur

Contribution of simulation and gaming to natural resource management issues: An introduction

Nowadays, computer-mediated simulations and games are widely used in the field of natural resource management (NRM). They have proved to be useful for various purposes such as supporting decisionmaking processes and training. First, the specificities of the NRM research field are highlighted. Then, based on the analysis of the articles presented in this special issue of Simulation & Gaming, some key features related to the implementation of gaming in such a context are introduced. Finally, after reviewing the benefits of using simulation games in NRM, the authors stress the ethical issue of changing social relationships among stakeholders by playing a game with some of themGESTION DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT;RESSOURCE NATURELLE;SIMULATION;SOCIOLOGIE;JEU DE ROLE;BENEFITS;CONTEXT;COLLECTIVE POLICY DESIGN;DECISION MAKING;ETHICAL ISSUES;IMPLEMENTATION;NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT (NRM);SIMULATION GAMES;SOCIAL EMPOWERMENT;SOCIAL RELATIONSHIPS;SOCIOECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS;STAKEHOLDERS

Collaborative multi-agent modelling to improve farmers' adaptive capacity to manage water and igrations dynamics in Northeast Thailand

Northeast Thailand has the largest rainfed lowland rice (RLR) ecosystem in the kingdom and is notoriously known for its high rate of poor smallholders. The unstable rice productivity as a consequence of an unfavourable ecological environment (erratic rainfall and infertile soils) interacting with low price of rice drives these poor people to migrate for more profitable employment leaving often their land and its water underused. During the last 15 years, small water resource improvement programs launched by the Thai government under its poverty alleviation agenda had limited success. Labour migration is an adaptive strategy to cope with the uncertainty of rainfall and its distribution. As a consequence, off-farm employment becomes a more and more important source of income. But the relationship between labour migrations and land and water management on the farms is still poorly documented. Therefore, we used the Companion Modelling (ComMod) approach to improve the understanding of this key interaction and to reinforce stakeholders' adaptive capacity to deal with uncertainty linked to water dynamics and labour management in the Lam Dome Yai watershed of Ubon Ratchathani Province. ComMod facilitates dialogue, shared learning, and collective decision-making to strengthen the adaptive management capacity of local communities through integrative collaborative modelling. The cyclic ComMod process is made of iterative loops comprising field investigations, modelling, and participatory simulations relying on the combinations of Role-Playing Games (RPG) and Agent-Based Models (ABM) used with stakeholders. In this case study, 5 ComMod loops were carried out to better understand the problem being examined, stimulate exchange of points of view and enhance the creativity of the participants while lessening the black box effect of computer models. The key processes embedded in the models are based on stakeholders' decision-making driven by human-environment interactions. We take into account the diversity of farm types with their specific strategies and means of productions. The RPG and the ABM represent this diversity as rule-based agents (local farmers) managing this specific RLR ecosystem. The RPG mainly helped the stakeholders to understand the rules and sequence of ABM simulation while the ABM helped the stakeholders to better understand self-situation and examined causes of actions of other players. The ABM is used to identify the scenarios with local farmers, and simulated for discovery learning towards to desirable scenarios. The communication presents and discusses the various effects of this participatory modeling and simulation process on the different components of farmers' adaptive capacity: learning and understanding the problem, capacity and network building through social learning, and new behaviours and practices such as more cash crops the dry season when additional water is available by very small farming households. The preliminary results of scenarios simulated with farmers are also discussed. In conclusion we explain how the outcomes of such a ComMod process could be used to inform water policies at the regional level