Early prediction of median survival among a large AIDS surveillance cohort

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>For individuals with AIDS, data exist relatively soon after diagnosis to allow estimation of "early" survival quantiles (<it>e.g.</it>, the 0.10, 0.15, 0.20 and 0.30 quantiles, etc.). Many years of additional observation must elapse before median survival, a summary measure of survival, can be estimated accurately. In this study, a new approach to predict AIDS median survival is presented and its accuracy tested using AIDS surveillance data.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The data consisted of 96,373 individuals who were reported to the HIV/AIDS Reporting System of the California Department of Health Services Office of AIDS as of December 31, 1996. We defined cohorts based on quarter year of diagnosis (<it>e.g.</it>, the "931" cohort consists of individuals diagnosed with AIDS in the first quarter of 1993). We used early quantiles (estimated using the Inverse Probability of Censoring Weighted estimator) of the survival distribution to estimate median survival by assuming a linear relationship between the earlier quantiles and median survival. From this model, median survival was predicted for cohorts for which a median could not be estimated empirically from the available data. This prediction was compared with the actual medians observed when using updated survival data reported at least five years later.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Using the 0.15 quantile as the predictor and the data available as of December 31, 1996, we were able to predict the median survival of four cohorts (933, 934, 941, and 942) to be 34, 34, 31, and 29 months. Without this approach, there were insufficient data with which to make any estimate of median survival. The actual median survival of these four cohorts (using data as of December 31, 2001) was found to be 32, 40, 46, and 80 months, suggesting that the accuracy for this approach requires a minimum of three years to elapse from diagnosis to the time an accurate prediction can be made.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The results of this study suggest that early and accurate prediction of median survival time after AIDS diagnosis may be possible using early quantiles of the survival distribution. The methodology did not seem to work well during a period of significant change in survival as observed with highly active antiretroviral treatment, but results suggest that it may work well in a time of more gradual improvement in survival.</p

Risk Behaviors for Reproductive Tract Infection in Women Who Have Sex with Women in Beijing, China

OBJECTIVES: To assess risk behaviors for reproductive tract infections (RTI) including sexually transmitted infections (STI) among women who have sex with women (WSW) in Beijing, China. METHODS: A cross-sectional study of women recruited from venues and internet outreach analyzed using interviews. RESULTS: We recruited 224 WSW, among whom were 37 couples. The average age of participants was 25.6 years. Sex with men in the past year was reported by 10.7% of participants. During the past year, 34.3% (77/224) had had >1 sexual partner and 72.4% (162/224) had ever had >1 sexual partner. Condom use in the last sex with a man was reported by 54.2% (13/24) of women; 12.5% (3/24) reported never having used a condom with a man in the past year. In the past year, 13.4% (30/224) reported using sex toys with their female partners; of these, 43.3% (13/30) reported consistent condom use with the sex toys and 36.7% (11/30) had shared sex toys. Among participants 65.2% (120/184) reported that their "G-spot" had been stimulated during sex, 49.2% (59/120) of whom reported bleeding during or after sex. Only 12.5% (8/64) of those never reporting "G spot" stimulation reported bleeding during or after sex (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: WSW in Beijing engaged in high-risk sexual behaviors that may carry a substantial risk of being infected with STI/RTI. To implement STI/RTI prevention and intervention among women, women-women sexual behavior should be considered when doing research and intervention programs