Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe

We discuss potential transitions of six climatic subsystems with large-scale impact on Europe, sometimes denoted as tipping elements. These are the ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Arctic sea ice, Alpine glaciers and northern hemisphere stratospheric ozone. Each system is represented by co-authors actively publishing in the corresponding field. For each subsystem we summarize the mechanism of a potential transition in a warmer climate along with its impact on Europe and assess the likelihood for such a transition based on published scientific literature. As a summary, the ‘tipping’ potential for each system is provided as a function of global mean temperature increase which required some subjective interpretation of scientific facts by the authors and should be considered as a snapshot of our current understanding. <br/

Sea level and climate changes during OIS 5e in the Western Mediterranean

Palaeontological, geomorphological and sedimentological data supported by isotopic dating on Oxygen Isotopic Stage (OIS) 5e deposits from the Spanish Mediterranean coast, are interpreted with the aim of reconstructing climatic instability in the Northern Hemisphere. Data point to marked climatic instability during the Last Interglacial (OIS 5e), with a change in meteorological conditions and, consequently, in the sedimentary environment. The oolitic facies generated during the first part of OIS 5e (ca. 135 kyr) shift into reddish conglomeratic facies during the second part (ca. 117 kyr). Sea surface Temperature (SST) and salinity are interpreted mainly on the basis of warm Senegalese fauna, which show chronological and spatial differential distribution throughout the Western Mediterranean. Present hydrological and meteorological conditions are used also as modern analogues to reconstruct climatic variability throughout the Last Interglacial, and this variability is interpreted within the wider framework of the North Atlantic record. All the available data indicate an increase in storminess induced by an increase in the influence of northwesterlies, a slight drop of SST in the northern Western Mediterranean, and an important change in meteorological conditions at the end of OIS 5e (117 kyr). These changes correlate well with the decrease in summer insolation and with the climatic instability recorded in North Atlantic high latitudes

To meat or not to meat? New perspectives on Neanderthal ecology.

Neanderthals have been commonly depicted as top predators who met their nutritional needs by focusing entirely on meat. This information mostly derives from faunal assemblage analyses and stable isotope studies: methods that tend to underestimate plant consumption and overestimate the intake of animal proteins. Several studies in fact demonstrate that there is a physiological limit to the amount of animal proteins that can be consumed: exceeding these values causes protein toxicity that can be particularly dangerous to pregnant women and newborns. Consequently, to avoid food poisoning from meat-based diets, Neanderthals must have incorporated alternative food sources in their daily diets, including plant materials as well

Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °c anthropogenic warming and beyond

Over the past 3.5 million years, there have been several intervals when climate conditions were warmer than during the pre-industrial Holocene. Although past intervals of warming were forced differently than future anthropogenic change, such periods can provide insights into potential future climate impacts and ecosystem feedbacks, especially over centennial-to-millennial timescales that are often not covered by climate model simulations. Our observation-based synthesis of the understanding of past intervals with temperatures within the range of projected future warming suggests that there is a low risk of runaway greenhouse gas feedbacks for global warming of no more than 2 °C. However, substantial regional environmental impacts can occur. A global average warming of 1-2 °C with strong polar amplification has, in the past, been accompanied by significant shifts in climate zones and the spatial distribution of land and ocean ecosystems. Sustained warming at this level has also led to substantial reductions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with sea-level increases of at least several metres on millennial timescales. Comparison of palaeo observations with climate model results suggests that, due to the lack of certain feedback processes, model-based climate projections may underestimate long-term warming in response to future radiative forcing by as much as a factor of two, and thus may also underestimate centennial-to-millennial-scale sea-level rise.</p

Paleontological records indicate the occurrence of open woodlands in a dry inland climate at the present-day Arctic coast in western Beringia during the Last Interglacial

Permafrost records, accessible at outcrops along the coast of Oyogos Yar at the Dmitry Laptev Strait, NE-Siberia, provide unique insights into the environmental history of Western Beringia during the Last Interglacial. The remains of terrestrial and freshwater organisms, including plants, coleopterans, chironomids, cladocerans, ostracods and molluscs, have been preserved in the frozen deposits of a shallow paleo-lake and indicate a boreal climate at the present-day arctic mainland coast during the Last Interglacial. Terrestrial beetle and plant remains suggest the former existence of open forest-tundra with larch (Larix dahurica), tree alder (Alnus incana), birch and alder shrubs (Duschekia fruticosa, Betula fruticosa, Betula divaricata, Betula nana), interspersed with patches of steppe and meadows. Consequently, the tree line was shifted to at least 270 km north of its current position. Aquatic organisms, such as chironomids, cladocerans, ostracods, molluscs and hydrophytes, indicate the formation of a shallow lake as the result of thermokarst processes. Steppe plants and beetles suggest low net precipitation. Littoral pioneer plants and chironomids indicate intense lake level fluctuations due to high evaporation. Many of the organisms are thermophilous, indicating a mean air temperature of the warmest month that was greater than 13 °C, which is above the minimum requirements for tree growth. These temperatures are in contrast to the modern values of less than 4 °C in the study area. The terrestrial and freshwater organism remains were found at a coastal exposure that was only 3.5 m above sea level and in a position where they should have been under sea during the Last Interglacial when the global sea level was 6–10 m higher than the current levels. The results suggest that during the last warm stage, the site was inland, and its modern coastal situation is the result of tectonic subsidence

A NEW CARBOWAX METHOD FOR ROUTINELY PERFORMING LIPID, HEMATOXYLIN AND EOSIN AND ELASTIC STAINING TECHNIQUES ON ADJACENT FREEZE-DRIED OR FORMALIN-FIXED SECTIONS

1. A freeze-drying method is presented for the simultaneous processing of a large number of tissue specimens. 2. An infiltration medium consisting of carbowax "1000" and a blocking mixture consisting of carbowax "1000" and carbowax "4000" were developed and resulted in ribbons which could be cut as fine as 2 µ. 3. Diffusion currents encountered during flotation were obviated by the use of a General Flotation Solution consisting of potassium dichromate, glycerin and gelatin for routine sections and a Special Flotation Solution consisting of carbowax and glycerin for certain fragile tissues. 4. The application of routine stains to adjacent carbowax sections included a hematoxylin and cosin technique with good cosin differentiation and sharp hematoxylin staining, an elastic-collagen technique demonstrating distinct elastic and collagen fibers and a lipid technique with minimal fat loss. 5. This carbowax method allows for correlative, multiple staining and ultramicrochemical analysis on adjacent tissue sections. </jats:p