Poisson Latent Feature Calculus for Generalized Indian Buffet Processes

The purpose of this work is to describe a unified, and indeed simple, mechanism for non-parametric Bayesian analysis, construction and generative sampling of a large class of latent feature models which one can describe as generalized notions of Indian Buffet Processes(IBP). This is done via the Poisson Process Calculus as it now relates to latent feature models. The IBP was ingeniously devised by Griffiths and Ghahramani in (2005) and its generative scheme is cast in terms of customers entering sequentially an Indian Buffet restaurant and selecting previously sampled dishes as well as new dishes. In this metaphor dishes corresponds to latent features, attributes, preferences shared by individuals. The IBP, and its generalizations, represent an exciting class of models well suited to handle high dimensional statistical problems now common in this information age. The IBP is based on the usage of conditionally independent Bernoulli random variables, coupled with completely random measures acting as Bayesian priors, that are used to create sparse binary matrices. This Bayesian non-parametric view was a key insight due to Thibaux and Jordan (2007). One way to think of generalizations is to to use more general random variables. Of note in the current literature are models employing Poisson and Negative-Binomial random variables. However, unlike their closely related counterparts, generalized Chinese restaurant processes, the ability to analyze IBP models in a systematic and general manner is not yet available. The limitations are both in terms of knowledge about the effects of different priors and in terms of models based on a wider choice of random variables. This work will not only provide a thorough description of the properties of existing models but also provide a simple template to devise and analyze new models.Comment: This version provides more details for the multivariate extensions in section 5. We highlight the case of a simple multinomial distribution and showcase a multivariate Levy process prior we call a stable-Beta Dirichlet process. Section 4.1.1 expande

Quantification of the impact of climate change on animal health: effects on pathogens, vectors, and hosts

Several animal or zoonotic emerging infectious disease (EID) events were recently caused by vector-borne pathogens, e.g. bluetongue virus transmitted by biting midges, or tick-borne encephalitis in Europe. The effects of climate changes have been put forward to explain these events. Because the bio-ecological features of arthropod vectors make them highly sensitive to environmental conditions, vector-borne diseases are ideal candidates to assess the effect of climate changes on EID. The question was extensively studied these last years. Results show that each EID is a special case and involves a complex network of interacting causes. In several cases, socio-economic changes, including the intensification of trade and travels, were found to have a dominant effect over climate changes. Conversely, the indirect effects of climate changes on animal health have been rarely studied so far. For instance, regarding northern and sub-Saharan Africa, climate-change scenarios often point to important consequences on farming systems (e.g., greater importance of small ruminants with respect to cattle) and urbanization. These changes will cause major changes in transboundary livestock trade, thus allowing the introduction of pathogens (and their possible vectors) into previously free areas. This is a further illustration of the need to better control animal diseases in their geographic are of endemicity, and to improve surveillance and preparedness for early warning and reaction in case of high risk of EID

Bayesian Poisson process partition calculus with an application to Bayesian L\'evy moving averages

This article develops, and describes how to use, results concerning disintegrations of Poisson random measures. These results are fashioned as simple tools that can be tailor-made to address inferential questions arising in a wide range of Bayesian nonparametric and spatial statistical models. The Poisson disintegration method is based on the formal statement of two results concerning a Laplace functional change of measure and a Poisson Palm/Fubini calculus in terms of random partitions of the integers {1,...,n}. The techniques are analogous to, but much more general than, techniques for the Dirichlet process and weighted gamma process developed in [Ann. Statist. 12 (1984) 351-357] and [Ann. Inst. Statist. Math. 41 (1989) 227-245]. In order to illustrate the flexibility of the approach, large classes of random probability measures and random hazards or intensities which can be expressed as functionals of Poisson random measures are described. We describe a unified posterior analysis of classes of discrete random probability which identifies and exploits features common to all these models. The analysis circumvents many of the difficult issues involved in Bayesian nonparametric calculus, including a combinatorial component. This allows one to focus on the unique features of each process which are characterized via real valued functions h. The applicability of the technique is further illustrated by obtaining explicit posterior expressions for L\'evy-Cox moving average processes within the general setting of multiplicative intensity models.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009053605000000336 in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org