Effects of Uncertainty in Climate Inputs on Simulated Evapotranspiration and Runoff in the Western Arctic

Hydrological models require accurate precipitation and air temperature inputs in order to adequately depict water fluxes and storages across Arctic regions. Biases such as gauge undercatch, as well as uncertainties in numerical weather prediction reanalysis data that propagate through water budget models, limit the ability to accurately model the terrestrial arctic water cycle. A hydrological model forced with three climate datasets and three methods of estimating potential evapotranspiration (PET) was used to better understand the impact of these processes on simulated water fluxes across the Western Arctic Linkage Experiment (WALE) domain. Climate data were drawn from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis (NNR) (NCEP1), a modified version of the NNR (NCEP2), and the Willmott–Matsuura (WM) dataset. PET methods applied in the model were Hamon, Penman–Monteith, and Penman–Monteith using adjusted vapor pressure data. High vapor pressures in the NNR lead to low simulated evapotranspiration (ET) in model runs using the Penman–Monteith PET method, resulting in increased runoff. Annual ET derived from simulations using Penman–Monteith PET was half the magnitude of ET simulated when the Hamon method was used. Adjustments made to the reanalysis vapor pressure data increased the simulated ET flux, reducing simulated runoff. Using the NCEP2 or WM climate data, along with the Penman–Monteith PET function, results in agreement to within 7% between the simulated and observed runoff across the Yukon River basin. The results reveal the high degree of uncertainty present in climate data and the range of water fluxes generated from common model drivers. This suggests the need for thorough evaluations of model requirements and potential biases in forcing data, as well as corroborations with observed data, in all efforts to simulate arctic water balances

Immunological and Physiological Differences Between Layer- and Broiler Chickens after Concurrent Intratracheal Administration of Lipopolysaccharide and Human Serum Albumin

Layers and broilers were concurrently intratracheally challenged with 0.5 mg Lipopolysaccharide (LPS) and 0.1 mg Human Serum Albumin (HuSA) at 3 weeks of age. Specific total and isotype-specific (IgM, IgG, IgA) Antibody (Ab) responses to HuSA during 3 weeks following immunization, cellular in vitro mitogen responses to Concanavalin A (Con A) and specific cellular responses in vitro to different dosages of HuSA, blood serotonin (5-HT) levels, plasma Corticosterone (CORT) levels at 6 weeks of age and ex vivo nitric oxide (NO) production in the presence of LPS, respectively, were measured in all birds. Higher in vitro cellular responses to HuSA, but not Con A, were found in the broilers than in the layers. Also higher total, IgM and IgG antibody responses to HuSA were found in the broilers. Higher ex vivo NO production was found in the layers. A heavier spleen weight was found in the broilers, but relative spleen weight was higher in the layers. The broilers grew much heavier and also maintained a higher growth during the first 24 and 48 h after i.t. challenge with LPS and HuSA. No breed effect was found for body temperature responses after i.t. challenge. Blood 5-HT levels and plasma CORT levels were significantly higher in the layers. Number and type of significant correlations between 5-HT levels, cachectin response to LPS, antibody levels and cellular immunity differed between breeds. Our data suggest comparable immune responses to i.t. HuSA challenge in broilers and layers of similar age and confirm the earlier reported higher humoral immune response in broilers. On the other hand, the cachectin response to LPS differed between broilers and layers. Our results do not confirm the earlier reported higher cellular immune response of layers. Different significant relationships between physiological parameters in broilers and layers were found. Our results suggest that selection for enhanced growth does not necessarily affect specific immune competence of poultr

Climigration? Population and climate change in Arctic Alaska

Residents of towns and villages in Arctic Alaska live on “the front line of climate change.” Some communities face immediate threats from erosion and flooding associated with thawing permafrost, increasing river flows, and reduced sea ice protection of shorelines. The term climigration, referring to migration caused by climate change, originally was coined for these places. Although initial applications emphasized the need for government relocation policies, it has elsewhere been applied more broadly to encompass unplanned migration as well. Some historical movements have been attributed to climate change, but closer study tends to find multiple causes, making it difficult to quantify the climate contribution. Clearer attribution might come from comparisons of migration rates among places that are similar in most respects, apart from known climatic impacts. We apply this approach using annual 1990–2014 time series on 43 Arctic Alaska towns and villages. Within-community time plots show no indication of enhanced out-migration from the most at-risk communities. More formally, there is no significant difference between net migration rates of at-risk and other places, testing several alternative classifications. Although climigration is not detectable to date, growing risks make either planned or unplanned movements unavoidable in the near future

River Discharge, in State of the Climate in 2008

The global mean temperature in 2008 was slightly cooler than that in 2007; however, it still ranks within the 10 warmest years on record. Annual mean temperatures were generally well above average in South America, northern and southern Africa, Iceland, Europe, Russia, South Asia, and Australia. In contrast, an exceptional cold outbreak occurred during January across Eurasia and over southern European Russia and southern western Siberia. There has been a general increase in land-surface temperatures and in permafrost temperatures during the last several decades throughout the Arctic region, including increases of 1° to 2°C in the last 30 to 35 years in Russia. Record setting warm summer (JJA) air temperatures were observed throughout Greenland

The use and re-use of unsustainable groundwater for irrigation: A global budget

Depletion of groundwater aquifers across the globe has become a significant concern, as groundwater is an important and often unsustainable source of irrigation water. Simultaneously, the field of water resource management has seen a lively debate over the concepts and metrics used to assess the downstream re-use of agricultural runoff, with most studies focusing on surface water balances. Here, we bring these two lines of research together, recognizing that depletion of aquifers leads to large amounts of groundwater entering surface water storages and flows by way of agricultural runoff. While it is clear that groundwater users will be impacted by reductions in groundwater availability, there is a major gap in our understanding of potential impacts downstream of groundwater pumping locations. We find that the volume of unsustainable groundwater that is re-used for irrigation following runoff from agricultural systems is nearly as large as the volume initially extracted from reservoirs for irrigation. Basins in which the volume of irrigation water re-used is equal to or greater than the volume of water initially used (which is possible due to multiple re-use of the same water) contain 33 million hectares of irrigated land and are home to 1.3 billion people. Some studies have called for increasing irrigation efficiency as a solution to water shortages. We find that with 100% irrigation efficiency, global demand for unsustainable groundwater is reduced by 52%, but not eliminated. In many basins, increased irrigation efficiency leads to significantly decreased river low flows; increasing irrigation efficiency to 70% globally decreases total surface water supplies by backsim600 km3 yr−1. These findings illustrate that estimates of aquifer depletion alone underestimate the importance of unsustainable groundwater to sustaining surface water systems and irrigated agriculture

U.S. River Discharge for 2008 in State of the Climate in 2008

The global mean temperature in 2008 was slightly cooler than that in 2007; however, it still ranks within the 10 warmest years on record. Annual mean temperatures were generally well above average in South America, northern and southern Africa, Iceland, Europe, Russia, South Asia, and Australia. In contrast, an exceptional cold outbreak occurred during January across Eurasia and over southern European Russia and southern western Siberia. There has been a general increase in land-surface temperatures and in permafrost temperatures during the last several decades throughout the Arctic region, including increases of 1° to 2°C in the last 30 to 35 years in Russia. Record setting warm summer (JJA) air temperatures were observed throughout Greenland

Evaluation of trends in derived snowfall and rainfall across Eurasia and linkages with discharge to the Arctic Ocean

To more fully understand the role of precipitation in observed increases in freshwater discharge to the Arctic Ocean, data from a new archive of bias-adjusted precipitation records for the former USSR (TD9813), along with the CRU and Willmott-Matsuura data sets, were examined for the period 1936–1999. Across the six largest Eurasian river basins, snowfall derived from TD9813 exhibits a strongly significant increase until the late 1950s and a moderately significant decrease thereafter. A strongly significant decline in derived rainfall is also noted. Spatially, snowfall increases are found primarily across north-central Eurasia, an area where the rainfall decreases are most prominent. Although no significant change is determined in Eurasian-basin snowfall over the entire 64 year period, we note that interpolation from early, uneven station networks causes an overestimation of spatial precipitation, and that the local snowfall trends determined from gridded TD9813 data are likely underestimated. Yet, numerous uncertainties in historical Arctic climate data and the sparse, irregular nature of Arctic station networks preclude a confident assessment of precipitation-discharge linkages during the period of reported discharge trends

Analysis of the sensor characteristics of the Galileo dust detector with collimated Jovian dust stream particles

The Dust Detector System onboard Galileo records dust impacts in the Jupiter system. Impact events are classified into four quality classes. Class 3 -- our highest quality class -- has always been noise-free and, therefore, contains only true dust impacts. Depending on the noise environment, class 2 are dust impacts or noise. Within $20 R_J$ from Jupiter (Jupiter radius, $R_J = 71,492 km$) class 2 shows clear indications for contamination by noise. We analyse the dust data from Galileo's prime Jupiter mission (1996 and 1997), separate dust impacts from noise events and derive a complete denoised set of Galileo dust data (class 2 and class 3). Collimated streams of nanometer-sized dust particles which have been detected throughout the Jovian system (Gr\"un et al. 1998, JGR, 103, 20011-20022) are used to analyse the sensitive area and the field of view of the dust detector itself. The sensitive area for stream particles which trigger class 3 events is $110 \pm 37 cm^2$. This is almost a factor of ten smaller than the total sensitive area for class 2 impacts (1,000 cm^2). Correspondingly, the field of view of the detector for class 3 stream particles is reduced from $140^{\circ}$ to $96^{\circ}$. The magnetometer boom and other instruments on board Galileo cause a significant shadowing of the field of view of the dust sensor. Our analysis is supplementary to ground calibrations of the dust instrument because the low masses and high speeds of the stream particles could not be achieved in the laboratory. Our new results have important consequences for the analysis of dust in the Jupiter system.Comment: Planetary and Space Science, accepted, 11 figures, 3 table