Interpreting the Hours-Technology time-varying relationship

We investigate the time varying relation between hours and technology shocks using a structural business cycle model. We propose an RBC model with a Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) production function that allows for capital- and labor-augmenting technology shocks. We estimate the model with Bayesian techniques. In the full sample, we find (i) evidence in favor of a less than unitary elasticity of substitution (rejecting Cobb-Douglas) and (ii) a sizable role for capital augmenting shock for business cycles fluctuations. In rolling sub-samples, we document that the transmission of technology shocks to hours worked has been varying over time. We argue that this change is due to the increase of the elasticity of factor substitution. That is, labor and capital became less complementary throughout the sample inducing a change in the sign and size of the response of hours. We conjecture that this change may have been induced by a change in the skill composition of the labor input.Hours Worked and Business Cycles, Bayesian Methods.

Smale flows on S2×S1\mathbb{S}^2\times\mathbb{S}^1

In this paper, we use abstract Lyapunov graphs as a combinatorial tool to obtain a complete classification of Smale flows on $\mathbb{S}^2\times\mathbb{S}^1$. This classification gives necessary and sufficient conditions that must be satisfied by an abstract Lyapunov graph in order for it to be associated to a Smale flow on $\mathbb{S}^2\times\mathbb{S}^1$

Unemployment Hysteresis in the US and the EU: a Panel Data Approach

This paper applies the panel unit root test proposed by Im, Pesaran and Shin (1997) to test for unemployment hysteresis in the US states and the EU countries against the alternative of a natural rate. The results show that hysteresis for the EU and the natural rate for the US states are the most plausible hypotheses

Net Foreign Assets, Productivity and Real Exchange Rates in Constrained Economies

Empirical evidence suggests that real exchange rates (RER) behave differently in developed and developing countries. We develop an exogenous 2-sector growth model in which RER determination depends on the country's capacity to borrow from international capital markets. The country faces a constraint on capital inflows. With high domestic savings, the country converges to the world per capita income and RER only depends on productivity spread between sectors (Balassa-Samuelson effect). If the constraint is too tight and/or domestic savings too low, RER depends on both net foreign assets (transfer effect) and productivity. We then analyze the empirical implications of the model and find that, in accordance with the theory, RER is mainly driven by productivity and net foreign assets in constrained countries and exclusively by productivity in unconstrained countries.Real exchange rate; capital inflows constraint; overlapping generations

Unemployment, hysteresis and transition

We quantify the degree of persistence in unemployment rates of transition countries using a variety of methods benchmarked against the EU. In part of the paper, we work with the concept of linear "Hysteresis" as described by the presence of unit roots in unemployment. Since this is potentially a narrow definition, we also take into account the existence of structural breaks and non-linear dynamics in unemployment. Finally, we examine whether CEECs' unemployment presents features of multiple equilibria: if it remains locked into a new level whenever a structural change occurs. Our findings show that, in general, we can reject the unit root hypothesis after controlling for structural changes and business cycle effects, but we can observe the presence of a high and low unemployment equilibria. The speed of adjustment is faster for CEECs than the EU, although CEECs tend to move more frequently between equilibria. JEL Classification: E24, C22, C23Hysteresis, Markov switching, Transition, Unemployment, Unit Root

Identifying the elasticity of substitution with biased technical change

Despite being critical parameters in many economic fields, the received wisdom, in theoretical and empirical literatures, states that joint identification of the elasticity of capital-labor substitution and technical bias is infeasible. This paper challenges that pessimistic interpretation. Putting the new approach of "normalized" production functions at the heart of a Monte Carlo analysis we identify the conditions under which identification is feasible and robust. The key result is that the jointly modeling the production function and first-order conditions is superior to single-equation approaches in terms of robustly capturing production and technical parameters, especially when merged with "normalization". Our results will have fundamental implications for production-function estimation under non-neutral technical change, for understanding the empirical relevance of normalization and the variability underlying past empirical studies. JEL Classification: C22, E23, O30, 051Constant Elasticity of Substitution, Factor Income share, Factor-Augmenting Technical Change, Identification, Monte Carlo, Normalization

German wage moderation and European imbalances: Feeding the Global VAR with theor

German labor market reforms in the 1990s and 2000s are generally believed to have driven the large increase in the dispersion of current account balances in the Euro Area. We investigate this hypothesis quantitatively. We develop an open economy New Keynesian model with search and matching frictions from which we derive robust sign restrictions for a wage bargaining shock. We then impose these restrictions on a Global VAR consisting of Germany and 8 EMU countries to identify a wage bargaining shock in Germany. Our results show that, although the German current account was significantly affected by wage bargaining shocks, their contribution to European current account imbalances was negligible. We conclude that the reduction in bargaining power of German unions after labor market reforms cannot be the lone driver of European imbalances

The choice of CES production techniques and balanced growth

We show that allowing firms a choice of CES production techniques (via the distribution parameter between capital and labor) can result in a new class of production functions that produces short-run capital-labor complementarity but yields a long-run unit elasticity of substitution. This is shown to occur if we provide a mathematical framework for this choice that maintains strict essentiality of the production process and satisfies the requirement of unit-invariance. The class of production functions derived are consistent with a balanced growth path even in the presence of capital-augmenting technical progress. The approach yields a simple yet powerful way of introducing CES-type production functions in macroeconomic models