Do Cascades Recur?

Cascades of information-sharing are a primary mechanism by which content reaches its audience on social media, and an active line of research has studied how such cascades, which form as content is reshared from person to person, develop and subside. In this paper, we perform a large-scale analysis of cascades on Facebook over significantly longer time scales, and find that a more complex picture emerges, in which many large cascades recur, exhibiting multiple bursts of popularity with periods of quiescence in between. We characterize recurrence by measuring the time elapsed between bursts, their overlap and proximity in the social network, and the diversity in the demographics of individuals participating in each peak. We discover that content virality, as revealed by its initial popularity, is a main driver of recurrence, with the availability of multiple copies of that content helping to spark new bursts. Still, beyond a certain popularity of content, the rate of recurrence drops as cascades start exhausting the population of interested individuals. We reproduce these observed patterns in a simple model of content recurrence simulated on a real social network. Using only characteristics of a cascade's initial burst, we demonstrate strong performance in predicting whether it will recur in the future.Comment: WWW 201

Local Search in Unstructured Networks

We review a number of message-passing algorithms that can be used to search through power-law networks. Most of these algorithms are meant to be improvements for peer-to-peer file sharing systems, and some may also shed some light on how unstructured social networks with certain topologies might function relatively efficiently with local information. Like the networks that they are designed for, these algorithms are completely decentralized, and they exploit the power-law link distribution in the node degree. We demonstrate that some of these search algorithms can work well on real Gnutella networks, scale sub-linearly with the number of nodes, and may help reduce the network search traffic that tends to cripple such networks.Comment: v2 includes minor revisions: corrections to Fig. 8's caption and references. 23 pages, 10 figures, a review of local search strategies in unstructured networks, a contribution to `Handbook of Graphs and Networks: From the Genome to the Internet', eds. S. Bornholdt and H.G. Schuster (Wiley-VCH, Berlin, 2002), to be publishe

Can Cascades be Predicted?

On many social networking web sites such as Facebook and Twitter, resharing or reposting functionality allows users to share others' content with their own friends or followers. As content is reshared from user to user, large cascades of reshares can form. While a growing body of research has focused on analyzing and characterizing such cascades, a recent, parallel line of work has argued that the future trajectory of a cascade may be inherently unpredictable. In this work, we develop a framework for addressing cascade prediction problems. On a large sample of photo reshare cascades on Facebook, we find strong performance in predicting whether a cascade will continue to grow in the future. We find that the relative growth of a cascade becomes more predictable as we observe more of its reshares, that temporal and structural features are key predictors of cascade size, and that initially, breadth, rather than depth in a cascade is a better indicator of larger cascades. This prediction performance is robust in the sense that multiple distinct classes of features all achieve similar performance. We also discover that temporal features are predictive of a cascade's eventual shape. Observing independent cascades of the same content, we find that while these cascades differ greatly in size, we are still able to predict which ends up the largest

Coevolution of Network Structure and Content

As individuals communicate, their exchanges form a dynamic network. We demonstrate, using time series analysis of communication in three online settings, that network structure alone can be highly revealing of the diversity and novelty of the information being communicated. Our approach uses both standard and novel network metrics to characterize how unexpected a network configuration is, and to capture a network's ability to conduct information. We find that networks with a higher conductance in link structure exhibit higher information entropy, while unexpected network configurations can be tied to information novelty. We use a simulation model to explain the observed correspondence between the evolution of a network's structure and the information it carries.Comment: 10 pages, 10 figures V2 includes a simulation model; Proc. 4th International Conference on Web Science (WebSci'11), 201

Information Flow in Social Groups

We present a study of information flow that takes into account the observation that an item relevant to one person is more likely to be of interest to individuals in the same social circle than those outside of it. This is due to the fact that the similarity of node attributes in social networks decreases as a function of the graph distance. An epidemic model on a scale-free network with this property has a finite threshold, implying that the spread of information is limited. We tested our predictions by measuring the spread of messages in an organization and also by numerical experiments that take into consideration the organizational distance among individuals

Questions in, Knowledge iN?: A study of Naver’s question answering community

Large general-purposed community question-answering sites are becoming popular as a new venue for generating knowledge and helping users in their information needs. In this paper we analyze the characteristics of knowledge generation and user participation behavior in the largest question-answering online community in South Korea, Naver Knowledge–iN. We collected and analyzed over 2.6 million question/answer pairs from fifteen categories between 2002 and 2007, and have interviewed twenty six users to gain insights into their motivations, roles, usage and expertise. We find altruism, learning, and competency are frequent motivations for top answerers to participate, but that participation is often highly intermittent. Using a simple measure of user performance, we find that higher levels of participation correlate with better performance. We also observe that users are motivated in part through a point system to build a comprehensive knowledge database. These and other insights have significant implications for future knowledge generating online communities

Crowdsourcing with all‐pay auctions: A field experiment on Taskcn

We investigate the effects of various design features of all‐pay auction crowdsourcing sites by conducting a fieldexperiment on Taskcn, one of the largest crowdsourcingsites in China where all‐pay auction mechanisms are used. Specifically, we study the effects of price, reserve price inthe form of the early entry of high‐quality answers (shillanswers), and reputation systems on answer quantity andquality by posting translation and programming tasks on Taskcn. We find significant price effects on both thenumber of submissions and answer quality, and that taskswith shill answers have pronounced lower answer quality, which are consistent with our theoretical predictions. Inaddition, monetary incentives and the existence of shillanswers have different effects on users with differingexperience and expertise levels.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/90170/1/14504801298_ftp.pd