Vote-Buying and Reciprocity

While vote-buying is common, little is known about how politicians determine who to target. We argue that vote-buying can be sustained by an internalized norm of reciprocity. Receiving money engenders feelings of obligation. Combining survey data on vote-buying with an experiment-based measure of reciprocity, we show that politicians target reciprocal individuals. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of social preferences in determining political behavior.vote-buying, reciprocity, redistributive politics, voting, social preferences

Measuring Vulnerability: The Director's Cut

vulnerability, risk, Bulgaria

Evaluating different approaches to estimating vulnerability

A number of researchers have recently proposed a variety of different `vulnerability'measures designed to capture the welfare consequences of risk for poor households, and also proposed a variety of different approaches to estimating these various measures of household vulnerability. However, it's possible to `mix-and-match'estimators and measures. Here we conduct Monte Carlo experiments designed to explore the performance of different estimators with different measures, under different assumptions regarding the underlying economic environment. We find that when the environment is stationary, and consumption expenditures are measured without error, that the best estimator is one proposed by Chaudhuri (2001), regardless of what measure of vulnerability is employed. If the vulnerability measure is risk-sensitive, but consumption is measured with error, a simple estimator proposed by the authors(2003) generally performs best. However, when the distribution of consumption is non-stationary, a modification of an estimator proposed by Pritchett et al. (2000) performs best. Future research should focus on combining the efficiency of the Chauduri estimator with the good properties of the authors (in environments with measurement error), and Pritchett (in non-stationary environments) estimators. However, even with present technology estimating vulnerability is simple, and much more informative, and useful than are static poverty measures, provided one has at least two rounds of panel data.Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Inequality,Poverty Lines,Consumption

Brokering Votes With Information Spread Via Social Networks

Throughout much of the developing world, politicians rely on political brokers to buy votes prior to elections. We investigate how social networks help facilitate vote-buying exchanges by combining village network data of brokers and voters with broker reports of vote buying. We show that networks diffuse politically-relevant information about voters to brokers who leverage it to target voters. In particular, we find that brokers target reciprocal voters who are not registered to their party and about whom they can hear more information through their social network. These results highlight the importance of information diffusion through social networks for vote buying and ultimately for political outcomes

Measuring Strategic Uncertainty in Coordination Games

Lecture on the first SFB/TR 15 meeting, Gummersbach, July, 18 - 20, 2004This paper explores predictability of behavior in coordination games with multiple equilibria. In a laboratory experiment we measure subjects' certainty equivalents for three coordination games and one lottery. Attitudes towards strategic uncertainty in coordination games are related to risk aversion, experience seeking, gender and age. From the distribution of certainty equivalents among participating students we estimate probabilities for successful coordination in a wide range of coordination games. For many games success of coordination is predictable with a reasonable error rate. The best response of a risk neutral player is close to the global-game solution. Comparing choices in coordination games with revealed risk aversion, we estimate subjective probabilities for successful coordination. In games with a low coordination requirement, most subjects underestimate the probability of success. In games with a high coordination requirement, most subjects overestimate this probability. Data indicate that subjects have probabilistic beliefs about success or failure of coordination rather than beliefs about individual behavior of other players

Traditional Trust Measurement and the Risk Confound: An Experiment in Rural Paraguay

Play in the traditional trust experiment depends both on trust beliefs and on levels of risk aversion. We ran two experiments with a diverse set of subjects in fifteen villages of rural Paraguay, the traditional trust experiment and a new experiment measuring only risk aversion. We find that risk attitudes are highly predictive of play in the trust game. In addition, omitting risk aversion as a regressor in trust regressions signficiantly changes the coefficients of important explanatory variables such as gender and wealth. We also use data on income and bet choice to calculate players' coefficients of relative risk aversion.

Extraskeletal Ewing Sarcoma of the Gastrointestinal and Hepatobiliary Tract: Deceptive Immunophenotype Commonly Leads to Misdiagnosis.

Ewing sarcoma (ES) is an uncommon mesenchymal neoplasm that typically develops as a bone mass, although up to 30% arise in extraskeletal sites. ES of the gastrointestinal (GI) and hepatobiliary tract is rare and may be misdiagnosed as other, more common neoplasms that occur in these sites. However, the correct classification of extraskeletal ES is important for timely clinical management and prognostication. We reviewed our experience of ES in the GI and hepatobiliary tract in order to further highlight the clinicopathologic features of these neoplasms and document the potential for misdiagnosis in this setting. The archives and consultation files of 6 academic institutions were retrospectively queried for cases of ES occurring in the GI and hepatobiliary tract. The histologic slides and ancillary studies were reviewed and clinical data were retrieved for each case through the electronic medical records, when available. Twenty-three patients with ES in the GI and/or hepatobiliary tract were identified from 2000 to 2022. Of these, 11 were women and 12 were men with a median age of 38 years (range, 2 to 64). Tumor locations included the pancreas (n=5), liver (n=2), stomach (n=3), colorectum (n=3), and small intestine (n=5), as well as tumors involving multiple organs, pelvis and retroperitoneum (n=5). Tumor size varied between 2 cm and 18 cm. Twenty were primary and 3 were metastases. Of the 23 cases, only 17% were initially diagnosed as ES. The most common misdiagnoses involved various forms of neuroendocrine neoplasia due to expression of synaptophysin and other neuroendocrine markers (22%). A wide variety of diagnoses including GI stromal tumor was considered due to aberrant CD117 expression (4%). The diagnosis of ES was ultimately confirmed by detection of the EWSR1 rearrangement in 22 cases. The remaining case was diagnosed using traditional immunohistochemistry. Follow-up information was available in 20 cases, with follow-up time varying between 2 and 256 months. Six patients with follow-up died of disease between 6 and 60 months following initial presentation. Our data indicate ES in the GI and hepatobiliary tract is commonly misdiagnosed leading to a delay in therapy. In light of the attendant therapeutic and prognostic implications, ES should be considered in the differential diagnosis of any GI or hepatobiliary tumor with epithelioid and/or small round cell morphology

Digital Microbe: a genome-informed data integration framework for team science on emerging model organisms

AbstractThe remarkable pace of genomic data generation is rapidly transforming our understanding of life at the micron scale. Yet this data stream also creates challenges for team science. A single microbe can have multiple versions of genome architecture, functional gene annotations, and gene identifiers; additionally, the lack of mechanisms for collating and preserving advances in this knowledge raises barriers to community coalescence around shared datasets. “Digital Microbes” are frameworks for interoperable and reproducible collaborative science through open source, community-curated data packages built on a (pan)genomic foundation. Housed within an integrative software environment, Digital Microbes ensure real-time alignment of research efforts for collaborative teams and facilitate novel scientific insights as new layers of data are added. Here we describe two Digital Microbes: 1) the heterotrophic marine bacterium Ruegeria pomeroyi DSS-3 with &gt; 100 transcriptomic datasets from lab and field studies, and 2) the pangenome of the cosmopolitan marine heterotroph Alteromonas containing 339 genomes. Examples demonstrate how an integrated framework collating public (pan)genome-informed data can generate novel and reproducible findings.</jats:p