Exploratory analysis of high-resolution power interruption data reveals spatial and temporal heterogeneity in electric grid reliability

Modern grid monitoring equipment enables utilities to collect detailed records of power interruptions. These data are aggregated to compute publicly reported metrics describing high-level characteristics of grid performance. The current work explores the depth of insights that can be gained from public data, and the implications of losing visibility into heterogeneity in grid performance through aggregation. We present an exploratory analysis examining three years of high-resolution power interruption data collected by archiving information posted in real-time on the public-facing website of a utility in the Western United States. We report on the size, frequency and duration of individual power interruptions, and on spatio-temporal variability in aggregate reliability metrics. Our results show that metrics of grid performance can vary spatially and temporally by orders of magnitude, revealing heterogeneity that is not evidenced in publicly reported metrics. We show that limited access to granular information presents a substantive barrier to conducting detailed policy analysis, and discuss how more widespread data access could help to answer questions that remain unanswered in the literature to date. Given open questions about whether grid performance is adequate to support societal needs, we recommend establishing pathways to make high-resolution power interruption data available to support policy research.Comment: Journal submission (in review), 22 pages, 8 figures, 1 tabl

The Conservation and Habitat Ecology of Antillean Manatees (Trichechus manatus manatus) in the Drowned Cayes Area of Belize, Central America

The Drowned Cayes area of Belize, Central America is regionally important for the conservation of Antillean manatees in the Caribbean (Lefebvre et al. 2001; Quintana-Rizzo & Reynolds 2008). These islands are increasingly threatened by human activities such as tourism, development and population growth. The objective of this dissertation is to evaluate manatee habitat use and status in this area. The 5 specific objectives are to examine manatee (1) distribution in the Drowned Cayes, (2) use of seagrass beds and forage selection, (3) resting habitat use and selection (4) response to disturbance, and (5) trends in abundance and to suggest a method for monitoring manatees and other sirenians. The principal findings are that manatees utilize all habitat types within the area to meet a variety of their physiological and behavioral requirements. Some habitat types like seagrass beds and resting holes are clearly important components to the overall seascape. Manatees selectively forage on Halodule wrightii. Resting holes and seagrass beds that are adjacent to each other are a particularly important habitat configuration. Manatee habitat use seems to be resilient to mangrove removal, but foraging resources may not. Number of manatees sighted per scan over the duration of this study does not appear to have changed, but our method would not be able to detect a slight decline in abundance. Our survey protocol - point-based scan sampling from a small boat platform - is a relatively inexpensive, effective and repeatable method for monitoring sirenian population trends. By identifying important habitat types, foraging resources and resting areas, this research provides information that wildlife managers can use to promote watercraft guidelines and guide development decisions

Microgrids and Heterogeneous Power Quality and Reliability

This paper describes two stylized alternative visions of how the power system might evolve to meet future requirements for the high quality electricity service that modern digital economies demand, a supergrids paradigm and a dispersed paradigm. Some of the economics of the dispersed vision are explored, and perspectives are presented on both the choice of homogeneous universal power quality upstream in the electricity supply chain and on the extremely heterogeneous requirements of end-use loads. It is argued that meeting the demanding requirements of sensitive loads by local provision of high quality power may be more cost effective than increasing the quality of universal homogeneous supply upstream in the legacy grid. Finally, the potential role of microgrids in delivering heterogeneous power quality is demonstrated by reference to two ongoing microgrid tests in the U.S. and Japan

Review of the Recent Frequency Performance of the Eastern, Western and ERCOT Interconnections

The reliable operation of an electric power system depends on careful management of the balance between generation and load to ensure that system frequency is maintained within narrow bounds around a scheduled value. Yet, maintaining frequency at the scheduled value is challenging because the load served is continuously changing, and occasionally, events such as the sudden loss of a large generation plant or large amount of load, cause frequency to deviate abruptly. This report reviews the recent history of frequency performance for all three U.S. interconnections: Eastern, Western, and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). The review is based on data collected by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). The review focuses on frequency response, which measures the performance of the interconnections immediately following sudden, large imbalances between load and generation. Trends in frequency response are presented and preliminary efforts are made to relate frequency response to other aspects of frequency performance and to examine aspects of the methods used to calculate frequency response

Power and Frequency Control as it Relates to Wind-Powered Generation

This report is a part of an investigation of the ability of the U.S. power system to accommodate large scale additions of wind generation. The objectives of this report are to describe principles by which large multi-area power systems are controlled and to anticipate how the introduction of large amounts of wind power production might require control protocols to be changed. The operation of a power system is described in terms of primary and secondary control actions. Primary control is fast, autonomous, and provides the first-line corrective action in disturbances; secondary control takes place on a follow-up time scale and manages the deployment of resources to ensure reliable and economic operation. This report anticipates that the present fundamental primary and secondary control protocols will be satisfactory as wind power provides an increasing fraction of the total production, provided that appropriate attention is paid to the timing of primary control response, to short term wind forecasting, and to management of reserves for control action

Tracking the Reliability of the U.S. Electric Power System: An Assessment of Publicly Available Information Reported to State Public Utility Commissions

Large blackouts, such as the August 14-15, 2003 blackout in the northeasternUnited States and Canada, focus attention on the importance of reliable electric service. As public and private efforts are undertaken to improve reliability and prevent power interruptions, it is appropriate to assess their effectiveness. Measures of reliability, such as the frequency and duration of power interruptions, have been reported by electric utilities to state public utility commissions for many years. This study examines current state and utility practices for collecting and reporting electricity reliability information and discusses challenges that arise in assessing reliability because of differences among these practices. The study is based primarily on reliability information for 2006 reported by 123 utilities to 37 state public utility commissions

Estimates of the Economic Impacts of Long-Duration, Widespread Power Disruptions in Puerto Rico

A typical electricity customer in Puerto Rico experienced nearly 27 hours of power interruptions in 2023–with many customers experiencing extremely long duration outages during a single event (i.e., greater than one month). This project involved conducting state-of-the-art surveying to assess the direct costs of power outages occurring across Puerto Rico, developing customer-specific models to estimate future costs over varying outage durations, and comparing these estimates to FEMA’s Value of Unit Service for Electricity. We estimate that a territory-wide power outage may cost customers $1,$5 and $29 billion during one-, 14-, and 30-day interruptions, respectively. However, these are lower-bound estimates because our study focused on direct economic costs and, by necessity, did not fully incorporate (1) indirect impacts to the economy; (2) costs to repair or replace damaged utility infrastructure; and (3) the broader societal consequences including increased morbidity- and mortality-related costs. The information contained in this study can be used to estimate the direct economic value of past or proposed investments in power system resilience. We conclude with a discussion of this study’s limitations and suggest additional research to improve stakeholder understanding of the impacts of power outages across Puerto Rico

Preliminary Estimates of Combined Heat and Power Greenhouse GasAbatement Potential for California in 2020

The objective of this scoping project is to help the California Energy Commission's (CEC) Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) Program determine where it should make investments in research to support combined heat and power (CHP) deployment. Specifically, this project will: {sm_bullet} Determine what impact CHP might have in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, {sm_bullet} Determine which CHP strategies might encourage the most attractive early adoption, {sm_bullet} Identify the regulatory and technological barriers to the most attractive CHP strategies, and {sm_bullet} Make recommendations to the PIER program as to research that is needed to support the most attractive CHP strategies

An Examination of Temporal Trends in Electricity Reliability Based on Reports from U.S. Electric Utilities

Since the 1960s, the U.S. electric power system has experienced a major blackout about once every 10 years. Each has been a vivid reminder of the importance society places on the continuous availability of electricity and has led to calls for changes to enhance reliability. At the root of these calls are judgments about what reliability is worth and how much should be paid to ensure it. In principle, comprehensive information on the actual reliability of the electric power system and on how proposed changes would affect reliability ought to help inform these judgments. Yet, comprehensive, national-scale information on the reliability of the U.S. electric power system is lacking. This report helps to address this information gap by assessing trends in U.S. electricity reliability based on information reported by electric utilities on power interruptions experienced by their customers. Our research augments prior investigations, which focused only on power interruptions originating in the bulk power system, by considering interruptions originating both from the bulk power system and from within local distribution systems. Our research also accounts for differences among utility reliability reporting practices by employing statistical techniques that remove the influence of these differences on the trends that we identify. The research analyzes up to 10 years of electricity reliability information collected from 155 U.S. electric utilities, which together account for roughly 50% of total U.S. electricity sales. The questions analyzed include: 1. Are there trends in reported electricity reliability over time? 2. How are trends in reported electricity reliability affected by the installation or upgrade of an automated outage management system? 3. How are trends in reported electricity reliability affected by the use of IEEE Standard 1366-2003

ICE Calculator 2.0: Final Report for Phase 1 of the National Initiative to Update the Interruption Cost Estimate (ICE) Calculator

In 2021, Berkeley Lab and Resource Innovations, Inc. launched the “ICE 2.0 Initiative” – a national study to refresh the underlying data and enhance the functionality of the ICE Calculator. The Initiative involves Berkeley Lab contracting with sponsoring utilities to administer identical, updated and comprehensive interruption cost surveys to statistically representative samples of each utility’s customers. Berkeley Lab and Resource Innovations then pool the survey results across the utilities and use them to update the analytical engines that drive the ICE Calculator. The ICE 2.0 Initiative is being conducted in phases. Each phase involves the administration of interruption cost surveys to the customers of sponsoring utilities, followed by an update to the ICE Calculator based on analysis of the pooled survey results. This report describes the activities and findings from Phase 1 of the ICE 2.0 Initiative. Phase 1 was sponsored by eight utilities: American Electric Power, Commonwealth Edison, Dominion Energy, Duke Energy, DTE Electric, Exelon, National Grid, and Puget Sound Energy. Phase 1 involved 11 customer interruption cost survey activities representing a total of 24 electricity distribution service territories, 23 of them located in the Eastern and Midwestern regions of the U.S. and one located in the Pacific Northwest. ICE 2.0 vs. 1.0 Comparison This memorandum compares customer power interruption costs estimated using the recently updated Interruption Cost Estimate (ICE) Calculator (“ICE 2.0”) to the original ICE Calculator (“ICE 1.0”). ICE 1.0 was developed in 2009 based on 15 independent power interruption cost surveys conducted by 10 electric utilities between 1989 and 2012. ICE 2.0 was developed in 2025 through a national initiative based on a consistent set of power interruption cost surveys and 11 surveying efforts conducted across 24 electric utility service territories between 2022 and 2024