The many faces of fear:A synthesis of methodological variation in characterizing predation risk from carnivores

Predators affect prey by killing them directly (lethal effects) and by inducing costly antipredator behaviours in living prey (risk effects). Risk effects can strongly influence prey populations and cascade through trophic systems. A prerequisite for assessing risk effects is characterizing the spatiotemporal variation in predation risk. Risk effects research has experienced rapid growth in the last several decades. However, preliminary assessments of the resultant literature suggest that researchers characterize predation risk using a variety of techniques. The implications of this methodological variation for inference and comparability among studies have not been well recognized or formally synthesized. We couple a literature survey with a hierarchical framework, developed from established theory, to quantify the methodological variation in characterizing risk using carnivore-ungulate systems as a case study. Via this process, we documented 244 metrics of risk from 141 studies falling into at least 13 distinct subcategories within three broader categories. Both empirical and theoretical work suggest risk and its effects on prey constitute a complex, multi-dimensional process with expressions varying by spatiotemporal scale. Our survey suggests this multi-scale complexity is reflected in the literature as a whole but often underappreciated in any given study, which complicates comparability among studies and leads to an overemphasis on documenting the presence of risk effects rather than their mechanisms or scale of influence. We suggest risk metrics be placed in a more concrete conceptual framework to clarify inference surrounding risk effects and their cascading effects throughout ecosystems. We recommend studies (i) take a multi-scale approach to characterizing risk; (ii) explicitly consider 'true' predation risk (probability of predation per unit time); and (iii) use risk metrics that facilitate comparison among studies and the evaluation of multiple competing hypotheses. Addressing the pressing questions in risk effects research, including how, to what extent and on what scale they occur, requires leveraging the advantages of the many methods available to characterize risk while minimizing the confusion caused by variability in their application.The NSF Graduate Research Fellowship Program (RJM), the Michigan State University MasterCard Foundation Scholars Program (ABM), CNPq-Brasil (LA), and the University of Montana Boone and Crockett Program (JJM).http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1365-26562018-07-30cs2017Centre for Wildlife Managemen

Examining evident interdisciplinarity among prides of lion researchers

Lions (Panthera leo) have experienced dramatic population declines in recent decades and today, inhabit just a fraction of their historic range. The reasons behind these declines are many, but conflict with humans, principally motivated by lion depredation of livestock, is among the most influential. Recent calls within the scientific community have identified that wicked problems like these should be addressed using interdisciplinary approaches. Here we examined the extent to which human-lion conflict research has been interdisciplinary. We conducted an extensive review of the literature and uncovered 88 papers, published between 1990 and 2015, that assessed human-lion interaction and the ecology of lions exposed to anthropogenic disturbance. While human-lion conflict research experienced near-exponential growth (y = 8E-194e0.222x, R2= 0.76) across this time period, the number of co-authors engaged in this research changed very little (x = 3.28, se = 0.19). Moreover, co-authors of this research tended to be affiliated with units from just three highly-related STEM disciplines (biology, wildlife management, and environmental science). Comparatively, co-authors affiliated with units in the humanities and social sciences occurred in < 4% of all papers examined. Our analysis also presents a novel framework that positions human-lion conflict research as having not two dimensions, as has been commonly conceptualized, but five dimensions. These dimensions include not only the human and the lion dimensions, but also the livestock, wild prey, and environmental dimensions. None of the papers that we evaluated concurrently studied all five of these dimensions to determine their impact on human-lion conflict. Furthermore, despite the fact that human-lion conflict research was primarily developed by co-authors from STEM disciplines, the most common dimension evaluated was the human dimension which requires social science and humanities expertise. Our analysis indicates that interdisciplinarity among human-lion conflict research has historically been low. These low levels of interdisciplinarity observed from 1990 to 2015 however, are not necessarily representative of the ongoing efforts to develop more inclusive research teams. Thus, we discuss the implications of this research for the development of sustainable solutions to conserve lions and preserve human well-being and identify potential avenues forward to create more interdisciplinary prides of lion researchers

Genomic Surveillance of Yellow Fever Virus Epizootic in São Paulo, Brazil, 2016 – 2018

São Paulo, a densely inhabited state in southeast Brazil that contains the fourth most populated city in the world, recently experienced its largest yellow fever virus (YFV) outbreak in decades. YFV does not normally circulate extensively in São Paulo, so most people were unvaccinated when the outbreak began. Surveillance in non-human primates (NHPs) is important for determining the magnitude and geographic extent of an epizootic, thereby helping to evaluate the risk of YFV spillover to humans. Data from infected NHPs can give more accurate insights into YFV spread than when using data from human cases alone. To contextualise human cases, identify epizootic foci and uncover the rate and direction of YFV spread in São Paulo, we generated and analysed virus genomic data and epizootic case data from NHPs in São Paulo. We report the occurrence of three spatiotemporally distinct phases of the outbreak in São Paulo prior to February 2018. We generated 51 new virus genomes from YFV positive cases identified in 23 different municipalities in São Paulo, mostly sampled from NHPs between October 2016 and January 2018. Although we observe substantial heterogeneity in lineage dispersal velocities between phylogenetic branches, continuous phylogeographic analyses of generated YFV genomes suggest that YFV lineages spread in São Paulo at a mean rate of approximately 1km per day during all phases of the outbreak. Viral lineages from the first epizootic phase in northern São Paulo subsequently dispersed towards the south of the state to cause the second and third epizootic phases there. This alters our understanding of how YFV was introduced into the densely populated south of São Paulo state. Our results shed light on the sylvatic transmission of YFV in highly fragmented forested regions in São Paulo state and highlight the importance of continued surveillance of zoonotic pathogens in sentinel species

OC 8477 MAKING RESEARCH EASIER, BETTER AND FASTER THROUGH KNOWLEDGE SHARING AND BUILDING COMMUNITIES OF PRACTICE

BackgroundThe Global Health Network improves the health research capacity of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) by facilitating know-how and knowledge exchange between organisations, disease areas, regions and roles. We show how we use the sharing phenomenon to transform and drive health research in resource-limited settings.MethodsWe harnessed cutting-edge technology that facilitates engagement of medical researchers and healthcare professionals in low-resource settings and creates opportunity for knowledge exchange and capacity development in global health. We built highly functional digital communities of practice (CoPs) that serve as learning and sharing tools for researchers, and a gateway for sharing experience about disease research. These CoPs are intertwined with regional activities such as training workshops with health care professionals, which helps to enhance engagement and impact.ResultsWe disseminate resources with collaborators to enable research in LMICs via 37 CoPs. The data derived from these CoPs is used to identify knowledge-gaps in research capacity, as well as a guide to the development of resources and tools, such as standardised outcome measures. The network has developed 25 free peer-reviewed e-learning courses covering a wide range of topics, as well as high-quality professional development tools. We highlight the WHO-TDR Professional Development Scheme that tracks and guides training and career development. The network has trained over 33 500 professionals (with &gt;400 k courses taken) across 119 LMICs on the principles of good clinical practices ensuring the safety of research participants and the integrity and validity of research data.ConclusionThe Global Health Network is enabling research in areas where data is missing by providing tools, training, and resources whilst supporting and training research teams. The next step is to widen this impact and invite new researchers to drive and enable more and better clinical research in places and situations where evidence is still woefully lacking.</jats:sec

Examining the spatial occurrence of carnivores across a gradient of anthropogenic pressure in southern Tanzania, with a focus on the Ruaha landscape and adjacent areas

Tanzaniaâs Ruaha landscape harbours some of the most important carnivore population strongholds in East Africa. However, ongoing human-induced changes of natural habitat expose these carnivore populations to increased anthropogenic pressure, even within protected areas. Such habitat changes can disrupt carnivore distribution and species interactions, which can be detrimental for species conservation. Yet, there is limited understanding about how anthropogenic-related variables influence carnivore occurrence and interspecific interactions in this landscape, which hinders the development of strategies to conserve carnivores. In this thesis, I examined the spatial occurrence of carnivores across the gradient of anthropogenic pressure in the Ruaha landscape and adjacent areas. In the first data chapters I investigated how landscape and human-related variables influenced carnivore site occupancy and interspecific interactions in the Ruaha National Park (RNP), surrounding wildlife management area, and village lands through extensive camera-trapping data. I found a consistent and steady decline in carnivore detections with increasing distance from RNP, especially closer to human households. Large carnivores, specifically, were not detected anywhere in the village lands. There was a notable variation on the influence of anthropogenic and landscape variables to carnivore site use: large carnivores were influenced by prey biomass and anthropogenic variables, whereas mesocarnivores were largely influenced by distance to the Great Ruaha River. In addition, mesocarnivore detections were correlated with those of top-order carnivores. Furthermore, increased probability for interspecific interactions between mesocarnivores was influenced by proximity to households. Overall, I identified that the village lands were likely acting as a hard edge that limited carnivore distribution outside RNP. On my last data chapter, I investigated the determinants of carnivore habitat suitability beyond Ruaha, and generated a predictive map of highly suitable carnivore habitats for the human gradient between the Ruaha and Selous landscapes, using the lion (Panthera leo) as a key-species. Highly suitable habitats were associated with low human population density (2) and rainfall, and over 75% of these habitats were limited to protected areas, with the remainder patchily distributed across village lands. The results suggested limited potential for landscape connectivity between Ruaha and Selous. Overall, this thesis provides a rigorous assessment of the first comprehensive baseline data of carnivore spatial occurrence within a gradient of anthropogenic pressure in this landscape. The framework presented here can be used to help informing carnivore conservation planning in Ruaha, with applications elsewhere where carnivores and humans overlap.</p

Examining the spatial occurrence of carnivores across a gradient of anthropogenic pressure in southern Tanzania, with a focus on the Ruaha landscape and adjacent areas

Tanzania’s Ruaha landscape harbours some of the most important carnivore population strongholds in East Africa. However, ongoing human-induced changes of natural habitat expose these carnivore populations to increased anthropogenic pressure, even within protected areas. Such habitat changes can disrupt carnivore distribution and species interactions, which can be detrimental for species conservation. Yet, there is limited understanding about how anthropogenic-related variables influence carnivore occurrence and interspecific interactions in this landscape, which hinders the development of strategies to conserve carnivores. In this thesis, I examined the spatial occurrence of carnivores across the gradient of anthropogenic pressure in the Ruaha landscape and adjacent areas. In the first data chapters I investigated how landscape and human-related variables influenced carnivore site occupancy and interspecific interactions in the Ruaha National Park (RNP), surrounding wildlife management area, and village lands through extensive camera-trapping data. I found a consistent and steady decline in carnivore detections with increasing distance from RNP, especially closer to human households. Large carnivores, specifically, were not detected anywhere in the village lands. There was a notable variation on the influence of anthropogenic and landscape variables to carnivore site use: large carnivores were influenced by prey biomass and anthropogenic variables, whereas mesocarnivores were largely influenced by distance to the Great Ruaha River. In addition, mesocarnivore detections were correlated with those of top-order carnivores. Furthermore, increased probability for interspecific interactions between mesocarnivores was influenced by proximity to households. Overall, I identified that the village lands were likely acting as a hard edge that limited carnivore distribution outside RNP. On my last data chapter, I investigated the determinants of carnivore habitat suitability beyond Ruaha, and generated a predictive map of highly suitable carnivore habitats for the human gradient between the Ruaha and Selous landscapes, using the lion (Panthera leo) as a key-species. Highly suitable habitats were associated with low human population density (&lt;10 people/km2) and rainfall, and over 75% of these habitats were limited to protected areas, with the remainder patchily distributed across village lands. The results suggested limited potential for landscape connectivity between Ruaha and Selous. Overall, this thesis provides a rigorous assessment of the first comprehensive baseline data of carnivore spatial occurrence within a gradient of anthropogenic pressure in this landscape. The framework presented here can be used to help informing carnivore conservation planning in Ruaha, with applications elsewhere where carnivores and humans overlap.</p

Human-carnivore conflict in Tanzania: modelling the spatial distribution of lions (Panthera leo), leopards (Panthera pardus) and spotted hyaenas (Crocuta crocuta), and their attacks upon livestock, in Tanzania’s Ruaha landscape

Tanzania’s Ruaha landscape is an international priority area for large carnivore conservation, harbouring roughly 10% of the world’s lions, and important populations of leopards and spotted hyaenas. However, these large carnivore populations are threatened by intense retaliatory killing due to human-carnivore conflict on village land around Ruaha National Park (RNP), mostly as a result of livestock predation by lions, leopards and spotted hyaenas. Moreover, a current lack of ecological data on the distribution of these carnivores hinders the development of effective strategies for conservation and targeted conflict mitigation in this landscape. This study aimed to identify the most significant ecogeographical variables (EGVs) influencing the distribution of lions, leopards and spotted hyaenas across the Ruaha landscape, and to map areas of conservation importance for these species. In addition, the study assessed the influence of EGVs on livestock predation risk by these carnivores in the village land around RNP, and generated a predictive map of predation risk. The relative importance of livestock husbandry practices and EGVs in terms of influencing predation risk within enclosures was also investigated. Proximity to rivers was the most important variable influencing the distribution of large carnivores in Ruaha, and contributed to predation risk of grazing livestock. The traditional livestock husbandry adopted in bomas appeared insufficient to alleviate the inherent risk of predation by large carnivores. The study produced the first detailed maps of lion, leopard and spotted hyaena distribution in the critically important Ruaha landscape, and identified likely livestock depredation hotspots. These results will target conflict mitigation approaches around Ruaha, by identifying particularly high-risk areas for livestock enclosures and grazing stock. Improving husbandry in these areas could help reduce livestock depredation and retaliatory carnivore killing, therefore reducing one of the most significant conservation threats in this critically important landscape.</p

Using landscape and bioclimatic features to predict the distribution of lions, leopards and spotted hyaenas in Tanzania's Ruaha landscape.

Tanzania's Ruaha landscape is an international priority area for large carnivores, supporting over 10% of the world's lions and important populations of leopards and spotted hyaenas. However, lack of ecological data on large carnivore distribution and habitat use hinders the development of effective carnivore conservation strategies in this critical landscape. Therefore, the study aimed to (i) identify the most significant ecogeographical variables influencing the potential distribution of lions, leopards and spotted hyaenas across the Ruaha landscape; (ii) identify zones with highest suitability for harbouring those species; and (iii) use species distribution modelling algorithms (SDMs) to define important areas for conservation of large carnivores. Habitat suitability was calculated based on environmental features from georeferenced presence-only carnivore location data. Potential distribution of large carnivores appeared to be strongly influenced by water availability; highly suitable areas were situated close to rivers and experienced above average annual precipitation. Net primary productivity and tree cover also exerted some influence on habitat suitability. All three species showed relatively narrow niche breadth and low tolerance to changes in habitat characteristics. From 21,050 km2 assessed, 8.1% (1,702 km2) emerged as highly suitable for all three large carnivores collectively. Of that area, 95.4% (1,624 km2) was located within 30 km of the Park-village border, raising concerns about human-carnivore conflict. This was of particular concern for spotted hyaenas, as they were located significantly closer to the Park boundary than lions and leopards. This study provides the first map of potential carnivore distribution across the globally important Ruaha landscape, and demonstrates that SDMs can be effective for understanding large carnivore habitat requirements in poorly sampled areas. This approach could have relevance for many other important wildlife areas that only have limited, haphazard presence-only data, but which urgently require strategic conservation planning

Human-carnivore conflict in Tanzania: modelling the spatial distribution of lions (Panthera leo), leopards (Panthera pardus) and spotted hyaenas (Crocuta crocuta), and their attacks upon livestock, in Tanzania’s Ruaha landscape

Tanzania’s Ruaha landscape is an international priority area for large carnivore conservation, harbouring roughly 10% of the world’s lions, and important populations of leopards and spotted hyaenas. However, these large carnivore populations are threatened by intense retaliatory killing due to human-carnivore conflict on village land around Ruaha National Park (RNP), mostly as a result of livestock predation by lions, leopards and spotted hyaenas. Moreover, a current lack of ecological data on the distribution of these carnivores hinders the development of effective strategies for conservation and targeted conflict mitigation in this landscape. This study aimed to identify the most significant ecogeographical variables (EGVs) influencing the distribution of lions, leopards and spotted hyaenas across the Ruaha landscape, and to map areas of conservation importance for these species. In addition, the study assessed the influence of EGVs on livestock predation risk by these carnivores in the village land around RNP, and generated a predictive map of predation risk. The relative importance of livestock husbandry practices and EGVs in terms of influencing predation risk within enclosures was also investigated. Proximity to rivers was the most important variable influencing the distribution of large carnivores in Ruaha, and contributed to predation risk of grazing livestock. The traditional livestock husbandry adopted in bomas appeared insufficient to alleviate the inherent risk of predation by large carnivores. The study produced the first detailed maps of lion, leopard and spotted hyaena distribution in the critically important Ruaha landscape, and identified likely livestock depredation hotspots. These results will target conflict mitigation approaches around Ruaha, by identifying particularly high-risk areas for livestock enclosures and grazing stock. Improving husbandry in these areas could help reduce livestock depredation and retaliatory carnivore killing, therefore reducing one of the most significant conservation threats in this critically important landscape.This thesis is not currently available in ORA

Representation of variables used for predicting the distribution of large carnivores in the Ruaha landscape.

<p>Representation of raster files used for the predictive modelling of the distribution of lions, leopards and spotted hyaenas in the Ruaha landscape. A. Elevation (m), B. Rainfall (mm), C. Slope (degrees), D. Geology – cation exchange capacity, E. Distance to rivers (km), F. NDVI, G. Distance to households (km) and H. VCF (% tree cover).</p