The development of passive health surveillance by a sentinel network of family practitioners in South Africa

Objective. For the South African Sentinel Practitioner Research Network (SASPREN), a volunteer network of family practitioners in South Africa, to develop a health surveillance system through the surveillance of important health events.Motivation. The incidence of important preventable diseases and the burden of disease are not reliably known in South Africa, both in the public and private sector. Incidence rates determined at primary care level could help with planning and delivery of appropriate health services and monitoring of the impact of intervention programmes.Methods. Altogether 183 sentinel practitioners were recruited in nine provinces, from 2 478 doctors invited to participate. Of these 120 were active in reporting all their new cases of 13 selected health events to the study centre on mailed postcards. After data-capturing, incidence rates were calculated for defined periods. Feedback was given to the sentinels through a newsletter and personalised reports.Results. A network of sentinel family practitioners has been established in South Africa, and can provide incidence rates for both diseases and interventions through a simple and cheap surveillance system. The calculated rates demonstrated periodic trends for certain events, as well as inter-provincial, -gender and -population group differences.Conclusions. As the validity of the dataset and its generalisation to the whole population is uncertain, its usefulness as point estimates of incidence rates isunknown. This information serves as an important pointer for further research. The trends of these rates may provide a valuable tool for monitoring the impact of public health policies

The need to incorporate the impact of population ageing into the postCOVID-19 policy and planning reset in low and middle income countries

The COVID-19 pandemic is likely to widen the health care demand-supply gap, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The virus has had the greatest impact on older persons in terms of morbidity and mortality, and is occurring at a time of rapid population ageing, which is happening three times faster in LMICs than in high-income countries. Addressing the demand-supply gap in a post-COVID-19 era, in which resources are further constrained, will require a major ‘reset’ of the health system. In this article, we argue that the impact of ageing populations needs to be factored into the post-COVID-19 policy and planning reset including explicit, transparent prioritisation processes

SARS-CoV-2 cases reported from long-term residential facilities (care homes) in South Africa: a retrospective cohort study

Background Globally, long-term care facilities (LTCFs) experienced a large burden of deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study aimed to describe the temporal trends as well as the characteristics and risk factors for mortality among residents and staff who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 in selected LTCFs across South Africa. Method We analysed data reported to the DATCOV sentinel surveillance system by 45 LTCFs. Outbreaks in LTCFs were defined as large if more than one-third of residents and staff had been infected or there were more than 20 epidemiologically linked cases. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess risk factors for mortality amongst LTCF residents. Results A total of 2324 SARS-CoV-2 cases were reported from 5 March 2020 through 31 July 2021; 1504 (65%) were residents and 820 (35%) staff. Among LTCFs, 6 reported sporadic cases and 39 experienced outbreaks. Of those reporting outbreaks, 10 (26%) reported one and 29 (74%) reported more than one outbreak. There were 48 (66.7%) small outbreaks and 24 (33.3%) large outbreaks reported. There were 30 outbreaks reported in the first wave, 21 in the second wave and 15 in the third wave, with 6 outbreaks reporting between waves. There were 1259 cases during the first COVID-19 wave, 362 during the second wave, and 299 during the current third wave. The case fatality ratio was 9% (138/1504) among residents and 0.5% (4/820) among staff. On multivariable analysis, factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 mortality among LTCF residents were age 40–59 years, 60–79 years and ≥ 80 years compared to < 40 years and being a resident in a LTCF in Free State or Northern Cape compared to Western Cape. Compared to pre-wave 1, there was a decreased risk of mortality in wave 1, post-wave 1, wave 2, post-wave 2 and wave 3. Conclusion The analysis of SARS-CoV-2 cases in sentinel LTCFs in South Africa points to an encouraging trend of decreasing numbers of outbreaks, cases and risk for mortality since the first wave. LTCFs are likely to have learnt from international experience and adopted national protocols, which include improved measures to limit transmission and administer early and appropriate clinical care

Predicting Spike Occurrence and Neuronal Responsiveness from LFPs in Primary Somatosensory Cortex

Local Field Potentials (LFPs) integrate multiple neuronal events like synaptic inputs and intracellular potentials. LFP spatiotemporal features are particularly relevant in view of their applications both in research (e.g. for understanding brain rhythms, inter-areal neural communication and neronal coding) and in the clinics (e.g. for improving invasive Brain-Machine Interface devices). However the relation between LFPs and spikes is complex and not fully understood. As spikes represent the fundamental currency of neuronal communication this gap in knowledge strongly limits our comprehension of neuronal phenomena underlying LFPs. We investigated the LFP-spike relation during tactile stimulation in primary somatosensory (S-I) cortex in the rat. First we quantified how reliably LFPs and spikes code for a stimulus occurrence. Then we used the information obtained from our analyses to design a predictive model for spike occurrence based on LFP inputs. The model was endowed with a flexible meta-structure whose exact form, both in parameters and structure, was estimated by using a multi-objective optimization strategy. Our method provided a set of nonlinear simple equations that maximized the match between models and true neurons in terms of spike timings and Peri Stimulus Time Histograms. We found that both LFPs and spikes can code for stimulus occurrence with millisecond precision, showing, however, high variability. Spike patterns were predicted significantly above chance for 75% of the neurons analysed. Crucially, the level of prediction accuracy depended on the reliability in coding for the stimulus occurrence. The best predictions were obtained when both spikes and LFPs were highly responsive to the stimuli. Spike reliability is known to depend on neuron intrinsic properties (i.e. on channel noise) and on spontaneous local network fluctuations. Our results suggest that the latter, measured through the LFP response variability, play a dominant role

Final results from the PERUSE study of first-line pertuzumab plus trastuzumab plus a taxane for HER2-positive locally recurrent or metastatic breast cancer, with a multivariable approach to guide prognostication

Background: The phase III CLinical Evaluation Of Pertuzumab And TRAstuzumab (CLEOPATRA) trial established the combination of pertuzumab, trastuzumab and docetaxel as standard first-line therapy for human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive locally recurrent/metastatic breast cancer (LR/mBC). The multicentre single-arm PERtUzumab global SafEty (PERUSE) study assessed the safety and efficacy of pertuzumab and trastuzumab combined with investigator-selected taxane in this setting. Patients and methods: Eligible patients with inoperable HER2-positive LR/mBC and no prior systemic therapy for LR/mBC (except endocrine therapy) received docetaxel, paclitaxel or nab-paclitaxel with trastuzumab and pertuzumab until disease progression or unacceptable toxicity. The primary endpoint was safety. Secondary endpoints included progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Prespecified subgroup analyses included subgroups according to taxane, hormone receptor (HR) status and prior trastuzumab. Exploratory univariable analyses identified potential prognostic factors; those that remained significant in multivariable analysis were used to analyse PFS and OS in subgroups with all, some or none of these factors. Results: Of 1436 treated patients, 588 (41%) initially received paclitaxel and 918 (64%) had HR-positive disease. The most common grade 653 adverse events were neutropenia (10%, mainly with docetaxel) and diarrhoea (8%). At the final analysis (median follow-up: 5.7 years), median PFS was 20.7 [95% confidence interval (CI) 18.9-23.1] months overall and was similar irrespective of HR status or taxane. Median OS was 65.3 (95% CI 60.9-70.9) months overall. OS was similar regardless of taxane backbone but was more favourable in patients with HR-positive than HR-negative LR/mBC. In exploratory analyses, trastuzumab-pretreated patients with visceral disease had the shortest median PFS (13.1 months) and OS (46.3 months). Conclusions: Mature results from PERUSE show a safety and efficacy profile consistent with results from CLEOPATRA and median OS exceeding 5 years. Results suggest that paclitaxel is a valid alternative to docetaxel as backbone chemotherapy. Exploratory analyses suggest risk factors that could guide future trial design

“They don’t care about us”: older people’s experiences of primary healthcare in Cape Town, South Africa

Abstract Background As older people age, they have different health needs compared to younger people. South African elder care policy places a strong emphasis on ageing in community rather than institutional settings, but the primary healthcare system is not geared to address the health needs of older people living in community settings. Methods This paper presents findings of nine focus groups conducted with community-dwelling older adults in three areas (high, medium and low-income) in Cape Town, South Africa over 2 months in 2017. These discussions addressed primary health services available to older persons, their ability to access these services and their expectations and experiences of care. Results Findings showed that while participants in the high-income area had few challenges accessing quality care or support services, services available in lower-income areas were much less responsive and participants displayed low trust in the healthcare system, feeling that their needs were overlooked. Participants who experienced poor doctor-patient communication often failed to comply with treatment, while those who experienced patient-centered communication, either through the private sector or NGO-public sector partnerships had better perceptions of care. Conclusions Older persons’ complex health needs cannot be adequately addressed by a process-driven approach to care. Supporting patient-centered communication and care may help health workers to understand older persons health needs and improve patient understanding, trust and co-operation. This paper suggests the importance of community support services in enhancing health access and developing systems that enable healthcare providers to better understand and respond to older persons’ needs in resource-constrained settings