Economic factors influencing zoonotic disease dynamics: demand for poultry meat and seasonal transmission of avian influenza in Vietnam

While climate is often presented as a key factor influencing the seasonality of diseases, the importance of anthropogenic factors is less commonly evaluated. Using a combination of methods-wavelet analysis, economic analysis, statistical and disease transmission modelling-we aimed to explore the influence of climatic and economic factors on the seasonality of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in the domestic poultry population of Vietnam. We found that while climatic variables are associated with seasonal variation in the incidence of avian influenza outbreaks in the North of the country, this is not the case in the Centre and the South. In contrast, temporal patterns of H5N1 incidence are similar across these 3 regions: periods of high H5N1 incidence coincide with Lunar New Year festival, occurring in January-February, in the 3 climatic regions for 5 out of the 8 study years. Yet, daily poultry meat consumption drastically increases during Lunar New Year festival throughout the country. To meet this rise in demand, poultry production and trade are expected to peak around the festival period, promoting viral spread, which we demonstrated using a stochastic disease transmission model. This study illustrates the way in which economic factors may influence the dynamics of livestock pathogens

Holographic models for undoped Weyl semimetals

We continue our recently proposed holographic description of single-particle correlation functions for four-dimensional chiral fermions with Lifshitz scaling at zero chemical potential, paying particular attention to the dynamical exponent z = 2. We present new results for the spectral densities and dispersion relations at non-zero momenta and temperature. In contrast to the relativistic case with z = 1, we find the existence of a quantum phase transition from a non-Fermi liquid into a Fermi liquid in which two Fermi surfaces spontaneously form, even at zero chemical potential. Our findings show that the boundary system behaves like an undoped Weyl semimetal.Comment: 64 pages, 19 figure

Does sex matter in the associations between classic risk factors and fatal coronary heart disease in populations from the Asia-Pacific region?

Background: There is much interest in promoting healthy heart awareness among women. However, little is known about the reasons behind the lower rates of heart disease among women compared with men, and why this risk difference diminishes with age. Previous comparative studies have generally had insufficient numbers of women to quantify such differences reliably. Methods: We carried out an individual participant data meta-analysis of 39 cohort studies (32 from Asian countries and 7 from Australia and New Zealand). Cox models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for coronary death, comparing men to women. Further adjustments were made for several proven coronary risk factors to quantify their contributions to the sex differential. Sex interactions were tested for the same risk factors. Results: During 4 million person-years of follow-up, there were 1989 (926 female) deaths from coronary heart disease (CHD). The age-adjusted and study-adjusted male/female HR (95% confidence interval [95% CI]) was 2.05 (1.89-2.22). At baseline, 54% of men vs. 7% of women were current smokers; hence, adjustment for smoking explained the largest component (20%) of this HR. A significant sex interaction was observed between systolic blood pressure (SBP) and CHD mortality such that a 10 mm Hg increase was associated with a 15% greater increase in the relative risk (RR) of coronary death in women compared with men (p = 0.002). Conclusions: Only a small amount of the sex differential in coronary death could be explained by differences in the prevalence of classic risk factors. Alternative explanations are required to explain the age-related attenuation of the sex difference in CHD risk. © Mary Ann Liebert, Inc.published_or_final_versio

Temporal trend and climate factors of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome epidemic in Shenyang City, China

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is an important infectious disease caused by different species of hantaviruses. As a rodent-borne disease with a seasonal distribution, external environmental factors including climate factors may play a significant role in its transmission. The city of Shenyang is one of the most seriously endemic areas for HFRS. Here, we characterized the dynamic temporal trend of HFRS, and identified climate-related risk factors and their roles in HFRS transmission in Shenyang, China.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The annual and monthly cumulative numbers of HFRS cases from 2004 to 2009 were calculated and plotted to show the annual and seasonal fluctuation in Shenyang. Cross-correlation and autocorrelation analyses were performed to detect the lagged effect of climate factors on HFRS transmission and the autocorrelation of monthly HFRS cases. Principal component analysis was constructed by using climate data from 2004 to 2009 to extract principal components of climate factors to reduce co-linearity. The extracted principal components and autocorrelation terms of monthly HFRS cases were added into a multiple regression model called principal components regression model (PCR) to quantify the relationship between climate factors, autocorrelation terms and transmission of HFRS. The PCR model was compared to a general multiple regression model conducted only with climate factors as independent variables.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A distinctly declining temporal trend of annual HFRS incidence was identified. HFRS cases were reported every month, and the two peak periods occurred in spring (March to May) and winter (November to January), during which, nearly 75% of the HFRS cases were reported. Three principal components were extracted with a cumulative contribution rate of 86.06%. Component 1 represented MinRH₀, MT₁, RH₁, and MWV₁; component 2 represented RH₂, MaxT₃, and MAP₃; and component 3 represented MaxT₂, MAP₂, and MWV₂. The PCR model was composed of three principal components and two autocorrelation terms. The association between HFRS epidemics and climate factors was better explained in the PCR model (<it>F </it>= 446.452, <it>P </it>< 0.001, adjusted <it>R</it>²= 0.75) than in the general multiple regression model (<it>F </it>= 223.670, <it>P </it>< 0.000, adjusted <it>R</it>²= 0.51).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The temporal distribution of HFRS in Shenyang varied in different years with a distinctly declining trend. The monthly trends of HFRS were significantly associated with local temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, air pressure, and wind velocity of the different previous months. The model conducted in this study will make HFRS surveillance simpler and the control of HFRS more targeted in Shenyang.</p

Multidimensional synthetic chiral-tube lattices via nonlinear frequency conversion

Geometrical dimensionality plays a fundamentally important role in the topological effects arising in discrete lattices. While direct experiments are limited by three spatial dimensions, the research topic of synthetic dimensions implemented by the frequency degree of freedom in photonics is rapidly advancing. The manipulation of light in such artificial lattices is typically realized through electro-optic modulation, yet their operating bandwidth imposes practical constraints on the range of interactions between different frequency components. Here we propose and experimentally realize all-optical synthetic dimensions involving specially tailored simultaneous short- and long-range interactions between discrete spectral lines mediated by frequency conversion in a nonlinear waveguide. We realize triangular chiral-tube lattices in three-dimensional space and explore their four-dimensional generalization. We implement a synthetic gauge field with nonzero magnetic flux and observe the associated multidimensional dynamics of frequency combs, all within one physical spatial port. We anticipate that our method will provide a new means for the fundamental study of high-dimensional physics and act as an important step towards using topological effects in optical devices operating in the time and frequency domains.Comment: 20 pages, 6 figure

Improved Measurement of Electron Antineutrino Disappearance at Daya Bay

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Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome, Beijing, People's Republic of China

We used geographic information systems to characterize the dynamic change in spatial distribution of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Beijing, People's Republic of China. The seasonal variation in its incidence was observed by creating an epidemic curve. HFRS was associated with developed land, orchards, and rice paddies