Operational seasonal and interannual predictions of ocean conditions

Dr. Leetmaa described current work at the U.S. National Meteorological Center (NMC) on coupled systems leading to a seasonal prediction system. He described the way in which ocean thermal data is quality controlled and used in a four dimensional data assimilation system. This consists of a statistical interpolation scheme, a primitive equation ocean general circulation model, and the atmospheric fluxes that are required to force this. This whole process generated dynamically consist thermohaline and velocity fields for the ocean. Currently routine weekly analyses are performed for the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. These analyses are used for ocean climate diagnostics and as initial conditions for coupled forecast models. Specific examples of output products were shown both in the Pacific and the Atlantic Ocean

Effects of Market Reforms in the Former Soviet Union on World Grain Trade: Results From A Multi-Market Wheat Trade Model

International Relations/Trade,

HOW SIGNIFICANT ARE EXPORT SUBSIDIES TO AGRICULTURAL TRADE? TRADE AND WELFARE IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBAL REFORMS

We analyze the impacts of removing export subsidies with or without reforms to domestic support and tariffs using a multi-country trade model. Model simulations are designed to assess both the magnitude and the direction of trade in the absence of export subsidies in connection with other domestic distortions and import barriers. Results show that the impacts of export subsidy removal, while significant for some countries and products, are comparatively smaller and are dominated by the much larger trade and welfare distortions imposed by import barriers. Hence, the removal of domestic subsidies, including export subsidies, by themselves may not be sufficient to improve global welfare and expand trade since the welfare gains by the net exporters are far outweighed by the losses of net importers. One implication from these simulations is that export subsidy reform must be combined with market access liberalization in order to benefit exporters and importers and to attract the widest support among WTO members.International Relations/Trade,

KMCLib: A general framework for lattice kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations

KMCLib is a general framework for lattice kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations. The program can handle simulations of the diffusion and reaction of millions of particles in one, two, or three dimensions, and is designed to be easily extended and customized by the user to allow for the development of complex custom KMC models for specific systems without having to modify the core functionality of the program. Analysis modules and on-the-fly elementary step diffusion rate calculations can be implemented as plugins following a well-defined API. The plugin modules are loosely coupled to the core KMCLib program via the Python scripting language. KMCLib is written as a Python module with a backend C++ library. After initial compilation of the backend library KMCLib is used as a Python module; input to the program is given as a Python script executed using a standard Python interpreter. We give a detailed description of the features and implementation of the code and demonstrate its scaling behavior and parallel performance with a simple one-dimensional A-B-C lattice KMC model and a more complex three-dimensional lattice KMC model of oxygen-vacancy diffusion in a fluorite structured metal oxide. KMCLib can keep track of individual particle movements and includes tools for mean square displacement analysis, and is therefore particularly well suited for studying diffusion processes at surfaces and in solids

TRADE POLICY AND ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY: THE CASE OF EXPORT SUBSIDIES

The United States and the European Union both employ export subsidies to stimulate wheat trade and to increase their competitiveness in world markets. The environmental consequences of these policies are being questioned. We simulate reducing or removing export subsidies for wheat from the United States and the EU using a multicountry partial equilibrium model, and we analyze the impact of export subsidy policy reform on nitrogen fertilizer and other chemical use. Our findings indicate that the U.S. EEP program cannot be blamed for environmental degradation in terms of nitrate leaching, while EU wheat subsides make only a small contribution to nitrate pollution.Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade,

SUPPLY RESPONSE IN FRANCE, GERMANY, AND THE UK: TECHNOLOGY AND PRICE

We extend the methodology of a two-step profit function to obtain area and yield elasticities. We then estimate the effects of price and technology on crop output of France, Germany, and the UK. Area elasticities were obtained by adding area shadow price equations to the standard dual model of output and input equations. Change in output is dominated by technology in the UK and mixed in France and Germany. The results indicate policies affecting price will have diverse responses across countries and crops.Demand and Price Analysis,

Ethnic Dimensions of Suburbanisation in Estonia

Large scale suburbanisation is a relatively recent phenomenon in East Central Europe and responsible for major socio-spatial changes in metropolitan areas. Little is known about the ethnic dimensions of this process. However, large minority population groups, mainly ethnic Russians, remained into the former member states of the Soviet Union after its dissolution in 1991. We use individual level Estonia Census data in order to investigate the ethnic dimensions of suburbanisation. The results show that ethnic minorities have a considerably lower probability to suburbanise compared to the majority population, and minorities are less likely to move to rural municipalities – the main sites of suburban change – in the suburban ring of cities. Individual characteristics that measure strong ties with the majority population and host society exert a positive effect on ethnic minority suburbanization, and on settling in rural municipalities.suburbanisation, ethnicity, Census data, East Central Europe, Estonia

Wheat Cleaning and its Effect on U.S. Wheat Exports

This analysis shows that there could be net gains to the U.S. wheat industry if all U.S. export wheat were to be cleaned to a dockage level between 0.35 to 0.40 percent. These results are based on survey results of major importers of U.S. wheat, and a model of world wheat trade. Larger benefits to the U.S. wheat industry would be possible from cleaning only wheat destined to countries that demand higher quality U.S. wheat. However, these gains in export revenue from selling cleaner wheat could be offset if other exporters, especially Canada, responded in ways that would maintain their market share.wheat, grain quality, trade model, Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade,

EXPORT COMPETITION: ISSUES AND OPTIONS IN THE AGRICULTURAL NEGOTIATIONS

International Relations/Trade,