What is the impact of psychiatric decision units on mental health crisis care pathways? Protocol for an interrupted time series analysis with a synthetic control study

Background The UK mental health system is stretched to breaking point. Individuals presenting with mental health problems wait longer at the ED than those presenting with physical concerns and finding a bed when needed is difficult – 91% of psychiatric wards are operating at above the recommended occupancy rate. To address the pressure, a new type of facility – psychiatric decision units (also known as mental health decision units) – have been introduced in some areas. These are short-stay facilities, available upon referral, targeted to help individuals who may be able to avoid an inpatient admission or lengthy ED visit. To advance knowledge about the effectiveness of this service for this purpose, we will examine the effect of the service on the mental health crisis care pathway over a 4-year time period; the 2 years proceeding and following the introduction of the service. We use aggregate service level data of key indicators of the performance of this pathway. Methods Data from four mental health Trusts in England will be analysed using an interrupted time series (ITS) design with the primary outcomes of the rate of (i) ED psychiatric presentations and (ii) voluntary admissions to mental health wards. This will be supplemented with a synthetic control study with the same primary outcomes, in which a comparable control group is generated for each outcome using a donor pool of suitable National Health Service Trusts in England. The methods are well suited to an evaluation of an intervention at a service delivery level targeting population-level health outcome and the randomisation or ‘trialability’ of the intervention is limited. The synthetic control study controls for national trends over time, increasing our confidence in the results. The study has been designed and will be carried out with the involvement of service users and carers. Discussion This will be the first formal evaluation of psychiatric decision units in England. The analysis will provide estimates of the effect of the decision units on a number of important service use indicators, providing much-needed information for those designing service pathways

Locally Optimal Load Balancing

This work studies distributed algorithms for locally optimal load-balancing: We are given a graph of maximum degree $\Delta$, and each node has up to $L$ units of load. The task is to distribute the load more evenly so that the loads of adjacent nodes differ by at most $1$. If the graph is a path ($\Delta = 2$), it is easy to solve the fractional version of the problem in $O(L)$ communication rounds, independently of the number of nodes. We show that this is tight, and we show that it is possible to solve also the discrete version of the problem in $O(L)$ rounds in paths. For the general case ($\Delta > 2$), we show that fractional load balancing can be solved in $\operatorname{poly}(L,\Delta)$ rounds and discrete load balancing in $f(L,\Delta)$ rounds for some function $f$, independently of the number of nodes.Comment: 19 pages, 11 figure

Mid-mantle deformation inferred from seismic anisotropy

With time, convective processes in the Earth's mantle will tend to align crystals, grains and inclusions. This mantle fabric is detectable seismologically, as it produces an anisotropy in material properties—in particular, a directional dependence in seismic-wave velocity. This alignment is enhanced at the boundaries of the mantle where there are rapid changes in the direction and magnitude of mantle flow, and therefore most observations of anisotropy are confined to the uppermost mantle or lithosphere and the lowermost-mantle analogue of the lithosphere, the D" region. Here we present evidence from shear-wave splitting measurements for mid-mantle anisotropy in the vicinity of the 660-km discontinuity, the boundary between the upper and lower mantle. Deep-focus earthquakes in the Tonga–Kermadec and New Hebrides subduction zones recorded at Australian seismograph stations record some of the largest values of shear-wave splitting hitherto reported. The results suggest that, at least locally, there may exist a mid-mantle boundary layer, which could indicate the impediment of flow between the upper and lower mantle in this region

The radiation of cynodonts and the ground plan of mammalian morphological diversity

Cynodont therapsids diversified extensively after the Permo-Triassic mass extinction event, and gave rise to mammals in the Jurassic. We use an enlarged and revised dataset of discrete skeletal characters to build a new phylogeny for all main cynodont clades from the Late Permian to the Early Jurassic, and we analyse models of morphological diversification in the group. Basal taxa and epicynodonts are paraphyletic relative to eucynodonts, and the latter are divided into cynognathians and probainognathians, with tritylodonts and mammals forming sister groups. Disparity analyses reveal a heterogeneous distribution of cynodonts in a morphospace derived from cladistic characters. Pairwise morphological distances are weakly correlated with phylogenetic distances. Comparisons of disparity by groups and through time are non-significant, especially after the data are rarefied. A disparity peak occurs in the Early/Middle Triassic, after which period the mean disparity fluctuates little. Cynognathians were characterized by high evolutionary rates and high diversity early in their history, whereas probainognathian rates were low. Community structure may have been instrumental in imposing different rates on the two clades

Crude incidence in two-phase designs in the presence of competing risks.

BackgroundIn many studies, some information might not be available for the whole cohort, some covariates, or even the outcome, might be ascertained in selected subsamples. These studies are part of a broad category termed two-phase studies. Common examples include the nested case-control and the case-cohort designs. For two-phase studies, appropriate weighted survival estimates have been derived; however, no estimator of cumulative incidence accounting for competing events has been proposed. This is relevant in the presence of multiple types of events, where estimation of event type specific quantities are needed for evaluating outcome.MethodsWe develop a non parametric estimator of the cumulative incidence function of events accounting for possible competing events. It handles a general sampling design by weights derived from the sampling probabilities. The variance is derived from the influence function of the subdistribution hazard.ResultsThe proposed method shows good performance in simulations. It is applied to estimate the crude incidence of relapse in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia in groups defined by a genotype not available for everyone in a cohort of nearly 2000 patients, where death due to toxicity acted as a competing event. In a second example the aim was to estimate engagement in care of a cohort of HIV patients in resource limited setting, where for some patients the outcome itself was missing due to lost to follow-up. A sampling based approach was used to identify outcome in a subsample of lost patients and to obtain a valid estimate of connection to care.ConclusionsA valid estimator for cumulative incidence of events accounting for competing risks under a general sampling design from an infinite target population is derived

Mapping species distributions: A comparison of skilled naturalist and lay citizen science recording

To assess the ability of traditional biological recording schemes and lay citizen science approaches to gather data on species distributions and changes therein, we examined bumblebee records from the UK’s national repository (National Biodiversity Network) and from BeeWatch. The two recording approaches revealed similar relative abundances of bumblebee species but different geographical distributions. For the widespread common carder (Bombus pascuorum), traditional recording scheme data were patchy, both spatially and temporally, reflecting active record centre rather than species distribution. Lay citizen science records displayed more extensive geographic coverage, reflecting human population density, thus offering better opportunities to account for recording effort. For the rapidly spreading tree bumblebee (Bombus hypnorum), both recording approaches revealed similar distributions due to a dedicated mapping project which overcame the patchy nature of naturalist records. We recommend, where possible, complementing skilled naturalist recording with lay citizen science programmes to obtain a nation-wide capability, and stress the need for timely uploading of data to the national repository

Optical Lattices: Theory

This chapter presents an overview of the properties of a Bose-Einstein condensate (BEC) trapped in a periodic potential. This system has attracted a wide interest in the last years, and a few excellent reviews of the field have already appeared in the literature (see, for instance, [1-3] and references therein). For this reason, and because of the huge amount of published results, we do not pretend here to be comprehensive, but we will be content to provide a flavor of the richness of this subject, together with some useful references. On the other hand, there are good reasons for our effort. Probably, the most significant is that BEC in periodic potentials is a truly interdisciplinary problem, with obvious connections with electrons in crystal lattices, polarons and photons in optical fibers. Moreover, the BEC experimentalists have reached such a high level of accuracy to create in the lab, so to speak, paradigmatic Hamiltonians, which were first introduced as idealized theoretical models to study, among others, dynamical instabilities or quantum phase transitions.Comment: Chapter 13 in Part VIII: "Optical Lattices" of "Emergent Nonlinear Phenomena in Bose-Einstein Condensates: Theory and Experiment," edited by P. G. Kevrekidis, D. J. Frantzeskakis, and R. Carretero-Gonzalez (Springer Series on Atomic, Optical, and Plasma Physics, 2007) - pages 247-26

Stochastic Gravity: Theory and Applications

Whereas semiclassical gravity is based on the semiclassical Einstein equation with sources given by the expectation value of the stress-energy tensor of quantum fields, stochastic semiclassical gravity is based on the Einstein-Langevin equation, which has in addition sources due to the noise kernel.In the first part, we describe the fundamentals of this new theory via two approaches: the axiomatic and the functional. In the second part, we describe three applications of stochastic gravity theory. First, we consider metric perturbations in a Minkowski spacetime: we compute the two-point correlation functions for the linearized Einstein tensor and for the metric perturbations. Second, we discuss structure formation from the stochastic gravity viewpoint. Third, we discuss the backreaction of Hawking radiation in the gravitational background of a quasi-static black hole.Comment: 75 pages, no figures, submitted to Living Reviews in Relativit

Topology by Design in Magnetic nano-Materials: Artificial Spin Ice

Artificial Spin Ices are two dimensional arrays of magnetic, interacting nano-structures whose geometry can be chosen at will, and whose elementary degrees of freedom can be characterized directly. They were introduced at first to study frustration in a controllable setting, to mimic the behavior of spin ice rare earth pyrochlores, but at more useful temperature and field ranges and with direct characterization, and to provide practical implementation to celebrated, exactly solvable models of statistical mechanics previously devised to gain an understanding of degenerate ensembles with residual entropy. With the evolution of nano--fabrication and of experimental protocols it is now possible to characterize the material in real-time, real-space, and to realize virtually any geometry, for direct control over the collective dynamics. This has recently opened a path toward the deliberate design of novel, exotic states, not found in natural materials, and often characterized by topological properties. Without any pretense of exhaustiveness, we will provide an introduction to the material, the early works, and then, by reporting on more recent results, we will proceed to describe the new direction, which includes the design of desired topological states and their implications to kinetics.Comment: 29 pages, 13 figures, 116 references, Book Chapte

Bioavailability in soils

The consumption of locally-produced vegetables by humans may be an important exposure pathway for soil contaminants in many urban settings and for agricultural land use. Hence, prediction of metal and metalloid uptake by vegetables from contaminated soils is an important part of the Human Health Risk Assessment procedure. The behaviour of metals (cadmium, chromium, cobalt, copper, mercury, molybdenum, nickel, lead and zinc) and metalloids (arsenic, boron and selenium) in contaminated soils depends to a large extent on the intrinsic charge, valence and speciation of the contaminant ion, and soil properties such as pH, redox status and contents of clay and/or organic matter. However, chemistry and behaviour of the contaminant in soil alone cannot predict soil-to-plant transfer. Root uptake, root selectivity, ion interactions, rhizosphere processes, leaf uptake from the atmosphere, and plant partitioning are important processes that ultimately govern the accumulation ofmetals and metalloids in edible vegetable tissues. Mechanistic models to accurately describe all these processes have not yet been developed, let alone validated under field conditions. Hence, to estimate risks by vegetable consumption, empirical models have been used to correlate concentrations of metals and metalloids in contaminated soils, soil physico-chemical characteristics, and concentrations of elements in vegetable tissues. These models should only be used within the bounds of their calibration, and often need to be re-calibrated or validated using local soil and environmental conditions on a regional or site-specific basis.Mike J. McLaughlin, Erik Smolders, Fien Degryse, and Rene Rietr