Approaches for Carbon Budget Analyses of the Siberian Forests

This report carried out by Timo Karjalainen and Jari Liski is a contribution to the analyses of carbon balances of the Siberian forests. The report contains two inter-linked sections. The aim of the first section was to develop a method to assess carbon budget for tree biomass at ecoregional level in Siberia. Tree biomass carbon budgets contain estimates on the initial amounts of carbon in the whole tree biomass, as well as its dynamics. The calculation method developed based on the structure of the Russian forest database at IIASA and available models describing tree growth and biomass allocation in Siberia. Calculated litter production is used as input for separate calculations on the soil organic matter carbon budget (Liski, 1997). Stand level analyses showed that the developed method describes vegetation carbon budget in a plausible manner. The stand level analyses are the platform for regional assessments. There are, however, several matters that should be taken into account in the regional assessments. These relate to stand structure, description of stand replacing disturbances, and availability of data. In the second section, different models describing the dynamics of organic C in forest soils were developed and then compared. The model judged to describe the dynamics of soil C in the most realistic way contains five compartments for different litter and three for soil organic matter (the so called soil C model). Temperature was considered the most important climatic factor that regulates the decomposition in boreal forests. The effective temperature sum with a +5 degree C threshold was chosen to describe the temperature impact on the decomposition. The application of the developed models was tested on the issues of impacts of species, harvesting intervals and harvesting residues left on the site. For a full-scale application of the developed soil carbon models for Siberia and Russia, the special features of permafrost soils and peatlands need to be added to the models

Evaluating two soil carbon models within the global land surface model JSBACH using surface and spaceborne observations of atmospheric CO₂

The trajectories of soil carbon (C) in the changing climate are of utmost importance, as soil carbon is a substantial carbon storage with a large potential to impact the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) burden. Atmospheric CO2 observations integrate all processes affecting C exchange between the surface and the atmosphere. Therefore they provide a benchmark for carbon cycle models. We evaluated two distinct soil carbon models (CBALANCE and YASSO) that were implemented to a global land surface model (JSBACH) against atmospheric CO2 observations. We transported the biospheric carbon fluxes obtained by JSBACH using the atmospheric transport model TM5 to obtain atmospheric CO2. We then compared these results with surface observations from Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) stations as well as with column XCO2 retrievals from the GOSAT satellite. The seasonal cycles of atmospheric CO2 estimated by the two different soil models differed. The estimates from the CBALANCE soil model were more in line with the surface observations at low latitudes (0 N–45 N) with only 1 % bias in the seasonal cycle amplitude (SCA), whereas YASSO was underestimating the SCA in this region by 32 %. YASSO gave more realistic seasonal cycle amplitudes of CO2 at northern boreal sites (north of 45 N) with underestimation of 15 % compared to 30 % overestimation by CBALANCE. Generally, the estimates from CBALANCE were more successful in capturing the seasonal patterns and seasonal cycle amplitudes of atmospheric CO2 even though it overestimated soil carbon stocks by 225 % (compared to underestimation of 36 % by YASSO) and its predictions of the global distribution of soil carbon stocks was unrealistic. The reasons for these differences in the results are related to the different environmental drivers and their functional dependencies of these two soil carbon models. In the tropical region the YASSO model showed earlier increase in season of the heterotophic respiration since it is driven by precipitation instead of soil moisture as CBALANCE. In the temperate and boreal region the role of temperature is more dominant. There the heterotophic respiration from the YASSO model had larger annual variability, driven by air temperature, compared to the CBALANCE which is driven by soil temperature. The results underline the importance of using sub-yearly data in the development of soil carbon models when they are used in shorter than annual time scales

Soil carbon monitoring using surveys and modelling. General description and application in the United Republic of Tanzania

This publication describes the application of survey- and modelling-based methods for monitoring soil organic carbon stock and its changes on a national scale. The report presents i) a design of the first inventory of soil organic carbon, including discussion on factors that affect the reliability of carbon stock estimates; and ii) a design of a modelling-based approach, including links to national forest inventory data and discussion on alternative soil organic carbon models. Both approaches can provide necessary information on soil carbon changes for a national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory. Forest soils constitute a large pool of carbon and releases of carbon from this pool, caused by anthropogenic activities such as deforestation and forest degradation, may significantly increase the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere. Therefore, estimating and reducing emissions from these activities have become timely issues. Currently, reliable estimates of soil organic carbon stock and stock changes are needed for REDO (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries) and GHG reporting under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).The document is available in print formMinistry for foreign affairs of Finlan

Test of validity of a dynamic soil carbon model using data from leaf litter decomposition in a West African tropical forest

Abstract. We evaluated the applicability of the dynamic soil carbon model Yasso07 in tropical conditions in West Africa by simulating the litter decomposition process using as required input into the model litter mass, litter quality, temperature and precipitation collected during a litterbag experiment. The experiment was conducted over a six-month period on leaf litter of five dominant tree species, namely Afzelia africana, Anogeissus leiocarpa, Ceiba pentandra, Dialium guineense and Diospyros mespiliformis in a semi-deciduous vertisol forest in Southern Benin. Since the predictions of Yasso07 were not consistent with the observations on mass loss and chemical composition of litter, Yasso07 was fitted to the dataset composed of global data and the new experimental data from Benin. The re-parameterized versions of Yasso07 had a good predictive ability and refined the applicability of the model in Benin to estimate soil carbon stocks, its changes and CO2 emissions from heterotrophic respiration as main outputs of the model. The findings of this research support the hypothesis that the high variation of litter quality observed in the tropics is a major driver of the decomposition and needs to be accounted in the model parameterization. </jats:p

Mechanism Design in Social Networks

This paper studies an auction design problem for a seller to sell a commodity in a social network, where each individual (the seller or a buyer) can only communicate with her neighbors. The challenge to the seller is to design a mechanism to incentivize the buyers, who are aware of the auction, to further propagate the information to their neighbors so that more buyers will participate in the auction and hence, the seller will be able to make a higher revenue. We propose a novel auction mechanism, called information diffusion mechanism (IDM), which incentivizes the buyers to not only truthfully report their valuations on the commodity to the seller, but also further propagate the auction information to all their neighbors. In comparison, the direct extension of the well-known Vickrey-Clarke-Groves (VCG) mechanism in social networks can also incentivize the information diffusion, but it will decrease the seller's revenue or even lead to a deficit sometimes. The formalization of the problem has not yet been addressed in the literature of mechanism design and our solution is very significant in the presence of large-scale online social networks.Comment: In The Thirty-First AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, San Francisco, US, 04-09 Feb 201

Experimental Designs for Binary Data in Switching Measurements on Superconducting Josephson Junctions

We study the optimal design of switching measurements of small Josephson junction circuits which operate in the macroscopic quantum tunnelling regime. Starting from the D-optimality criterion we derive the optimal design for the estimation of the unknown parameters of the underlying Gumbel type distribution. As a practical method for the measurements, we propose a sequential design that combines heuristic search for initial estimates and maximum likelihood estimation. The presented design has immediate applications in the area of superconducting electronics implying faster data acquisition. The presented experimental results confirm the usefulness of the method. KEY WORDS: optimal design, D-optimality, logistic regression, complementary log-log link, quantum physics, escape measurement

Microbial soil respiration and its dependency on carbon inputs, soil temperature and moisture

This experiment was designed to study three determinant factors in decomposition patterns of soil organic matter (SOM): temperature, water and carbon (C) inputs. The study combined field measurements with soil lab incubations and ends with a modelling framework based on the results obtained. Soil respiration was periodically measured at an oak savanna woodland and a ponderosa pine plantation. Intact soils cores were collected at both ecosystems, including soils with most labile C burnt off, soils with some labile C gone and soils with fresh inputs of labile C. Two treatments, dry-field condition and field capacity, were applied to an incubation that lasted 111 days. Short-term temperature changes were applied to the soils periodically to quantify temperature responses. This was done to prevent confounding results associated with different pools of C that would result by exposing treatments chronically to different temperature regimes. This paper discusses the role of the above-defined environmental factors on the variability of soil C dynamics. At the seasonal scale, temperature and water were, respectively, the main limiting factors controlling soil CO2 efflux for the ponderosa pine and the oak savanna ecosystems. Spatial and seasonal variations in plant activity (root respiration and exudates production) exerted a strong influence over the seasonal and spatial variation of soil metabolic activity. Mean residence times of bulk SOM were significantly lower at the Nitrogen (N)-rich deciduous savanna than at the N-limited evergreen dominated pine ecosystem. At shorter time scales (daily), SOM decomposition was controlled primarily by temperature during wet periods and by the combined effect of water and temperature during dry periods. Secondary control was provided by the presence/absence of plant derived C inputs (exudation). Further analyses of SOM decomposition suggest that factors such as changes in the decomposer community, stress-induced changes in the metabolic activity of decomposers or SOM stabilization patterns remain unresolved, but should also be considered in future SOM decomposition studies. Observations and confounding factors associated with SOM decomposition patterns and its temperature sensitivity are summarized in the modeling framework

Multiple openings and competitiveness of forward markets: experimental evidence

We test the competition enhancing effect of selling forward in experimental Cournot duopoly and quadropoly with multiple forward markets. We find that having two forward periods yields competitive outcomes and that the results are very close to the predicted theoretical results for both quantity setting duopolies and quadropolies. Our experiments lend strong support to the hypothesis that forward markets are competition enhancing. We then test a new market that allows for endogenously determined indefinitely many forward periods that only close when sellers coordinate on selling a zero amount in a forward market. We find that the outcomes under an endogenous close rule are also very competitive. These results hold for both duopolies and quadropolies